Little Big League

Twins Offseason is NOT that bad.

2010-12-27T14:10:00.001-08:00

To all of you who are in code red mode over the Twins offseason (JACK) chill the F out. No they have not gone out an gotten an impact player or try to get a front line starter, but has their team really suffered that much of a regression? NO! Look at the projected lineup compared to last season opening day group.

2010
Span
Hudson
Mauer
Morneau
Kubel
Cuddyer
Young
Hardy
Punto

2011
Span
Nishioka
Mauer
Morneau
Young
Kubel
Cuddyer
Valencia
Casilla

No real reason to freak out over this. When you have a guy who hit .311 last year hitting 8th for you I think that is a reason to just say hey its going to be ok. And you O YEAH you have 2 MVPs hitting 3-4 for you. Relax.

As for pitching I have to admit, I was looking for the Twins to make an offer to go get Zack Grienke, but the Royals stayed true to their word and that they did not want to send their Cy Young winner to a division opponent. And that is understandable. Did the Royals get a good return? I am not sure. Did the Twins have a collection of guys to match that offer (yes but it would have crippled what is already a suspect system). Matching up the players Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Orodozzi, and Jeremey Jeffress, Seth Stohs said that a similar offer would have been Ben Revere(athletic toolsy outfielder), Nishioka(because the Twins have 0 infield prospects worth mentioning), Kyle Gibson(Orodozi was ranked 1st in Brewers system and is younger and has higher ceiling then Gibson) and Carlos Gutierrez(big bullpen arm but not as good as Jeffress). Looking at this, Bill Smith and many Twins fans are very high on these 4 guys. Are they worth trading? Maybe, but it would have taken a 5th player (beacuse of being in AL Central) or possibly Miguel Sano to make a 4 player deal happen. That is not worth it? Hell no.

With the bullpen seeming to be in shambles, all I have to say is it is still early. First thing is first. In no planet, galaxy, or parallel universe would I give Matt Gurrier, or Jesse Crain 5 million dollars per year and that is what they pretty much got. Guerrier is a guy that literally is a the definition of playing with a rabbits foot in his back pocket. How did that guy ever pitch so many inning without guys starting to rake on him is amazing to me. We saw at the end at the middle of last season. Bill Smith made a great point, that they basically found Matt off the side of the road and he pitched his way into being a late inning guy. It is very possible that someone like Jeff Manship (little bit better stuff) could fit right into a Matt Gurrier mold but in a different role. Moving on the Crain, we have seen him at his best and we have seen him at his worst. Might I just say the bad outweighs the good with him. When he is bad you are amazed that he even has a professional career or as Jack would say (pump my gas you bum). The White Sox are asking this guy to close which is comical to me. This is going to end very badly for Chicago and Crain. He will not be that 5 million dollar back end closer. He is blow a lot of saves and frustrate a lot of fans, and Ozzie, Hawk and Ken Williams will want to cut him outright after the first few horrific blown save.

I know I am rambling. Almost done. If there is a guy that Minensota should considering bringing back its Brian Fuentes. He is the perfect fit for Minnesota. He would like to close but he is probably not going to get the opportunity. Minnesota should be able to get him back at 2 years 12 or 13 million. Its a lot but its not out of the question for him to get some save chances with Matt Capps and Joe Nathan not being guarantees shut down guys for their own reasons.

Filling in the rest of the bullpen I am completely ok with going in house. There is a lot of talent almost major league ready. And no I am not talking about Anthony Slama. I have come to the conclusion he sucks and gets by with tricky junk and not good stuff. Guys to look out for in 2011.

Carlos Gutierrez, AAA, 24, 2008 first rounder has a heavy 95 MPH sinker and a decent enough slider to keep hitters honest. Needs to work on control but he is someone who walks people because his fastball has so much movement.

Billy Bullock AA, 23 2009 second rounder also has a huge fastball, slider combo that helped him rack up 105K in 74 innings. That is just nasty.

Alex Burnett AAA, 23, showed a lot of promise in his stint with Twins but seemed to get a little over whelmed. I still like his stuff, he has 4 good pitches and is not afraid to go right after hitters.

Jim Hoey AAA 27, main part of the JJ Hardy deal is in line to make his return to the majors. He has a good fastball and also racks up big K numbers (70 in 52 innings)

Dakota Watts AA, 23, Baseball America rated that Watts has the best fastball in the system. Sits in upper 90s. He will return to AA but has a ton of upside.

Ok so you see what I am talking about. I just named 5 guys who all have a chance to make huge additions to the Twins bullpen. And they are not the lame strike throwing weineies. They go after you with power stuff and say here is my fastball, its 95MPH if you have the testicular fortitude to hit it then fucking try.

Bill Smith is doing what I expected him to do. Harness the storm that is the Joe Mauer contract and arbitration increases. It will somewhat hinder what the Twins can do, but I still do not doubt Smith or Ron Garndehire's ability to get the best out of guys who would be bums for other teams. 2011 AL Central crown still has to run through Minnesota beacuse history says so.

I have decided to hold of on a ramble about Carl Pavano because I want to wait and see where he winds up before I draw conclusions. If he goes to a team where Twins get 2 picks then it will be Christmas part 2.

How good (or bad) are the Timberwolves?

2010-10-16T10:36:00.000-07:00

In the wake of yet another 3 game sweep of the playoffs for the Twins my attention has been drawn yet again to Timberwolves basketball, at least until November. I was overly optimistic at the beginning of the 2009 and 2010 season when I thought the Timberwolves would win somewhere between 25 and 30 games. I thought that Kevin Love and Al Jefferson would be able to coexist. 15-67 record later I look foolish. This off season David Khan is in part 2 of his secret and puzzling master plan to return Minnesota back into at least a playoff contender. It seems so long ago (6 years) since the Wolves actually were competitive.

A new look roster (again) is leaving fans somewhat optimistic that Khan and Kurt Rambis may be able to turn this thing around. The Wolves are starting to fit the mold for Khan's vision and that is a young, athletic, quick paced and sharp shooting team. You have to admit that they are young (youngest in NBA) they are athletic, they can run and they have some really good shooters. But will it translate in the court. So far this preseason the Timbewolves are 4-1 which sounds great and all but Cleveland, Golden State and Memphis are ally playing just as good if not better. What does that say? That preseason anything is not something to look at.

So..... how good are the Wolves? They are still a mystery filled with questions?

1) Will Michael Besley be the guy?

Be Eazy Beasley is now 2 years removed from his dominant year at Kansas State and after a troubling go around with Miami, Beasley is looking for a fresh start. The good news is he still has a world of talent and seems to be motivated. He also has quickly fit in to the organization and knows that the team and management has his back. He is also twenty bleeping one years old. Beasley has cemented the small forward position and will be the go to guy. At 6 feet 9 he will be able to over power most of the guys in the league but will have to work extremely hard to guard the Carmelo Anthony's and LeBron James' of the world. I am currently optimistic.

2) How will Kevin Love do now with a starting position at the 4 spot?

With the trade of Al Jefferson to Utah, Love is now finally in the starting role that he most deserves. He is one of the hardest workers in the league and one of the more creative rebounders. Although he may not have the appeal of a Bosh or a Pau, he still can be a focal point in a playoff caliber teams offense. Love's career numbers could translate to a player who could average somewhere around 17 to 20 points and 12 to 14 rebounds per game. The main question mark is how will he be able to defend?

3) How will Johnny Flynn vs Luke Ridnour turn out?

Luke Ridnour has looked pretty good in the preseason. He also seems to have a pretty good knowledge of the offense. He can bring some veteran leadership to the Wolves. What is good about this is he can possible be a even better mentor to Ricky Rubio if he decides to come over in 2011. What is bad about this is if he shows up Johnny, then it kills Flynn's trade value. Minnesota had an opportunity to move Flynn to Indiana for the number 10 pick. If he struggles again in year 2 by not running the offense properly, taking care of the ball and at least playing average defense, then we can start talking disaster considering what he was taken ahead of at the 6th pick. I do not need to repeat but I will anyway (Stephen Currny, Brandon Jennings).

4) Is Darko worth $20 million dollars?

I still think no, along with every other human out there but for what Minnesota is asking him to do and seeing that Brendan Heywood and Ahmir Johnson got max contracts, it may not be as bad as people think? However if Darko does not at least live up to the potential that Khan thinks he has (which is a solid NBA center), and DeMarcus Cousins ends up a superstar, people will want to riot. Darko will be pushed by Nikola Pekovic for playing time, who has been at times beastly in games.

5) Can Wes Johnson live up to 4th overall pick expectations?

I actually went over what this team could have looked liked dozens of times. If Minnesota traded Johnny Flynn for Pacers for 10th pick they then could have taken DeMarcus Cousins at 4 and Paul George (similar to Wes) at 10 and then go into season with starting rotation of Cousins, Love, Beasley, Brewer, and Ridnour with potential that a 6 feet 9 George would take over at SG soon enough and then Rubio dishing to all these monster next year. But that was my mind just wandering about a team that would start 4 guys between 6-9 and 6-11.

But seriously though. Wes needs to be good. Really good. It is already expected that Cousins is going to be a 20 and 10 center with Sacramento and he will definitely pair well with Tryreke Evans. But for Wes who was taken a pick ahead to not have similar expectations is already a drag. What's good is that Johnson is already the best athlete and the best shooter on the team. He can play very good on ball defense and should at times cause match up problems. Main question mark for him is if he can handle the ball enough to create his own shot. We have seen some sloppy play from Johnson so far this preseason and for a kid who is a 23 year old rookie (same age as veteran teammate Martell Webster) there is not much more room for error. In recent drafts we have seen what can happen to Minnesota getting caught up on taking system players rather then best on board. You get Stephon Marbury over Ray Allen or Kobe Bryant or Randy Foye over Brandon Roy or even Rudy Gay or Johnny Flynn over Stephen Curry. This may be 5th on the list but in my opinion is the most important. Wes Johnson needs to live up to being a top 4 pick. And Khan and Rambis need to just let the kid play and not hold him back.

Looking Back

2010-09-22T05:19:00.000-07:00

In an unlike Twins fashion of the past few season, Minnesota was able to lock up the AL Central title without playing 163 games. This team has had its fair share of ups and downs but are now in position to try and get healthy and set up the rotation for the playoffs. We can see how much this actually means after last season Minnesota won game 163 in a 5 hour marathon then the next night had to face CC Sabathia in game 1 of the playoffs.

We all have preseason predictions and I just want to see what I got right.

AL East: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Oriels, Toronto Blue Jays
AL West: LA Angels, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
AL Central: Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners

I got New York and Minnesota right. But right after the first month I felt dumb giving to much into the recent history of Boston and LAA as neither team did what they set out to do.

AL MVP: Derek Jeter (writers feel bad that he still does not have one)
I picked Jeter because writers feel bad for him. Josh Hamilton will win this.
AL Cy Young: John Lester Red Sox
Lester had a solid year but Felix is the best pitcher in baseball and CC sadly will win the Cy.
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz Rangers (as a starting pitcher) RIGHT? Closer.
Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire Twins RIGHT!
Comeback Player of the Year: Fausto Carmona Indians and Fransisco Liriano Twins
Both definitely had comeback years but what Liriano is doing is award worthy.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, Washington Nationals, New York Mets; solid battle out in the NL East but the Phillies have taken over.
NL Central: St Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates (Cardinals might be the biggest bust of 2010 with that pitching and that lineup. But good for the Reds)
NL West: Colorado Rockies, LA Dodgers, San Fransisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres (The Rockies are still in it in what is the funnest division race but my last place team San Diego has played terrific in 2010.)
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves, LA Dodgers, Florida Marlins, San Fransisco Giants RIGHT!

NL MVP: Ryan Braun Brewers (Will go to Joey Votto)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay Phillies (over under for Halladay wins will be set at 22)RIGTH and Halladay has 20 wins with 2 starts left.
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward Braves (edges out Stephen Strasburg Nationals)Strasburg had it until that terrible injury, but Heyward will be in a dog race with Jamie Garcia. If you are wondering as I was, Mat Latos did not qualify because he had 50.2 innings last year. 2 effing outs away. Sheesh.
NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox Braves (go out into the sunset) Sorda right but it will go to Padres manager Bud Black for making something out of nothing.
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Manny Ramirez Dodgers (also go out into the sunset lol) More of a joke on me for thinking this. Award will go to idk?

ALDS
Twins beat Red Sox 3-2
Yankees beat Angels 3-1
NLDS
Cardinals beat Braves 3-1
Phillies beat Rockies 3-2
ALCS
Yankees beat Twins 4-2, MVP CC Sabathia
NLCS
Phillies beat Cardinals 4-3, MVP Chase Utley
World Series
Phillies beat Yankees 4-2, MVP Roy Halladay (all TBD but lets hope its different)

Other Twins predictions
90+ wins will be enough to win AL Central (RIGHT and counting)
93+ wins will be enough to not have to play New York in ALDS (RIGHT because we will host Tampa)
Twins have just as good of team as the Red Sox or the Angels (They were better)
Joe Mauer will not have a decrease in power this year 25+ home runs is a lock. (Target Field is fucking HUGE! So I was bloody wrong)
Denard Span will steal 30 bases (currently at 23 projected for 25 so wrong)
Delmon Young will play at least 140 games and set career highs in HR and steals (career year with HR slugging and RBI)
John Rauch will have at least 20 saves. RIGHT
Pat Neshek will have 0 saves. RIGHT
The Twins Closer of the future is not on the opening day roster (RIGHT sorda)
The Twins closer of the future in not on the Twins AAA team (RIGHT)
the Twins closer of the future is on the AA team. (Bullock is in AA now)
Brett Favre will announce he will not play for the Twins but return to the Vikings for 1 more year (Given and RIGHT)
Jim Thome will have at least 1 walk off home run this year (Matt Thorton wishes it was not true and I was RIGHT)
Fransisco Liriano will have an ERA under 4.00 and will make 30 starts (RIGTH)
Twins will make a hard run at Heath Bell with trying to use one of two packages
package 1 will include Ben Revere or (wrong but they discussed it)
package 2 will include Angel Morales (same goes but wrong)
Wilson Ramos will be called up in September and will make the playoff roster (called up before and traded)
Twins will have 3 starters pitch 200 innings (very wrong, with only Carl Pavano. I though Baker and Blackburn would do the same. Was not the case as they sucked)
Their will be 0 snow outs at Target Field until October (so far so good)
If Danny Valencia is called up, Alexi Casilla might be DFA (Not true)
Twins minor league player of the year will be Wilson Ramos (False this goes to Joe Benson)
Twins minor league pitcher of the year will be Kyle Gibson (TRUE)
Twins MVP will be Denard Span (so very wrong. This could go to many different guys like Delmon, Liriano or Mauer but I think it should go to Jim Thome)

Gardy for Manager of the Year!

2010-09-21T16:50:00.000-07:00

As fans we tend to over criticize. And for a group of people who feel passionately about one certain thing, they tend to start making rash opinions based on certain observations. As Twins fans its hard not to admit that our opinions constantly change about manager Ron Gardenhire. The man; whether we think so or not is pretty damn good at what he does and the 2010 season is a perfect example why.

I am only doing this because a couple weeks ago I asked the simple question to ESPN's Howard Bryant why he though Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington deserved the Manager of the Year award over Gardy. He literally laughed the question and now with 2 weeks left in the season he is the one looking more like a joke.

It is a legitimate question. What has Ron Washington done this year that Ron Gardenhire hasn't? Sure he has taken a team that has not been to the playoffs since 1996 but then again he is managing a superbly talented team (Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton, etc) in a division where every other team is below .500. So I ask again. What did Washington do? The answer is what he is supposed to do. He managed what was already a talented team from 2nd place in 2009 to 1st in 2010 while the other 3 teams in the division got progressively worse. The Angels lost a ton of talent from 2010 and were expected to fall, and the Mariners were a complete bust and are now the worst team in all of baseball and A's have not tried to win a division title since they had their big three together. Texas has mastered this division but has been sitting on the chance to seal up the division for the past 2 weeks and it has caused them to now put the season on cruise control.

What Ron Gardenhire has done is take a team just as talented in a more competitive division and dominated. The Twins have absolutely smothered the AL Central in route to an 11 game lead with less then 2 weeks left in the year. The Twins have played so well that they are within one game of the best record in all of baseball. This after the Twins were 3 back of Chicago at the All Star Break. After ending the first half of the season 46-42. Minnesota has bulldozed at a 44-18 pace to eclipse the 90 win mark.

What about injuries? Yes Washington has dealt with some blows this season. All Star 2nd baseman Ian Kinsler has been on and off the shelf and MVP candidate Josh Hamilton looks like he will be scratched for the remaining of the season with broken ribs to prepare for October. But is this worse then what Gardy has gone through? Lets see it all started in March remember? When one of the top 2 closers in baseball (Joe Nathan) had his season ended with Tommy John. Then came Joe Mauer's heel bruise that landed him on the DL. And oh fuckin yeah; first half MVP Justin Morneau has not played since before the All Star break with a concussion, not to mention he was having the best season of his career. Then came a slew of other injures that has not allowed this team to play a full healthy game together since what seems like May. Gardy has been able to work with what he has and when I say work with I mean guys like Jeff Manship, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla, Jason Repko, among others to come up in big spots for the team to win. And doing it with the 2nd best record in baseball.

What about head to head? The Twins went undefeated at home against Texas this year while racking up a 7-3 record overall against the eventual AL West champs. That has put Texas in a hole which will allow Minnesota to open the playoffs at home against what is most likley Wild Card; Tampa Bay, while Texas will have to travel to defending champion; New York.

So... you can tell me what Ron Washington has done well enough this year to be on conversation to win Manager of the Year, but really? What has he done that should put him ahead of Ron Gardenhire? The answer is nothing and if Gardy does not win this award in a landslide I will give up on writers because most of them obviously don't give a damn about baseball. They are too busy criticizing Brett Favre, LeBron James and Roger Clemens.

Prospect Round Up; Top 5

2010-09-09T16:05:00.000-07:00

5.) Ben Revere, 22, AA Eastern League, MLB:
As I predicted Ben Revere would be a September call up. But it did not come at a price for the 22 year old. Revere went through a number of injuries most notably broken facial bones when he was struck in the orbital by a 95 MPH fastball. Brings back memories to the end of Kirby Puckett's career. Revere did what he always does by hitting .305 and stealing 36 bases. Still remains to be seen what the Twins will do with the 2007 first round pick but it will be exciting to see what he will do in the Arizona Fall League against other top competition.

4.) Wilson Ramos, 23, AAA International League, MLB:
Wilson Ramos had an incredible streak while taking Joe Mauer's place racking up hits in bunches. But his stay in AAA Rochester was a gloomy one where he failed to produce. The Twins later as expected used Ramos to bring in an arm to help with their post season run. Initially the trade (for Matt Capps) seemed poor for the Twins but in my opinion this trade can not be judged until we see how the season ends. If Minnesota wins then the trade is a success. If not then we will have to wait and see what Wilson Ramos becomes. If he is what some scouts think and that is a plus defensive catcher with .300, 20+ home run hitting ability then yes it is bad for Minnesota. If he is just another solid big league guy then it will be looked at as an even swap. Ramos should put up good long term numbers in the National League but it remains to be seen if he will ever be an All Star.

3.) Miguel Sano, 17, Rookie Gulf Coast League;
I called Miguel Sano the most hyped player in the GCL since Miguel Cabrera. I believe in his talent so much that I would say that he may be a better long term player then 1st overall pick Bryce Harper. He showed glimpses of his raw and rare talent this year in the DSL and GCL hitting 7 home runs while batting .307 in just 61 games. Sano struck out at more then a 2 to 1 ratio but nothing too drastic especially for a 17 year old. I still believe in Sano as a future MVP and you have to love the goals he set out for himself. He wants to be in the Majors in 3 years. If you calculate that it will be sometime in 2012. We know the Twins won't let that happen but if Sano dominates the way I think he can, management will have no choice but to continue to promote him. Performance should be rewarded. Sano will perform.

2.) Kyle Gibson, 22, A+ Florida State League, AA Eastern League, AAA International League;
Say hello to what will be the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Gibson did exactly what I thought he was going to do and that was make it to AAA while baffling hitters. He ended this season hitting very good marks of 152 innings, 2.96 ERA, 11 wins, and got more then double ground outs to fly outs. Gibson drew comparisons from Carl Pavano all the way to Brandon Webb throughout the season. His low 90's sinker and knockout slider will be good enough for number 3 type starter stuff and long term he should be the Twins number 2 guy behind Fransisco Liriano. He will start 2011 in AAA Rochester but will not be there for long. To avoid super 2 status expect a June call up at the earliest.

1.) Aaron Hicks, 20, A Midwest League:
When you hit .279/.401/.428 and are said to have a disappointing season, you can understand why scouts love Aaron Hicks so much. Hicks spent the whole year in Beloit while watching he fellow OF mate Angel Morales get promoted. He still has the best set of pure tools in the system. Hicks got off to a horrific start by going 1 for 31 in April but hit .298 from there on out. We have still yet to see the best from Hicks and when it gets put together we are looking at a special outfielder. Guys like Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen are going to be guys who you can compare Hicks to. He will start 2011 in Fort Myers as a 21 year old and hopefully will start to turn some of those tools into performance this upcoming season. I have said it before and I will say it again. Unlike other outfielders in this system, Aaron Hicks is the only one who is NOT blocked and will have room made for.

Prospect Round Up 10-6

2010-09-04T06:31:00.000-07:00

10.) Adrian Salcedo, 19, A+ Florida State League, Rookie Appalachian League
It is obvious by the leagues he pitched in that Adrian Salcedo was slightly mishandled this year. But a mass of injuries in in all 4 of Minnesota's full season clubs forced the Twins to have to plug some guys into holes before they were ready. Salcedo did no fare well against FSL hitters but reports about his stuff were legit which was a low to mid 90's fastball that he could locate very well along with a spike curve ball and a solid change up. Salcedo when being sent back to rookie ball showed the same dominance he did last season with a 3.16 ERA as a starter and a ridiculous 55K to 6BB in 56 innings. Salcedo has been relieving to end the year to limit innings and should top out somewhere near 100 compared to the 61 he threw last year. Its obvious the Twins will take it slow with Salcedo so either he will start full season ball last next year or be shut down early. But expect a total inning count of around 130 in 2011 mixed between Beloit and if he performs Fort Myers as well. Salcedo might have the best raw stuff in the system as a teenager so you could understand why the Twins want to be careful.

9.) Angel Morales, 20, A Midwest League, A+ Flordia State League.
Another toolsy kid who started to put some things together this year. Morales his over .290 for Beloit which earned him a promotion to Fort Myers. On the season his power from the past has since disappeared now turning into more of a free swinging singles guy. Morales only tallied up 5 home runs and 24 doubles this year. But he did show some crazy speed with 10 triples and 29 steals which are both career highs. I like Morales' tools overall. As I said before he strikes out way too much and will be exposed in higher leagues. Twins let Morales play nearly 170 games in low A ball before a true call up so don't be surprised to see Morales return to the Miracle next season to start. He will most likley be reunited with Aaron Hicks.

8.) Carlos Gutierrez, 23, AA Eastern League, AAA International League.
We had some questions answered about the 2008 first round pick. His long term role will in fact be in the bullpen. Gutierrez simply does not have the secondary pitches or the stamina to go deep into games or a season. But that is not a bad thing. Because his stuff may be better suited for the pen anyway. We know he brings that bowling ball sinker clocked anywhere from 93 to 97 and now that he has limited innings to throw it it could be clocked more often then not to the top of that scale. Gutierrez was promoted to AAA Rochester because the MLB team is decimated by injuries, but Carlos should start next year in Rochester anyway. I need to see what Gutierrez can do as a full time bullpen arm before I make a projection of what he can do because at this moment I beleive Billy Bullock is the closer of the future just because of his ability to rack up strikeouts.

7.) David Bromberg, 22, AA Eastern League, AAA International League.
Bromberg may have took a step back from what he did in 2009 as the organizations best pitcher but that does not mean that he did not have a solid year. He is showing durability by cracking the 150 inning mark for the 3rd straight season and still has a season ERA of 3.75 (3.98 in AAA). What seemed to be the problem for Bromberg this year was the thing that I wanted him to improve on from last year and that was control. His strikeouts have dropped from 177 to 148 now to 112 since 2008 and his walks were up while he was in AA. He has seemed to harness that since the promotion to AAA but he is leaving more pitches of the plate. Bromberg has given up twice as many homeruns in Rochester as he did in New Britain but with half the innings. Bromberg still has potential to be a back of the rotation starter. But my Kevin Millwood suggestion may be quite off. I still might think because of his size and stuff he could resemble Tommy Hunter.

6.) Danny Valencia, 25, AAA International League, MLB.
It is safe to say the Danny Valencia has locked up the full time 3B job for the Twins. I was a little nervous when he was called up that he would not get much playing time but the kid has started the past 26 games and for lack of a better word has raked. Valencia's power does not translate well to Target Field but neither does Joe Mauer's. What we have seen is a patient hitter who stings the ball to all fields and is not afraid of Major League pitching (.343/.382/.454). He in my opinion has also played very good defense showing off that cannon arm (which Nick Punto does not have). Valencia has been up since June 2 and may be under consideration for AL Rookie of the Year surprisingly. When looking around the league the award might go to either him, Austin Jackson, Brendan Boesh, Wade Davis or my preseason pick Neftali Feliz.

Prospect Round Up 15-11

2010-09-02T17:03:00.000-07:00

15.) Billy Bullock, 22, A+ Florida State League, AA Eastern League
Kyle Gibson is obviously the crown jewel from the 2009 draft. But Billy Bullock (2nd round) might be a more dominant force for the Twins in the near future. Bullock has been able to use his mid to upper 90s fastball with a power slider to post up fantastic strikeouts rates (102K in 72 innings). For all of you keeping track that is almost 13K per 9 innings. He will begin next year in AAA Rochester and should be contending for a September call up in 2011.

14.) Tyler Robertson, 22, AA Eastern League
It has been a disappointing year from all of the pitchers in New Britain and Robertson headed the bunch with a 4-13 record and a 5.39 ERA. There is no getting around what the issue was. Since his arm injury a couple years ago the stuff has simply vanished. And since he has moved up into a tougher league, AA hitters will not fall for change ups, slow curves and a high 80's fastball. Robertson will probably return to AA next year and could be stuck for a long time if he does not decide to change up his mechanics.

13.) Rene Tosoni, 24, AA Eastern League
I was kind of puzzled when the Twins decided to keep Tosoni back. But in the long run it never really hurt because Tosoni was never going to get through the first couple months anyway. Tosoni's had season ending shoulder surgery that limited him to only DHing while playing. The surgery was the right move. But has I said before, Tosoni is a guy with limited tools in a system loaded with talented outfielders. And he is much older then the others. He may be a guy who disappears over time.

12.) Joe Benson, 22, A+ Florida State League, AA Eastern League.
Joe Benson's tools seemed to catch up with him finally. Benson has always been known as a big bodied, athletic specimen and he put together a lot of his tools this year. Minus the one that actually gets you to the big leagues. Benson set a career high with 23 home runs and counting on the season which lead the organization. The power is legit but the bat is behind again. He only hit .240 in AA ball while striking out more then once a game. The kid plays great defense at all 3 positions and has a cannon arm. His speed is good enough to steal 20 bags in a 162 game schedule. He has the major league set of tools but unless his bat can make consistent contact he will be another Carlos Gomez.

11.) Max Kepler, 17, Rookie Gulf Coast League
I am a huge Kepler fan. Although he is only 17 and has a ton to learn about the game and American society, Max Kepler has the look of a future All Star. He showed glimpses of it this year in the GCL .286/.346/.343. The numbers may indicate that the power is not there but it will come. Remember this kid is just 17 years old! And he stands a very thin 6 feet 4, 180 pounds. Let him grow into his body and we will be looking at a very exciting player.

Prospect Round Up

2010-08-28T10:06:00.000-07:00

I am going to break this down into 4 parts and go over my top 21 Twins prospects from 2010. Just a quick briefing this season was a little of a disappointment on some levels for some players. A lot of guys who we expected big things from this year regressed and the pitching as a whole went through a world of injuries. I still think the Twins have a solid system but not as high as I thought at beginning of season.

21.) BJ Hersmen, 20, Rookie Appalachian League, A Midwest League: I was not as high as other Twins bloggers on Hermsen, mainly because of his lack of stuff. Hermsen as reported features a high 80's fastball and not much for a plus breaking ball. I beleive there is a guy similar to this in the system and his name is Nick Blackburn. ERA hovering over 6 as we speak. After racking up over 100 innings after extended spring training this year, expect Hermsen to be ready for full season ball next year with the Beloit Snappers as a 21 year old.

20.) Matt Bashore, 22, did not play: Twins supplemental first round pick of 2009 had his season cut short before it even got a chance to start. It is unfortunate because I was pretty high on Bashore. He should be ready to pitch next year after Tommy John surgery. Expect Minnesota to take it slowly with him (see Matt Fox).

19.)Deolis Guerra, 21, AAA International League, AA Eastern League: The final piece remaining for the Johan Santana deal played with us this year. He got off to a terrific start for New Britain that earned him a promotion to Rochester during this first half. Seemed to be too much too soon for Guerra and he was sent back down to New Britain where he has been rocked ever since. His ERA has now climbed to over 6 in both leagues. Guerra simply just is not what the Twins thought he was. His velocity comes and goes and when I say goes it sometimes dips down into the 70's and his only real pitch is his change up. Guerra will return to New Britain next year but expect the Twins to have little patience with him.

18.) Chris Parmelee, 22, AA Eastern League, A+ Florida State League: Parmelee has had what I call an interesting year. I projected him to be the best power hitter in the system and to at least hit 20 home runs. Right now he is on 8 and slugging .407 between 2 leagues. However after a early season demotion his contact rate has shot up to where he is now hitting .287 on the year (career high). Parmelee was regarded as one of the best prep bats in his draft class but has come along extremely slowly. The power was there last year with out the contact rate. This year its the opposite. If he can piece them together next year in Rochester we might have a guy who can succeed Jason Kubel for the DH spot and who can play some occasional outfield and first base.

17.) Anthony Slama, 26, AAA International League, MLB: The 26 year old continued to do what he always does and that is rack up saves and strike guys who in the minors. He has made a couple stints with the big club but has showed iffy control thus far. Listen I know everybody loves Slama but people also need to understand what he really is. He tops out at 92 on the gun, and strikes guys out with deception not stuff. Long term Slama may be a nice middle end bullpen guy but not a big league closer. The Twins have as many as 5 guys on this current roster headed to free agency next year (Gurrier, Crain, Rauch, Fuentes, Mahay). I expect the majority to leave which will give Slama a chance to lock down a full time Major League job in spring training.

16.) Alex Burnett, 23, MLB, AAA International League: Only 3 guys since the Terry Ryan ERA have jumped from AA to the Majors and those guys were Brad Radke, Joe Mauer and Jose Mijares. Alex Burnett was able to add his name to that list and performed admirably, after a case of what I thought dead arm set in, Burnett's ERA dropped to 4.11 and has not been much better in Rochester. Long term though I really like this kid. He got more and more comfortable as the season went on and I think he can be a very valuable commodity. If I had a choice to move forward with Burnett or Matt Guerrier, I would take Alex in a second.

Twins In 1st But Can Still Do More

2010-08-17T14:44:00.000-07:00

Today is August 17th and the Minnesota Twins are a first place baseball team. I am not surprised at all, mainly because this is what happens when a bunch of teams play a bunch of games. Usually the one with the most talent ends up on the high side of things. Minnesota has a 3 game lead on Chicago going into a huge 3 game series with the White Sox. Both teams have their top 3 pitchers going so we are going to get a good idea of who is the better team. At this pace (68-50), the Twins are projected to finish with 93 wins. Right around the number I put them at for the beginning of the season.

What is also a key note is what Minnesota is trying to do here. All I have heard as of recent is now that the Twins have taken over first place, can they hold off the White Sox. That is not the right question. For the Twins to remain hungry the need to set a goal and put a target on another team's back. That team is the Texas Rangers. As of right now it is pretty obvious that the Wild Card will be coming out of the Al East and whether that team is New York or Tampa Bay should concern you. Minnesota and Texas are currently battling out for the number 2 seed on the playoffs, winner will get home field advantage against the Wild Card team in the ALDS. Just imagine games 1 and 2 in rocking Target Field rather then game 3 of what could be a game clincher.

As of right now the Twins hold a half game lead for that spot over Texas and the teams play a huge 4 game series in Arlington next week and another series first weekend of September that will take place in Target Field.

But, back to now Minnesota is trying to do big things now and that is bury the hatchet for the White Sox. If the Twins can take 1 game in this series they are still in pretty good shape with a 2 game lead. If they can take 2 games this week from Chicago they will be up 4 games and if they can really lay down the hammer with a sweep they will be up 6 games with 40 to go. Scott Baker will take the hill tonight against Chicago's ace Jon Danks. Fransisco Liriano will face off against Gavin Floyd on Wendesday and Carl Pavano will look for win number 16 against Mark Buehrle.

Twins Swap Ramos for Capps

2010-07-30T10:40:00.000-07:00

Late last night Rochester Red Wings catcher Wilson Ramos was a late scratch before the game. News and rumors quickly began to emerge that the 22 year old was part of a trade and that was exactly the case. The Twins were able to make a deal that sent Ramos and A+ pitcher Joe Testa to the Washington Nationals organization for 26 year old closer Matt Capps and cash. This was not the kind of return that I was hoping for at the beginning of the year. I was hoping that Ramos could center a deal that would bring more just a reliever, however because of his atrocious season he has lost a lot of his value that he had going into 2010.

A lot of you may question this deal and I am part of that bandwagon who is not too too excited about it, however you have to look at it for what it is. The Twins need a closer. It has been apparent that Jon Rauch is not a guy you should rely on in the playoffs if the Twins make it. His fastball is fringe average for a closer (90 to 93, usually sits in the 91, 92 range), his curve ball is plus and you can not deny that, his change up is a show me pitch and a pitch you can see has got hit hard a lot. Overall Rauch is a solid reliever in the 7th and sometimes 8th inning. Not a guy you can rely on in the 9th though. What you get in Capps is a guy who has closed for pretty much his entire career. He throws harder then any guy on the Twins roster other then Jesse Crain (Capps is usually 93-94 touching 95 with 2 seem movement) and a good change up. Like most Twins pitchers he does a good job limiting walks and throwing strikes.

They got a player they needed but most will complain that it was a high price tag. Wilson Ramos was rated at the number 2 prospect in the Twins system (I had him 4th). But what has he shown us this year? Although he is a very good fastball hitter he may be worse at hitting breaking balls then Pedro Cerano from the movie Major League. He also has shown that he likes to swing the bat (12 walks on season) and thus he has also put a lot of bad contact on balls in play. Ramos has picked it up in June and July getting the average up to .241 (shows you had bad he was to start year) but he has hit 5 home runs all year (rated top power hitter in system) and is is slugging under .350. Did the Twins sell low on Ramos? Maybe. But this is a guy who did not have a future on the Twins big league team. They are playing very well right now and need to sure some things up on the pitching staff and Capps was the best guy available to them. As we have seen with trading for closers in the past (George Sherrill for 3B prospect Josh Bell, Eric Gange for OF prospect Engel Beltre and others) teams have been willing to overpay to get a guy they need and Bill Smith followed that suit.

I wish Wilson Ramos the best in Washington and congratulate him for being on the same team as Stephen Strasburg. It will be nice not to have to get blown away by his stuff. Also want to welcome Mr. Capps to Minnesota and hope he does well down the stretch.

Final note. I hope the Twins are not done. The first place White Sox have been aggressive. They made a move to get Edwin Jackson (although this does not help them in my opinion) and are working hard to get Adam Dunn so the Twins need to plan accordingly. They still have a couple more trade chips left in my opinion (Ben Revere or Angel Morales) who could be used to haul in a starting pitcher. Only thing I hope is that they stay away from Ted Lilly and Aaron Cook.

Jack Zduriencik Can Drop Dead

2010-07-08T07:43:00.000-07:00

It is no secret what the situation is right now. The Seattle Mariners are a last place but have the best pitcher in the American League in the last year of his deal. Cliff Lee has made is quite clear that he is going into free agency and is looking to hit the bank. Although recent contract history has said that Cliff Lee might be looking at offers ranging from 5 years 80 to 90 million dollars, the 2008 Cy Young award winner is looking for Johan Santana and CC Sabathia type money.

The other part of this situation is the Minnesota Twins and the rest of Major League baseball. If you are within 5 games of a playoff spot it may be wise to make a run at the Seattle All Star. This is where it gets tricky. There are a lot of teams in competition right now. Most notably; Minnesota, Texas, New York Mets, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, New York Yankees among 3 or 4 others. Each one of these teams can create a hefty package to send to the Mariners. In fact if you have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein wrote a great article of every team in the hunt and what prospects could be up for grabs in a trade .

But it gets tricky after that. I have made it clear since spring training that I thought the Mariners were not going to be good and that the Twins should do whats necessary to acquire Lee. And if the current rumors are true they have done that. So far rumors have floated that Minnesota has made 3 separate offers over the course of the month all build around blocked catching prospect Wilson Ramos:

*Wilson Ramos, Brian Duenseng, Low Level Player to be Named
*Wilson Ramos, Aaron Hicks
*Wilson Ramos, Kevin Slowey

All three of these deals are quite hefty so there is no sense in bashing Bill Smith right now because he is doing his job. Jack Zduriencik is like Dr. Evin from Austin Powers. He has been frozen away for so many years that he thinks that 1 million dollars is enough money to take over the world. Just not going to happen Rumors have said that he is looking for deals bigger then the ones that the Twins have already offered which is just ridiculous.

If that is the case teams like the Reds and Rays who build their teams around their farm will quickly back out of the running. The Yankees would be willing to overpay but they would much rather go after an outfielder. The Phillies will absolutely not part with Dominic Brown so they will be out. The Tigers and White Sox who now lead the division would still be interested, but I am not sure if their farm systems are loaded enough to spawn a deal that Seattle is looking for. That leaves 3 teams. The Mets, Twins and Rangers.

The Mets desperately need pitching help and have the money to resign Lee once the season is over. But they have grown quite attached with their 20 year old phenom Jenry Mejia. Wilmer Flores would also be a great piece to start something with, but at the rate Jack Zduriencik is going he will want both of them. Tough to see that happening. Texas has a loaded farm system (pre ranked number 1 by Baseball America). And they know they will not keep Lee after the season so they already know what the risk is. They have big prospects and players such as Tanner Scheppers, Martin Perez, Derek Holland, Blake Beavan, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Texas desperately wants Lee but how would they feel giving up the farm with in the division. May be weird to see if Seattle has a good team in 2 years built around a rotation that includes Martin Perez who is regarded as the next Johan Santana. Or a lineup with Justin Smoak who is compared to Justin Morneau and Mark Teixera.

I still think the Twins are the front runner. They have reportedly already made offers which other teams have not rumored to do. Bill Smith and Terry Ryan have had histories playing pickle to the last second and still getting things done so I am still confident that it will at a reasonable price. Like this article is titled, if Jack Zduriencik thinks he is going to get 2 top prospects or more for a 2 month rental he can lack for a better word "drop dead". All in all its not worth it to to trade future stars for a rental, not matter how good that rental is. The price for Cliff Lee is much higher then I anticipated at the beginning of the season all the way up until now. As every day goes by in theory the price should go down because a trade partner will be getting less and less days in the season with Lee on their roster. So lets see how how it plays out. There is roughly 3 weeks left until the deadline.

The Twins are sadly a 3rd place team because they are doing a great job playing down to their competition. A spark of Cliff Lee may rejuvenation the team to make a playoff run similar to what the Brewers did with CC Sabathia 2 years ago.

Quick Evaluation of 2010 Draft

2010-06-09T12:01:00.000-07:00

It may be tough for the Twins to live up to what they did in the 2009 draft. Among their first 4 picks they took at least 2 guys who are going to be major contributors to the Major League team within the next 1 to 2 years. Obviously Kyle Gibson has established himself quickly as the best pitching prospect in the system and 2nd rounder Billy Bullock is also quickly building up a resume as a future power reliever. Although 3rd rounder Ben Tootle and supplemental pick Matt Bashore have had their seasons cut short due to elbow injuries, I am still high on these two guys.

As for 2010, we all know the Twins had 0 compensation picks. I am going to not go too crazy about some of the picks the Twins made. But their are some points where I feel they could have made a better selection.

1st Rd, 21st Selection; RHP, Alex Wimmers, Ohio State: Wimmers was at the top of the Twins draft board and it seems like they were happy that the Co Big 10 pitcher of the year fell to them. Like most Minnesota prospects they usually get the comparison to Brad Radke. To be honest I think Wimmers draws the biggest comparison. He has a some what wild delivery, but still only runs his velocity to 89 to 92 MPH, but he has 2 off speed pitches; a curve and a change up that are both above average and close to plus pitches. Rumors said that Wimmers can be a quick sign and a fast riser to the majors. If that is the case then great. It would be nice to see him either sent to the Appalachian League or Midwest league to get is pro career kicked off.

Who They Might Have Missed: Zack Cox was a projected top 10 pick. Cox (3B or 2B) was there for the Twins at pick 21. His bat will hit for average and decent power. Has a cannon arm but overall defense may not be good for hot corner.

2nd Rd, 71st selection; Cartier "Niko" Goodrum, SS, Fayette County High School, Fayetteville, GA: High risk high reward is an under statement for Goodrum. It should be super high risk, high reward. Goodrum has some super tools. Plus speed, very good defensively, and bat has some raw, raw power. Goodrum is not a great, maybe not even a good hitter. He has trouble making contact which will be a process in his development. He has played most of his high school career as a shortstop. Minnesota drafted him as a shortstop. But all sings are pointing to center field which just confuses me why the Twins would even bother. But hey. This is the Twins strategy. Take the toolsy kid and develop him. Its brought out guys like Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter and Denard Span. And the last time we doubted a Twins pick it turned into Ben Revere.

Rd 3, 102n selection: Pat Dean, LHP, Boston College: Dean was a solid lefty in a very good ACC conference. Dean has similar size and stuff to guys like Brian Duenseng and Glen Perkins. Dean may has seemed like a safe pick at the time following up the high risk pick of Goodrum and that may be true. His fastball is 89 to 90 with a sweeping slider in low 80s and slow curve ball 73 to 75 MPH.

Guys who were still on the board at 71 and 102:

AJ Cole, RHP Oviedo High School, Florida: Some scouts had AJ Cole as one of the top 2 or 3 high school arms behind number 2 overall pick Jameson Taillon. Cole is very projectable at 6 feet 4 with a low 90s fastball and wipe out curve ball. Cole fell to the Nationals at pick 116 but their are high odds he will not sign because of the record setting contract Bryce Harper will get from Washington.

James Paxton, LHP, No School: Paxton was a supplemental first rounder out of Kentucky did not sign with the Blue Jays in '09. He was also not invited back to college. He had to take some time off and has pitched some in the independent league but not enough for talent observers to be fully convinced he was the same guy in 2009. The one who was able to throw mid 90s from the left side. Paxton fell to Seattle at pick 132. Their will be extra time for him to sign because he is not coming out of college or high school.

If there is one guy who is expected not to sign it is DeAndre Smelter. A very raw high school pitcher from Macon, George and is committed to Georgia Tech. His mechanics need a lot of work but he features a 95 MPH fastball as well as a slider and a change up. Again, Smelter fell the the 14th round so unless the Twins are willing to pay way above slot, there is little chance we will be seeing Smelter in the Twins system.

Minnesota Twins Draft Options Part 2

2010-06-04T17:02:00.000-07:00

In part 2 of this I thought I would touch on some of the dos and don'ts in Monday's draft. As everyone knows the Twins only have one pick (21st overall) on day one and in the top 70 picks. This puts more pressure on Bill Smith and the talent evaluators to get this pick right. It is important that Minnesota does not pay attention to the helium balloons on certain prospects as well as needs and make sure they get the best player available. Also in my opinion I think the Twins should try to ignore the signability of the high prices guys. The Twins have tended to stick by their guy with slot money, mainly because they usually have multiple picks in the first couple rounds and they need to allocate their money up for each of them. They do not have this problem with the one pick. In addition to that the Twins have spent more money now due to the addition to Target Field so the approaching $100 million dollar pay roll should be an indacation that more money can be spent through talent development. Case in point the roughly $5 million dollars given to Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco.

Players To Be High On:

*Dylan Covey RHP, Maranatha HS, Pasadena, Calif.: High school arms are not usually in the Twins mold but but very few fit the Twins strategy as much as Covey at the top of the board. Its rare to see an 18 year old who already has a good feel for pitching. At 6'2", 200 pounds Covey does not have much more projection in terms of size but he already has a 3 pitch mix that makes him the most polished of the high school arms and some of the college guys. I have seen some drafts where Covey falls and others where he goes as high as 9th. Either way this is a guy the Twins should keep an eye on because he has Tim Hudson potential.

*Brandon Workman RHP, Texas: Workman is a perfect name for a bull dog pitcher. He brings a low to mid 90s fastball with a lot of late life as well as a good curve ball. Workman is 6'5" and has number 2 starter potential. Most drafts have him going at the end of round one and sources have said that Workman is a candidate to be selected by Minnesota.

Guys I Am On the Border With:

*Alex Wimmers RHP Ohio State: Wimmers has been on the Twins draft minds all season. He pitches in the Big 10, has great control and has potential to be the next Mike Leake as some scouts have said. But I have also read conflicting reports about Wimmers, mainly the one about his velocity. Some have him as a guy in the low to mid 90s, other have him as a guy who sits 88 to 92 and that will drop as he gets to an every 5th day schedule. All I am saying is Wimmers may be a guy who might now transition well the the pro game.

Just Does Not Make Sense:

*Mike Kvasnicka, OF/C, Minnesota: I am sure why people like the idea of this pick. Taking the local kid who has some very good potential and the switch hitting ability. But if Kvasnicka was not from Minnesota would you really be this high on him. He is on helium watch right now because and is soaring up draft boards. Mainly because if his future ability to catch. But the Twins do not need a catcher or an outfielder and if they were interested in one they are better off taking one out of high school so they do not have to be pressured in development. If the Twins take Kvasnicka they will go through a process that could take 3 to 4 years by which he could be 25 years old before being Major League ready.

*Kolbrin Vitek, 2B, Ball State: I was a fan of Vitek a couple weeks ago, but now I am backing off. Mainly because it sounds like he will not be able to stay at 2B. He has a very good bat, but hits for average with little power and the move for him immanently seems to be to center field. The Twins have a 1st rounder with that mold that they took in 2007 who is doing quit well.

Minnesota Twins Draft Options

2010-05-25T05:44:00.000-07:00

The draft may be the greatest thing about sports. The NFL and NBA have pretty much made national holidays out of their draft days. Over the past couple years Bud Selig and Major League Baseball have made steps to bring the MLB draft from a radio podcast to television event. In further expansion of the game, fans get an opportunity to see the players their team selects and what that player might turn into in the future.

This is great for Twins fans because they are a team known for their drafting skills. If you look at the current 25 man roster for Minnesota, 11 of them were drafted by the Twins. Notable MVP's Joe Mauer (1 overall) and Justin Morneau (3rd round), former first round picks Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span, starting pitchers Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker, and lets not forget Jason Kubel. Baseball America said the Twins had one of the top 3 draft classes in 2009 by addressing the depth of the pitching. They selected Kyle Gibson at 22 who looks like he is going to be a steal. Second rounder Billy Bullock has some of the best stuff in the system and had makeup the be the Twins future closer.

It is pretty obvious that 17 year old Bryce Harper is going to go number 1 overall. He seems like the greatest hitting prospect after. This coming after Stephen Strasburg was the greatest pitching prospect ever. Good for Washington. The Twins only have 1 pick in the first round in 2010 and 2 picks in the first 71 selections. Their have been a few players that have jumped out to me and I will evaluate some of the other talent that could be available for when Minnesota is on the clock.

*RHP Anthony Ranaudo, LSU, 6 feet 7 231 pounds
As a Sophomore last season Ranaudo was looked at as possibly the best college arm going into the 2010 draft. But stress injury in his elbow cut his season short and some red flags to go up. The injury is different to Kyle Gibson's but reports have said that it is not going to effect him long term. Ranaudo is very big with 3 above average pitches (90-93 MPH fastball, spike curve ball and changeup.) I don't think he has the upside Gibson did and it is also a negative that Scott Boras will be his agent.

*RHP Dylan Covey, Maranatha High School (CA), 6 feet 2 200 pounds
The Twins have not had great luck with their high school pitchers in early rounds however if their is a group where they do like to pick talent out of it is California. Prime examples are Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson. Covey has above average control for a kid his age and already provides the potential for 2 plus pitches (90-93 MPH fastball with great movement and a spike curve ball). Minnesota usually does not like to go with the high school pitchers because of their price tags however because the Twins only have 1 first round pick they might be able to allocate their funds to this pick.

*2B Kolbrin Vitek, Ball State, 6 feet 3 195 pounds
In a draft deep with infielders Vitek might be one on the Twins Radar. Vitek projects as a plus hitter with developing power and has solid enough base running ability to get double digit steals. Although Vitek plays second base right now, it may not be his home for long. Some scouts like him for the outfield others for 3rd base. Either way his bat will be good enough at any level is his at.

*SS Christin Colon, Cal State Fullerton, 6 feet 185 pounds
Colon is a guy who does not bring one specific tool to the game, rather is such a smooth and efficient player, that he is not a weakness either. Colon is a plus defender with soft hands a solid arm. He has a very relaxed swing and solid plate discipline. Colon began to rise up draft boards after a terrific showing for Team USA last summer when he hit .362 with 5 home runs and 37 RBI in just 23 games.

*LHP James Paxton, Kentucky, 6 feet 4 215 pounds
Paxton is a supreme talent but definitely comes with some baggage. He was the number 37 pick in 2009 by the Blue Jays but did not sign. When he tried to return to school for his senior season he was denied by Kentucky. A law suit to the NCAA lead to a $750,000 settlement for damages received by not being able to pitch his senior year. If you look past this Paxton is a power lefty with plus stuff. He features a 92 to 98 MPH fastball that sits in the 95 range. A plus plus slider and the feel for a changeup. Paxton struck out 13.2 batters per 9 innings his Junior year at Kentucky. Other then Fransisco Liriano, the Twins do not have a left handed starter in their system that you can say jumps out at you. If Paxton is still on the board at pick 21 it would be a shame for the Twins to pass.

Although the Twins took 4 pitchers with their first 4 selections last year, I expect them to continue that trend. Although I think they got a future front line guy in Gibson, they are still lacking premium arms in their system. This is evident with the struggles of David Bromberg, Carlos Gutierrez and Tyler Robertson in AA New Britain. The Twins do have some high upside guys in the lower levels such as Adrian Salcedo, but in my opinion you can never have too much pitching.

MLB First Year Player Draft
Round 1 begins on June 7th and draft continues through June 9th.

Twins Trade Options?

2010-05-24T08:53:00.001-07:00

FOX Sports just came out with a list of 10 players that need to be traded. Considering that the Twins have a very deep team and deep farm system I was very interested to see if it was possible for Minnesota to make a run at any of these guys.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/lists/10-MLB-players-who-deserve-to-be-dealt-to-another-team#sport=MLB&photo=11226379

Guys of a 0% chance of trade

Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers, age 25
Brewers are going to do everything to keep Prince. He wants more money then Joe Mauer and Mark Texiera got. Twins don't have a place for him anyway with Morneau and Kubel. But it would be really cool to go into a game with Mauer, Morneau and Fielder hitting 3,4,5 to scare the hell out of New York pitching. But again, NO CHANCE.

Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals, age 26
I am going to shoot this down right away. Not for the Twins. They would love to get Soria. But their is no way the Royals would trade this guy in the division. The Royals still believe they will be competitive with in 2 years. Especially with prospects like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Motgomrey a year or less away.

Heath Bell, San Diego Padres, Age 32
At the beginning of the year I was all about Health Bell. However I did not expect the Padres to play this well. And their pitching is good enough to keep it up all year which means Bell or even Adrian Gonzalez are not going anywhere.

Kevin Millwood, Baltimore Oriels, Age 35
Twins have an over the hill guy going for one last run in Carl Pavano. Millwood is a nice player but is not the type of guy the Twins need to get over the top.

Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox, Age 36
Lowell has no place on Boston anymore. He still has the bat but the range is pretty much gone at 3rd base. The Twins really need some defense to come out of that 3rd base hole and Lowell can not provide it.

Small chance but will never work.

Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros, age 32.
Oswalt recently said that he wanted out of Houston. For a guy who has been the ace of a mediocre team for the past 10 years and has only been to the post season twice, I can understand his frustration. Just to be quick, I do not think it work out for the Twins. The 2 biggest trade chips the Twins would move would not work in Houston. Wilson Ramos is a great prospect but the Astros have Jason Castro close and ready. Twins could use Ben Revere but Astros already have Michael Bourn, a speedy gold glove outfielder. To be honest I am not too high on Oswalt anyway. He is having a great year this season but before that has regressed every season since 2006. I also do not think he will cut it in the AL. See "Sheets, Ben". Finally, money. Twins are pushing their budget to record highs and Oswalt has over $30 million dollars left on his deal through 2012. If and that is a big if a deal were to be worked out it would work one of two ways. Twins take a large portion of the remaining contract and give less prospects. Or Astros pay a lot of the money left on the deal and Twins dish out higher echelon prospects.

Chances of a Trade for Roy Oswalt: Less then 5%

Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks, age 29
Dan Haren would be a dream for the Twins. He has had success in the AL with the A's in the past. Arizona has said on a number of occasions that Haren is not for sale. But after a second consecutive season of disappointment in Arizona, the DBacks may want to consider what they can get for the still 29 year old. He is still under contract through 2012 at a little over $11 million per season. What would the Twins have to give up. Because Arizona would be trading their ace, they would probably want a pitcher in return. First name that comes to mind is Kyle Gibson. This I would say no to. Gibson has potential to be Haren and for 6 years at rookie and arbitration money. Other names out there are Wilson Ramos, Carlos Gutierrez, and Adrian Salcedo.

Chance of a Trade for Haren: Less then 10%
Best Deal for Twins: Wilson Ramos, David Bromberg, Adrian Sacledo
Best Deal for DBacks: Kyle Gibson, Adrian Salcedo, Anthony Slama

These packages sound like a lot but remember Haren is a proven ace pitcher and Arizona does not want to get rid of their guy. They can ask for whatever they want. A guy like this requires 3 top 10 guys in return.

Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners, age 31
Cliff Lee is in the final year of his deal and will in fact enter free agency. A guy who won the Cy Young in 2008 and then took a team within 2 wins of a World Championship in 2009 will get big money. Lee could get something in the range of 5 years at $90+ million, better then AJ Burnett, John Lackey and Josh Beckett. Twins could go after Lee now and RENT him for 2010 season. It would only take one top player. Similar trade to this would be what Oakland and St. Louis did last year with Matt Holliday for top prospect Brett Wallace. Mariners need a catcher and a power bat. Wilson Ramos provides both of those things. Cliff Lee would leave in free agency but would get 2 first round picks in return after Lee scores big in free agency.

Possibility of Trade : Now Less then 20% but that can grow as season goes along.
Best Trade Scenario: Wilson Ramos straight for Cliff Lee

Reaching for the Stars:
David Wright, New York Mets, age 27
This was the biggest fish in the list I saw for Fox Sports. With good 3B hard to come by Wright might be one of the 4 best in all of baseball. He is definitely on a down year and his numbers have shot down since the move to Citi Field. I still think the Mets would be crazy to trade Wright but the return they could get for him would but huge. In 2006 Wright signed a 6 year $55 million dollar deal that will be up in 2013. This is the face of the franchise. The Mets fan base would never forgive Omar Minaya for doing this and the odds of it happening are minuscule. What the Twins would have to give up would be huge. Mets need pitching and outfield help. They also have a 3B they could move to take Wright's spot until super prosepct Wilmer Flores is ready 2 or 3 years down the road.

Possibilty of trade: Less the 1%

Trade scenarios:
Package 1: Aaron Hicks, David Bromberg, Wilson Ramos, Danny Valencia
Package 2: Kyle Gibson, Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos, Danny Valencia

NBA Draft Lottery: Is it Corrupt?

2010-05-18T12:30:00.000-07:00

In the spirit of drafting I will do a quick breakdown and prediction of how tonight might go. Although we are in the conference finals for the NBA, tonight is the biggest night of the off season for the 14 teams that did not make the playoffs. If you have not had the opportunity to play the Draft Lottery Machine on ESPN.com I suggest you do. It is the closest thing to online drugs you can get as a sports fan.

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2010/mockdraft

After clicking the "Play Lottery" button about 500 times over the past month or 2 I have come to the conclusion this is how the lottery will shake out in reverse order.

No Shot in Hell: Even the lottery machine gives no respect to the teams that have less then a 1% chance. Which does not go well for these 4 teams and it shouldn't. They are on the cusp of making the playoffs and do not deserve the likes of a John Wall or Evan Turner. We have seen crazy things happen but the two teams with the best record to win the weighted lottery systems were the Orlando Magic (1.52%) in 1993 and the Chicago Bulls (1.70%) in 2008. Orlando took Chris Webber but later traded for my favorite player as a child Penny Hardaway and the Bulls recently took Derick Rose.

14. Houston Rockets 0.5%
13. Toronto Raptors 0.6%
12. Memphis Grizzlies 0.7%
11. New Orleans Hornets 0.8%

In Purgatory: Like I said before, only 2 teams have won the lottery less then a 2% chance but there have been 4 teams to win the weighted lottery with less then a 6% chance. Those teams in addition to the 2 listed above are the 2000 New Jersey Nets (4.4%) and the 2007 Portland Trail Blazers (5.3%). Both of these teams were really competitive after their top picks, the Nets even making it to the NBA Finals however the case can be drawn that it was not due to their potential super stars they thought they were getting (Kenyon Martin and Greg Oden). In 2010 I do not see any team jumping from this percentage.

10. Indiana Pacers 1.1%
09. Utah Jazz 2.2% From the New York Knicks unprotected because Isiah Thomas sucks.
08. Los Angeles Clippers 2.3%

Luck Is On Your Side: Any one of the next 7 teams have at least a 5% shot which in my opinion is pretty good odds. Especially when you see that 4 of the past 5 winners of the lottery had less then a 9% chance and 3 of those were under 7%. I can easily see one of the three larger market cities, Philadelphia, Washington D.C. or Detroit jumping into that top spot. Which is why the first scare team jumps up into the top 3 is coming from this group. (Wizards)

07. Detroit Pistons 5.2%
06. Philadelphia 76ers 5.3%

Big Markets Have Power: Ever since the Knicks got the top pick and Patrick Ewing their has been a lot of belief that their is some type of corruption involved in the Draft Lottery. However we have seen the Bucks, Warriors and Cavs all win the chance to pick 1. Minnesota has never won a lottery but they have never really had a great opportunity to win one either. I am now going by what I think may happen if the league was in fact rigged. Would I want to give another superstar to a team that had the 2 best rookies from last year (Warriors with Curry, Kings with Evans)? Not intriguing markets so probably not.

05. Golden State Warriors 10.4%
04. Sacramento Kings 15.6%

Top 3: This is the promise land but the hardest part to win. What we have seen in the past is not only can a team jump into the top 3 from no where, but they somehow win the whole damn thing which is screwy. Right now we have the Wizards, Nets and Timberwovles all still left. Minnesota being the only one to not win the lottery. Again I go back to the hint of corruption; if it was who do you think the NBA would favor. Washington is appealing and has won a lottery in the past but the Nets are moving to Brooklyn and have a ton of cap room, enough to land 2 max players. The NBA could form a champion over night and move them to Brooklyn. Just think of Brook Lopez, Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Devin Harris and John Wall. With Jay Z for marketability as part owner with Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov spending money left and right to build a state of the art arena in Brooklyn and the cash to lure a head coach like John Calipari, Phil Jackson or even Mike Krzyzewski at $15 million dollars per year. Very intriguing.

The Timberwolves have never won a lottery. Are they due? Or does the curse continue for what I thought was the worst franchise in the NBA in 2009. Does the David Stern trust David Khan to know what to do with the pick if he got it. After all this is a guy who took 3 point guards with his first 3 picks last year. One of which (Ricky Rubio) may not come to America at all. So here you go with the top 3 picks. And if you are wondering I have no idea who Minnesota would take at 3. I like Derrick Favors but they would have to trade Al Jefferson somehow.

03. Minnesota Timberwolves 19.9%
02. Washington Wizards 10.3%
01. New Jersey Nets 25%

Quick Evaluation of 2009 Draft

2010-05-17T11:47:00.000-07:00

2010 draft is coming June 7th. That is three weeks away. Just wanted to look back on what the Twins accomplished in the first round of the 2009 draft. Minnesota picked 22 and 31 and took two college pitchers. One was Kyle Gibson who has not disappointed and the other was Matt Bashore who is still recovering from an arm injury. Going into the draft it was pretty safe to assume the Twins were going to address their pitching. They also had a history of taking the more polished college arm to the upside and projection of a high school kid. Here I am evaluating some of the college pitchers that went in that first round in 2009 and how they are doing so far this year. Remember Gibson was as high as 4 on some mock drafts but his stress fracture in the arm caused him to fall to 22. You will see its a steal.

1) Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg; Strasburg was indeed a can't miss prospect. I do not need to say much more about the phenom. He is dominating the minor leagues and in 7 starts scattered around AA and AAA he has a 1.06 ERA and 40K in 34 innings. His other numbers are just unreal. He could have started opening day this year and dominated the majors. But Washington is being cost efficient with Strasburg and not letting him be a super 2. This is no joke, Strasburg is my pick for 2011 Cy Young. He reminds me of Twins pitcher with plus control of all sides of the plate and with all of his pitches. Except he throws the ball 97 to 100 MPH. Wow.

7) Atlanta Braves: Mike Minor; Tall lefty from Vanderbilt did not have the stuff of former number 1 pick David Price but has held his own. Atlanta started him in AA and he has had incredible strikeout numbers (65K in 44 innings). He has some control issues to work out but he is already looking like the left handed front line starter that will go next to Tommy Hanson for the future.

8) Cincinnati Reds: Mike Leake; The Reds acquired some great young pitching in 2009 in addition to Leake, the Reds go Cuban ace Aroldis Chapman. I was amazed that the Reds let Leake skip the minors all together but then I thought, wait its Dusty Baker he loves to run young pitchers into the ground. However Leake has looked great. He has been the best Reds starter as a 22 year old has a 4-0 record and a 3.09 ERA. He has not dazzled but has kept the now first place Reds in position to win games where he starts.

10) Washington Nationals: Drew Storen; Nationals had 2 picks in top 10 after not signings Aaron Crow in '08. Storen was seen as the best reliever in the draft and he has been fast tracked to the Majors, expected to be in Washington this week. Storen signed quick in 2009 and had a 1.95 ERA at 3 levels last year. In AA and AAA Storen has a combined 1.08 ERA in 2009. Safe to say he is ready and will contribute to a very improving Nationals team.

12) Kansas City Royals: Aaron Crow; At the beginning of the year I said the 23 year old Crow would be put on a fast track. So far Crow has disappointed me and the Royals. His ERA is 4.75 and in 47 innings has only 25K and 20 walks. At this point Crow looks like he will spend all of 2010 in AA and maybe he should have began the year in A ball.

15) Cleveland Indian: Alex White; Scouts were undecided whether White would start or close at the professional level. The Indians decided to begin this season with White in the rotation. In A+ ball Alex White 3.08 ERA in 38 innings with 35K and .212 BAA.

18) Toronto Blue Jays: Chad Jenkins; Jenkins may have been a guy who was on the Twins board. Reason why I say this is because he throws strikes and trusts his defense. The big right hander is showing very good control in the Midwest league only walking 8 in 42.2 innings. With ERA of 3.59, Jenkins may get the move to A+ ball pretty soon. I think Toronto has done great since trading Roy Halladay to address their pitching. Jenkins is sure to be part of a young deep pitching staff for years to come.

22) Minnesota Twins: Kyle Gibson; Gibson has flat out baffled hitters so far. He leads this group with 50 innings pitched in mid May already which is incredible. After dominating the FSL with 1.87 ERA and a 3 to 1 GB rate, Gibson went 7.1 shutout innings in his AA debut and struck out a career high 10. Twins tend to move their young players along slowly but if Gibson continues to pitch like this they will have no choice but to keep moving him along.

23) Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Arnett; Arnett has struggled the most of any college pitcher from this class. In low A ball his ERA is over 8 and 5 homeruns given up in just 29 innings. Arnett was a late riser on draft boards because of his size (6 feet 5, 230 pounds) and projectable stuff revolving around a mid 90s fastball. Again it is early but so far not good for Arnett and the Brewers.

Happy Delmon Young Day!

2010-05-12T07:45:00.000-07:00

I am going to be really quick with my speech about Delmon. I have always been a Delmon fan since he was drafted number 1 overall by the Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays. Since the trade was made to send him to Minnesota as part of a 6 player deal that included Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, their have not been much positives to come from Young who has hit only 25 home runs in 287 games played with the Twins.

I am still optimistic mainly because of what Delmon has shown in the past and what he projects out to be. This off season Delmon dedicated himself to become a better player and a better teammate. He lost 29 pounds to get himself down to 210, the lightest weight he has been since he made his MLB debut at age 20. That already has helped his run some balls down in left field that he would of had no chance on in the past. Their have been reports from the clubhouse that he is a much better teammate and in the short time since the season begun he has played pretty well believe it or not. Because of Delmon's limited number of at bats his statistics fluctuate quite often, which you could say is a bit of Ron Gardenhire's fault. For some reason he has become infatuated with 40 year old Jim Thome and putting a slower less productive Jason Kubel out in left field.

Player A: .267/.320/.444, 3 homeruns, 14 RBI, 10K/8BB, in 90 at bats
Player B: .276/.320/.448, 5 homeruns, 23 RBI, 17K/10BB, in 134 at bats

Very similar numbers by 2 players except one of them is getting hosed in his playing time. Player A is Delmon Young and Player B is Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer has not had a day off but Ron Gardenhire needs to realize that he needs to start distributing the wealth because he is going to waste Delmon's talent and also run a 31 year old Cuddyer into the ground for when September is here.

Twins are going up a very hot Jon Danks today who has an ERA of 1.98 this year. Young is a career .263 hitter off Danks but its better then Thome's 0 career at bats off his former teammate. I am going on record saying if Delmon Young does not start today this holiday will officially go down as a bust.

Is Their A Wild Card in the 3rd Base Battle?

2010-05-08T15:08:00.000-07:00

When the Opening Day Rosters were announced, their were not many surprises. Although Twins fans wanted to open the season without Nick Punto, there he was starting at 3rd base once again. We all know Punto is not the long term option and neither is Brendan Harris. They are glorified platoon players who should be bench guys. Sometime in 2010 a transition should be made to calling up a guy from AAA. But it may not be the guy you think who gets called up.

The idea or plan of how this season would play out would be sometime in June or July, 3rd base prospect Danny Valencia would finally get his opportunity to make his Major League Debut. Valencia known as the former 19th round pick out of U of Miami who has outplayed in draft status into the realm of prospect. So far in 2010 Valencia has not done enough to say that he was Major League ready. Valencia has been hitting pretty well in the past week to 10 days to get his average up to .274/.311/.354. Valencia has shown average to above average power in previous seasons but has yet to hit a home run this year and has a very poor OPS of .665. Also his plate recognition that he has had in the past has disappeared with 17K/6BB ratio.

What about Trevor Plouffe? Remember Trevor? He was a the first of 4 first round draft picks the Twins had in 2004 that all have not met expectations. 27 year old Glen Perkins has been sent back to AAA and is on the verge of being released. 23 year old Kyle Waldrop has been trying to rebound from shoulder injuries but is a decent bullpen option in AAA and 23 year old Jay Rainville has retired from baseball from a career ending shoulder injury that was never able to fully heal. Twins invested a total of $4.17 million dollars in these 4 guys and have clearly not gotten their moneys worth.

Trevor Plouffe went 20th overall in 2004. He is now starting his 5th year in the minors, second in AAA Rochester. Although Plouffe is a full time shortstop, his game can translate into the Twins future plans. In fact Plouffe's ability to play 2 maybe even 3 positions makes him a bit more valuable as a long term option in Minnesota. Plouffe has played 13% of his pro career somewhere other then shortstop. Plouffe has never been able to put it together in pro ball in the past. Closest he came was 2007 in New Britain when he hit .274 with 9 homeruns, 50 RBI and 12 steals in 126 games. His respectable season had him rated at the 10th best prospect in the Twins system and the shortstop of the future. In 2010 Plouffe has for lack of a better word played great. He is hitting .301/.371/.485. In 26 games Plouffe has hit 2 homeruns, 3 triples, 12 RBI, and scored 21 times.

So we always compare why Harris or Punto should play. But lets break down Danny Valencia vs Trevor Plouffe. Investment wise, the Twins have a lot more money put into Plouffe verus Valencia. Remember Plouffe got a $1.5 million dollar bonus being a first round pick when Valencia being the 576th player off the board has not really put a dent in the Twins checkbook. Age, Valencia has never had his age on his side in terms of prospect projection. Drafted late out of college, Valencia is 25 years old and will turn 26 in September. Plouffe is 23, turning 24 in June. Versatility also goes to Plouffe. He may not be a true 3rd baseman but we have seen in the past that solid shortstops have been able to translate well to playing 3rd base. They are both on the 40 man roster, so that is a wash.

It will be interesting if Trevor Plouffe might be able to play his way into Minnesota. He has momentum on his side. This may be something that the Twins will start to pay attention to as the season goes on. If Punto and Harris continue to struggle to a point where it effects wins and losses Bill Smith and Ron Gardenhire should make a move. I did not have Plouffe on my Twins prospect radar this season because of his lack of production. But because he is on the 40 man roster in Rochester, all it takes is a strong performance (like the one he is having now) to try and earn his way into the Majors. Denard Span did it 2 years ago. Plouffe's situation is a little different as he is not a true 3rd baseman, but he has experience playing 3rd base and I think would have a smooth transition process.

The Wilson Ramos Debate Needs to END!

2010-05-04T07:11:00.000-07:00

On Saturday night vs the Cleveland Indians, Joe Mauer jammed the heal of his foot on first base trying to run out a ground ball. A day later it was discovered that Mauer's injury although not significant, was still very painful and he was expected to miss the next few games and possibly be listed on a "week to week" basis. This left manager Ron Gardenhire with a decision. Start Drew Butera or call up catching prospect Wilson Ramos. Gardenhire called up Ramos and in the past 2 games Ramos has 7 hits in his first 9 at bats. Ramos is the first ever player since 1942 (Nanny Fernandez) to has 7 hits in his first 2 Major League games. When watching the 22 year old, I have to admit I am very impressed by his talent. He has a very advanced bat, calls a good game behind the plate, has a strong arm, and is a tough kid.

That being said, Ramos' success has lead to the repeat of the spring training argument that Ramos should remain with the team when Mauer is back and healthy to be the back up catcher and send Butera, not back to AAA but to AA. I am going to pull a quote from the "The Lost World, Jurassic Park" and reference that taking dinosaurs off this island is the worst idea in the long history of bad ideas. And I am going to be there for when you realize that. And making Wilson Ramos stay up with the Twins in May to to play 1 game a week and get roughly get 16 to 20 at bats a month is just as dumb if not dumber. It is the same ridiculous argument posed in spring training. And the decision was made in spring that Ramos NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS to play everyday. The only way he can do that is if he remains in AAA Rochester. The reason why Ramos has played so well is because he has 67 at bats this season and has caught 16 games. He was not going into a situation cold with little experience, like Butera would have been.

Listen, keeping Ramos up to BACK UP Joe Mauer kills his value. Because no other team in baseball would want to trade an asset of their team for a guy who has played 18 games this season and 54 games last year. In the long term people are just going to have to accept the fact that Wilson Ramos will most likley not be with the Twins organization longer then this year. He is a very coveted player around the Major Leagues and I am sure that their is one team out their who would be willing to give a nice return for Ramos.

Idea number 2 that is also dumb is keeping Ramos in Minnesota long term and try and convert Joe Mauer into a third baseman. Just let that idea really roll around in your head before actually made an assessment on it. This is what a normal persons logic would be. You want to take the BEST catcher in all of baseball, a guy who just won the MVP, 2 gold gloves (as a catcher) and 3 batting titles all from that position and convert him into a third baseman, a position he has not played maybe since high school where he only did it on the days he would not catch, just so you can prolong his career? Really? That is the idea? DUUUUMMMBBBBB!!!! The reason why the Twins gave Mauer all that money is because he is the best at what he does. If you try and introduce him to something he really has never done before on the basis that he is a good athlete and he can do anything, you basically make the worst business decision and baseball decision ever. Just think about what guys like ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Network would say. They would crucify the Twins for being so blinded and retarded.

Just think about some of the better hitting catchers of recent time. Those being Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek. Both of them were able to catch 130+ games a year up to their age 34, 35 and even 36 season. Mauer is better then these guys. If you remember Mauer is under contract until his age 36 season. In that span of 9 years Mauer will be under contract I am sure he will have 4 or more backups. But Mauer will remain. Because he is Mauer.

Idea number 3 is not a retarded as the first 2 but is still a stretch in my mind. Is basically goes like this. The Twins have Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel under team control for the next 2 years. That is the rest of this year 2010 and all of next year in 2011. The idea is to Keep Ramos up with the big team as a back up catcher for this year and next year (waste of talent and time) and then let one or both of these guys walk in free agency after 2011. After that Joe Mauer and Wilson Ramos will form a catcher/DH platoon where Mauer will catch 100 games a year and Ramos will catch 60 and the one who does not catch will DH on that day. It does not sound like such a bad idea but their are some problems. Problem one. You are still wasting 2 years of Ramos' career by making him be a back up for the rest of 2010 and all of 2011. Ramos will not be an everyday player in the Majors until he is 25 years old when he is ready to play everyday now at age 22. Your team will have to have faith that Ramos will be ready to take over for Kubel or Cuddyer, 2 guys who have been arguably some of the better power hitters and run producers in the game. The contingency plan to this plan is to trade Cuddyer or Kubel after the 2010 season and put the catching platoon plan into effect in 2011. This is basically saying your are confident that Ramos can step in and be just as productive as a guy who hit 32 homeruns (Cuddyer) or a guy who drove in 102 RBI while hitting .300 (Kubel). If you truly think Ramos can be that productive fine, but I am not ready to make that conclusion.

If you put this idea into place your are basically saying we are not keeping Kubel or Cuddyer after the 2011 season anyway. Remember the Twins are a very bad defensive outfield. If you trade Cuddyer you are making your defense even worse letting Kubel play right field everyday. Neither cover much ground but Kubel covers less. And Cuddyer has a much better arm. And in theory after 2011, top prospect Aaron Hicks should be close to ready to be called up which would place him in center field and move Denard Span to left field and Delmon Young to right field. If this is the real plan this is the Twins lineup in 2012 compared to now

2010
Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Michael Cuddyer RF
Jason Kubel DH
Delmon Young LF
JJ Hardy SS
Nick Punto 3B

2012
Denard Span LF
Aaron Hicks CF
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morenau 1B
Wilson Ramos DH
Delmon Young RF
JJ Hardy SS
Danny Valencia 3B
Luke Hughes 2B

If you can see this is now a very right handed heavy hitting lineup. Only lefties coming from the 1 through 4 hitters (Hicks being a switch hitter). You take away that balance that makes this years lineup so good. Also their are some major question marks with 2012. Like with Cuddyer and Kubel gone, can Ramos, Young and Valencia make up for that loss? It just seems like a high risk and a lot of maneuvering to do when this teams best opportunities are to win the whole thing might be in this 3 year window. The team should be more invested into winning this year then finding a place for Ramos.

This is my crazy idea. And it can go one of two ways. The first way is this. You send Ramos back down to AAA when Mauer is back and healthy. Let Ramos keep playing everyday, getting his at bats and being on call if Mauer is hurt again. On August 15 when their is a month and a half left in the season you call Ramos up to be Mauer's backup for the stretch run at the playoffs. Ramos will get a good amount of playing time in about 3 months of AAA so he is not cold when he is called up. When rosters expand to 40 on September 1st you say Ramos will be your backup catcher for when rosters shrink back down to 25 for the playoffs. Then you go into the playoffs with 2 guys who have had full seasons and will make your playoff roster that much more dangerous.

Crazy idea number 2. I am going to put Wilson Ramos's chances of remaining with the Twins long term at about 25%. Which means he will in fact be traded. The team that the Twins put together for this season is the best team they have had is years, maybe even decades. Their is a team out in Seattle that invested a lot into contending this year and are not. They have a former Cy Young pitcher by the name of Cliff Lee who is in the final year of his contract. Cliff Lee has said he will explore free agency after the season. Seattle might be looking to move him mid year if they are not winning. The Twins could swap Wilson Ramos straight for a Cliff Lee rental and go the final couple months with 2 left handed aces in Lee and Fransisco Liriano, forming a dynamic duo for the playoffs that will be hard to compete with. The odds of resigning Cliff Lee are in fact low, so he will probably walk in free agency. HOWEVER!, Minnesota will offer Lee arbitration and when Lee walks in free agency the Twins will collect a first round draft pick which in the long run will be of equal value to what Wilson Ramos was anyway. So to be honest how much do you really lose?

All in all I am very impressed what Ramos is doing for the club with Mauer down. But the fact of the matter is this team has Joe Mauer and there is no place for Wilson Ramos. Which means something will need to be done within the next few months. The Twins should not sit on Ramos the same way the Rangers did their trio of young catches. They missed out on trades when their values where at their highest and now they are stuck with all three. Ramos' value is sky high now and they should be listening to offers soon.

April Review of Twins Farm

2010-05-02T16:28:00.000-07:00

First month of the season. Lets take a look at my top 21 prospects. Rating who had a good April and who struggled.

21. (-) BJ Hermsen: BJ's 2010 season has yet to begin as he was held back in extended spring training. I got a chance to talk to him on a podcast hosted by myself and DW the Great and he said he will most likley head to the Appalachian League to start the year but hopes to get some innings at Beloit at some point.

20. (-) Matt Bashore: Bashore has also been held back in extended spring training. This mostly due to his arm injury that cut his 2009 short. Twins are trying to build his arm strength back up. He will possibly go to the Appalacian League this year. Bashore has a chance to skip Low A ball in 2011 if he pitches well because he is 22 now.

19. (Up) Deolis Guerra: It might be starting to come together for the now 21 year old. Guerra has made 3 starts this year pitching 18 innings with a 3.50 ERA. More importantly Guerra who was notoriously known for his control issues has not walked a batter this year. Minnesota's main goal for Guerra is to let him gain more confidence in his fastball. Guerra has a devastating change up but tends to throw it too much.

18. (Way Down) Chris Parmelee: In the first couple weeks of the season, nobody in the Twins system was hitting but Parmelee. Since then everybody has been hitting except for Parmelee. If that makes sense. He is hitting a very ugly .161 (.029 in past 10 games) and has struck out 20 times compared to just 4 walks. I said at the beginning of the year that is might be a make or break for the former 1st round pick. So far Parmelee is doing what he can to break it.

17. (Up) Anthony Slama: It is hard to believe that we are still waiting for Slama to be put on the 40 man roster. Once again Slama is dominating minor league hitters and is showing he really has nothing left to prove with a 1.10 ERA and 20K in 16 innings for AAA Rochester. He has .115 BAA. We are obviously going to see Slama at some point this year. Just curious what the move is going to be to get him there.

16: (Up) Alex Burnett: I was surprised and excited to see Burnett on the Opening Day roster when Clay Condrey was not ready. Since then the 22 year old is making a case that he belongs with the big team for the future. Burnett has gone from a mop up guy to someone who is getting some quality close and late innings. In 10 innings Burnett has a 3.60 ERA and 12 strikeouts. He did not look great against Cleveland walking 4 and getting his first MLB loss but he has definitely shown he belongs here. I still think Gardenhire and Anderson need to find a role for him because their have been instances where he has been under worked (loss to DET) or over worked (loss to CLE).

15. (Average) Billy Bullock: When looking at the numbers (4.76 ERA), you might say Bullock has struggled this season. However the 6 total ER given up have came in 2 outings. Other then that Bullock has had 7 appearances where he has been dominant. Bullock has 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings and a 2.80 ground out to fly out ratio.

14. (Down) Tyler Robertson: Robertson's odd mechanics might be beginning to catch up with him. He has a 4.79 ERA through 20 innings and a 10/7 K/BB ratio. Remember in 2007 Robertson has 10K/9 and now that has decreased significantly since his 2008 arm injury.

13. (Upish) Rene Tosoni: Tosoni was surprisingly held back in AA this year. This has been in part to the Twins bringing back Jaque Jones, but it has not slowed Tosoni's bat down. He is hitting .338/.379/.500 but is striking out 4 times for every walk.

12. (Down) Joe Benson: I have always said Benson has tools, but like former Twin Carlos Gomez he has yet to put any of them together. Right now Benson is struggling along with the rest of AA New Britain (4-18) by hitting .116/.291/.258. Benson needs to start heating up before he gets passed over by the rest of the deep crop of outfielders Minnesota has.

11. (-) Max Kepler: I am very high on Kepler, but the 16 year old has not started his season yet because he was held back in extended spring. Kepler will start in the GCL and be part of a loaded team with Jorge Polanco, Wander Guillen and Miguel Sano.

10. (-) Adrian Salcedo: Salcedo was reported to look great in camp with a 94 MPH fastball and a plus curve ball, but the 19 year old will be held back one more time to no overwork his innings load for 2010.

9. (Up) Angel Morales: Morales must have been upset when he found up he was held back in Beloit. But he has been playing quite well in spite of it by hitting .274/.349/.466, tied for the lead in the organization with 3 home runs and 8 stolen bases. Morales still has some holes in his swing by striking out 22 times to just 6 walks. He will be promoted to Ft Myers sooner rather then later because that team needs some big help with a struggling line up.

8. (Average) Carlos Gutierrez: The 2008 first round pick is back in the rotation for 2010. His numbers are not great with a 5.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.52 but Gutierrez has had better strikeouts numbers (20 in 25 innings) and he gets nearly 3 ground ball outs for 1 fly ball. Its more interesting to see what he does around the 70+ inning mark to see if he is still maintaining stamina. If not he will be a long term bull pen option if he wants to be a big league pitcher.

7. (Up) David Bromberg: The 2010 Florida State League pitcher of the year has hit the ground running in AA. In 24 innings Bromberg has a 1.13 ERA, .214 BAA, and 19 strikeouts. Bromberg threw 153 innings in 2009 and if he continues to pitch like this he could be promoted to Rochester this season and could challenge to be in the 2011 Opening Day rotation in Minnesota.

6. (Down) Danny Valencia: Valencia is still looked at as the Twins 3B of the future. He has not earned his spot in Minny just yet though hitting .264 with not much power. Of course Brendan Harris and Nick Punto have not done enough to show that they are a long term option so if Valencia can get his bat going we still could see him around the All Star break.

5. (Above Average) Ben Revere: Revere is doing what we expect. He is hitting .300 and is showcasing his plus plus speed. Revere has showed little power in 3 professional seasons, this year being no different with 2 doubles being his only extra base hits. We all know Revere does not bring much power anyway, but that means he is going to have to continue to hit for high average to keep his value.

4. (Down before May 2, Up After May 2) Wilson Ramos: Ramos has struggled in AAA, but with a foot injury to Joe Mauer, Ramos made his Major League debut and flourished. Ramos went 4 for 5 and played very well defensively. He made a nice play at the plate to stop the tying run from scoring and also showcased a rocket arm. By getting this Major League exposure, Minnesota has an opportunity to start raising the stock price on Ramos if he plays well. He is a premium long term trade chip, and we have already heard rumors that Boston might be interested, but Ramos' age (22) and upside allow Minnesota to ask for whatever they want (Clay Bucholz, Daniel Bard or Casey Kelly). Buster Onley also rumored that Minnesota could get a 3B for Ramos, but did not mention any names.

3. (-) Miguel Sano: Sano has not made his debut yet however just celebrated his 17th birthday. Sano will start his year in the GCL, but will be the most looked at prospect in the Gulf Coast League since Miguel Cabrera in 2000.

2. (Way Up) Kyle Gibson: Gibson is better then I thought simply to say. Gibson is 2-1 in 30 innings pitched and has a 1.76 ERA. Other notable stats are his 28K to 7BB and a ridiculous 5.10 ground ball outs for every fly ball. Gibson really showed his stuff this week throwing a complete game, 1 hit shutout facing the minimum 27 batters. Gibson's 1 hits was an infield single. It may be time to start mapping Gibson's path to the Majors. Just to speak of Matt Garza's 2006 where he threw 44 innings in A+, 57 innings in AA and 34 innings in AAA that ended with a call up to Minnesota. Garza finished 2006 with a 1.99 ERA and 154K in 133 total minor league innings. I still do not think Gibson will make the Majors this year, but he could challenge for a rotation spot by early next year.

1. (Rock Bottom then Sky High) Aaron Hicks: Hicks got off to a horrific 1 for 31 start. I was being harassed by one DW but Hicks is making myself and scouts look pretty smart now. The 20 year old's next at bat after the slump was a home run. After a stretch now where he is hitting well over .500 and has now run his numbers up to .316/.447/.500. Hicks is playing so good that his promotion to Fort Myers may come sooner then expected.

End of April

2010-04-30T07:36:00.001-07:00

April is over. The Twins are in first place 14-8. They finally lost their first series to the Tigers this weekend to what was really an ugly series. To be honest I do not even want to talk about it. Scott Baker's mechanics are off and you can tell he is leaving the ball up the same way he was last April. The bullpen finally imploded and the offense finally got shut out for the first time. Credit that Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer were out of the lineup that game.

Twins Up:
Fransisco Liriano: I think it is safe to say he has arrived. Liriano is in a stretch of 23 consecutive innings without giving up a run. Liriano looked spectacular out dueling Tiger ace Justin Verlander. Liriano went 8 innings walked 2 and struck out 10 (double digits for first time since 2006). I am still waiting for him to have a rough start where he needs to battle. He did that in his first start against Chicago, but that was opening day and it was under 40 degrees so I just want to give that a wash.

Side Note: congrats to Luke Hughes. In his first major league at bat, Hughes went yard on national tv (ESPN). Tigers fans kindly threw the ball to Maglio Ordonez who threw the ball to the Twins dugout. He has also played some very good defense and looks like he belongs. Twins might be looking for Hughes to be a better long term option at 2B over Alexi Casilla or Matt Tolbert.

Twins Down:
Health: Joe Nathan, Nick Punto, JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson, Justin Morneau, Jose Mijares, Pat Neshek have all has some sort of injury during this course of this season. I really do not want this to be a season where we say for months, "lets just wait until they are full strength". Might not happen.

After April I just want to clarify what I have right so far from my preseason predictions.
1)Fransisco Liriano is clear cut comeback player of the year.
2)Twins are still on pace for over 90 wins
3)Twins are on pace to be better then the AL West Champ who I still think will be LA
4)Twins are better then Red Sox and Angels
5)Denard Span is on pace for 30 steals even though he is hitting well below .250
6)John Rauch will easily clear 20 saves
7)Pat Neshek will definitely have 0 saves
8)Carlos Gutierrez is still a toss up as starter or closer.
9)I said Liriano will be under 4.00 ERA. Right now he is under 1.00
10)Twins did reach out to San Diego for Heath Bell but conversations died in March
11)I still think a package will include either Ben Revere or Angel Morales who are both hitting well.
12)Twins look like they will have 3 guys go 200 innings right now. I initially thought Blackburn was going to be one of them but I did not specify in my predictions so suck it.
13)Twins Minor League pitcher of the year right now is Kyle Gibson. Liam Hendricks is making a run but Gibson's complete game 1 hit shutout gave him the edge so far.

Up Next:
Twins are off to Cleveland for 3 game series with the Indians to close their 9 game road trip. Nick Blackburn was scratched for game 1 which will go to Kevin Slowey. Slowey went 8 great innings last week against the Indians with 9 strikeouts.

Friday: Kevin Slowey vs Fausto Carmona
Saturday: ? vs Justin Masterson
Sunday: Fransico Liriano vs David Huff

Twins do not know whether Blackburn will be ready for Saturday. Chance of Brian Duenseng making a spot start or Blackburn being put on DL with elbow discomfort and possibly Jeff Manship getting the call up.

6th Straigh Series Win, but 3rd Straight Blown Sweep

2010-04-25T15:35:00.000-07:00

The Twins were able to take 2 of 3 from the Kansas City Royals to continue the Twins streak of series wins which now stands at 6. The Twins who are now 13-6, though have missed out on their 3rd straight opportunity to finish off their opponent with a sweep. In Game 1 Carl Pavano was able to bounce back from a really rough start at Target Field against Kansas City to pitch 7 strong innings and rack up his 3rd win of the season. The Twins bats caught fire in an 8 to 3 win. Game 2 was a war that needed extra innings. A game that was delayed by heavy rain ended up going extras after Jon Rauch blew his first save on the young 2010 season. Rauch gave up a couple hits in the bottom of the 11th to tie the game but came back out for the 12th to finish off the Royals and give the Twins a 9 to 7 win. Game 3 seemed like it was a definite win as Kevin Slowey, who has never lost to the Royals was on the mound for the Twins. Slowey struggled to locate the ball and the lineup failed to deliver with the bases loaded in the 8th inning.

My take on this series is still positive. I personally thought that the Twins were not going to take this series. Lets face it, they are off to an incredible start. And on top of that they are not playing their best baseball while doing it. Basically what I think happens is when a team is playing the way they are, their is usually a rough patch in the season instead of seeing them start to click on all cylinders. The Royals are arguably the worst team in the entire American League. They have a terrible defensive infield, as you saw with a number of errors made this weekend, their bullpen is easily the worst in the entire Major Leagues, and most of the hitters and pitchers on the current roster are just stop gap guys for the Minor League talent on its way. The Twins were still able to pull out another series win and are off to face a Detroit Tigers team who should have won the division last year and still has a ton of talent aboard.

Twins Up:
Joe Mauer: I tan becry not to mention Mauer as much as I cause he is an All World player and does not need the extra sucking up. But he had a really good series. He went 8 for 16 over the weekend including a 5 hit night in the 12 inning battle. After catching 12 innings, Mauer stepped up on Sunday afternoon and said he would catch a day game after a night game, because he is that much of a competitor and probable wanted the sweep to going into an off day.

Carl Pavano: was rocked by the same Royals lineup less then a week ago. He was able to bounce back and come into their park and pitch a great game with 7 innings, 2ER, 0BB and 5 strikeouts.

Twins Down:
Nick Blackburn: Their must be something wrong with Blackburn. At least I just hope their is something wrong. Becauase if this is what the Twins thought they were giving $14 million dollars to in spring they would have said no thankyou. Twins were still able to win inspite of Blackburn's poor performance but on the season now, he has pitched with the following line;
23.2 innings, 33 hits, 18ER (6.85 ERA), 6HR, 7BB and 6 strikeouts. Boy is that ugly
He needs to either fix or might be heading to the DL. Look for maybe Jeff Manship or Brian Duenseng to take over the spot if he does not get it together.

Denard Span: It was not only grounding out with the bases loaded in the rubber match, but Span did not play well all weekend. He went 2 for 16 over the weekend, dropping his average .028 points. Span's splits might be the source of his struggles. He is currently hitting .333 of right handers and .216 of lefties. He also might just feel more comfortable at Target Field (and who wouldn't) as he is hitting .367 at home and .154 on the road.

Up Next:
The Twins head to Detroit (10-9) to take on the second place Tigers. This is the first meeting with Detroit since Game 163. Some very interesting pitching match ups and maybe project some days off for some Twins stars. Expect to see Michael Cuddyer move around this series. He could play some center field if and when Denard Span looks for his first day off of 2010 and maybe first base for when Justin Morneau will get his first day off. Game 1 will be match up of aces as Fransisco Liriano will look to continue his hot start against Justin Verlander. Game 2 will be the Twins first ever look at Max Scherzer who came over in the Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson trade and game 3 Carl Pavano will look to continue to dominate the Tigers (4-1 3.00 ERA in 2009 vs DET) will face Dontrelle Willis who has pitched a total of 5.2 innings against Minnesota in the past 3 years. In those 5 innings the Twins are hitting .409 against Willis.

Tuesday: Fransisco Liriano (2-0 1.29 ERA) vs Justin Verlander (1-1 6.95 ERA)
Wendesday: Scott Baker (2-2 4.81 ERA) vs Max Scherzer (1-1 2.63 ERA)
Thursday: Carl Pavano (3-1 4.24 ERA) vs Dontrelle Willis (0-1 5.00 ERA)

NFL Draft and Vikings Thoughts

2010-04-23T09:17:00.000-07:00

The NFL Draft is over. Some interesting things happened for the Vikings and the NFL for that matter. I will not talk anymore about Tim Tebow because I do not think he is worth mentioning. On the day of the draft, mocks had the Vikings taking a number of players at the number 30 pick. They ended up trading it to the Detroit Lions and moving back 4 spots to 34th overall (round 2). What does that mean?

Number 1: With Jimmy Clausen still on the board at 30 and the Vikings not taking him, Minnesota is very confident that 40 year old Brett Favre will return for the final year of his contract.

Number 2: Rick Spielman and Brad Childress though that Tavaris Jackson was a better long term fit for the Vikings then Clausen

Number 3: The Vikings may think that the 2011 QB crop has better talent then Clausen and Colt McCoy.

Number 4: Their guy was Patrick Robinson, CB from Florida State. He was swiped up at 32 by the Saints. We can say the Saints got the best of Minnesota again.

At 34: The following guys will be on the board, of course Clausen, All American Safety Taylor Mays from USC, Virginia stand out CB Chris Cook, Texas linebacker Sergio Kindle, and Texas QB Colt McCoy. Vikings said they are spotting 4 guys right now for the 34th pick, I can guarantee and Mays and Cook are 2 of them. But with some teams now salivating that they can get Jimmy Clausen in the second round, some teams might be willing to overpay to move up to 33 and 34. I think the Vikings are playing it well, not saying anything. Maybe some team like Buffalo or Kansas City will come up tonight and offer their second rounder this year and another solid pick and the Vikings can continue to add depth to their team through the draft.

Last night I wanted Clausen. If they took Clausen tonight I will be happy. If they do not take him, I will not be angry because this team is in a better position to win in 2010 with Favre then 2011 with Clausen. So lets keep building up a super team to compete with New Orleans, Dallas, Indianapolis, and the NY Jets who all got better yesterday.

If I am the Vikings I trade back again. Their guy should be the corner back from Virginia by the name of Chris Cook. Cook is 6 feet 2 and 210 pounds. He ran the second fastest time at the combine for a corner back at 4.44 seconds. The Vikings have major question marks in the secondary with Cedric Griffin probably missing the first month or 2 recovering from knee surgery and Antoine Winfield continuing to age. The picked up former pro bowl corner Lito Sheopard. I love this move. If they take Cook, they will have a guy who had first round talent. Academic and injury problems kept Cook off the field his first couple years at school but when he played he was special. If it does not work out for Cook, he also has the skills to move to safety.

By acquiring some more picks, the Vikings will be able to move up from their additional second round pick, which I believe is 62nd overall. If they move up from their they could be in position to take a running back which will be the eventual replacement for Chester Taylor. This is a 2 back league now, Adrian Peterson needs help so he can prolong his career and not end up like Ladanian Tomlinson who was only good for 7 years. Peterson is going into his 4th. The two guys who would be perfect fits are Dexter McCluster of Ole Miss and Joe McNight of USC. Both are great pass catchers and dynamic talents on the field. McCluster might end up being a better version of Darren Sproles and McNight was always refereed to as Reggie Bush Jr.

If the Vikings can leave day 2 of the draft, where the Vikings have 3 picks as of now, with either a safety, running back, and a corner then the draft will be a success.

Twins Take Series From Tribe, now 11-5

2010-04-22T11:51:00.001-07:00

After the 2008 season, three young pitchers stepped forward for the Twins to start the healing process after the departure of Johan Santana. Scott Baker then 26 finished the year 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA, 24 year old Kevin Slowey went 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA and Fransisco Liriano returned from Tommy John surgery to throw 76 innings with a 3.91 ERA at the majors. Going into 2009, these three were set to front the new brand of Twins pitching to take to the post season. It did not go as planned. Baker (who was slotted for opening day) began the year on the DL with shoulder pain and proceeded to have a terrible April. He was able to bounce back by pitching 200 innings and had 15 wins but still had a 4.27 ERA. Kevin Slowey started hot going 10-3 but was struck by a ball in the wrist and lost velocity and control and would eventually be placed on the DL for the year. After 90 innings Slowey had a 4.86 ERA and his record seemed to hide how bad he really was. As for Liriano he was down right terrible. 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA. In spite of these three the Twins still some how won the division. However none of the 3 started in the playoffs. Baker started game 163 to get in the playoffs, Liriano was demoted to the pen and Slowey was recovering from wrist surgery.

2010 was new beginnings for these three and they have made the most of it. The Twins took 2 of 3 games from Indians this week, giving them an 11-5 record and the best start in franchise history. First time the Twins have won the first 5 series to start a season. Pitching is what won the series for the Twins. Kevin Slowey dominated game 1 going 8 innings giving up 1 run and striking out 9. Fransisco Liriano also went 8 innings shutting out the Tribe and racking up 6 K. Scott Baker had a solid 5 innings but got shelled in the 6th by Cleveland giving up 10 hits and 6 runs in 5.2 innings. This was kind of expected considering that Cleveland was held to just 1 run in the previous 18 innings against Twins pitching. The Twins missed out on their third opportunity to sweep a division opponent however it is still the fact that they have taken 5 straight series.

Twins Up:
Kevin Slowey and Fransisco Liriano: as mentioned, combined for 16 innings they gave up 1 run walked 2 and combined to strikeout 15 guys. Kevin Slowey was so good that I did not even notice his stat line until the 5th inning because he was working so fast. Liriano never threw more then 15 pitching in an inning and the one time he got in trouble he forced an inning ending double play with the bases loaded.

Twins Down:
Jason Kubel: needs a hug and day off. Kubel went 0 for the series with 7 strikeouts and is now hitting below .200 on the year. This is not a lefty/righty split thing. He is hitting left handed hitters .300 and right handers .176. Basically means he is just slumping and needs to get out of it.

Scott Baker: gave up a 3 fluke doubles to start game that literally hit the chalk to start the game. But the 6th inning was no fluke. He got hit hard, and a final stat line of 10 hits and 6 runs ran his ERA from 3.38 to 4.81 on the season. Just a few positive notes, Baker's ERA was close to 10 through 4 starts last year. He did not have 2 wins until May 24th. He did not get his ERA below 5 until June 30th. He has done all those things set on April 22nd. So it could be worse.

Hitting: The Twins offense may be in somewhat of a slump, even though they are getting on base at a better pace then the Yankees, but Thursday was no slump. Mitch Talbot looked extremely good. To be honest he is a prototypical Rick Anderson type pitcher. He pounded the strike zone early and even pitched well with 3 ball counts. His change up was very good and I was very impressed. The only hard hit ball off Talbot was a Justin Morneau RBI double, that may should not have been because Andy Marte dropped a lazy fly out that should have never gave Morneau and opportunity to hit in the inning.

Whats next: The Twins end their first Target Field home stand with a 6-3 record and now head to Kansas City, Detroit and these same Indians. Carl Pavano will look to bounce back from a dreadful start against the Royals. Nick Blackburn was pushed back a day because of forearm and elbow pain. He has not looked good at all in 2010 giving up 6 home runs already. Luckily the Twins will not have to see Zack Grienke. But the game to look forward to next week will be Tuesday night as Fransisco Liriano will get his big test against Justin Verlander.

Friday 7:10 CT: Carl Pavano (2-1, 4.96 ERA) vs Gil Meche (0-1 11.57 ERA)
Saturday 6:10 CT: Nick Blackburn (1-1 6.05 ERA) vs Luke Hochevar (1-1, 2.89 ERA)
Sunday: 12:10 CT: Kevin Slowey (2-1, 2.45 ERA) vs Brian Bannister (0-1 4.58 ERA)

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2010-04-21T07:31:00.001-07:00

Draft is Thursday, Vikings are picking 30th so lets just get into it.

1.) St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma.
The pick was obvious after the National Championship by being Ndamukong Suh. Then it was obvious after the Super Bowl by being Gerald McCoy. After the combine and pro days, Bradford jumped up the board showing he is healthy and bigger. He has put on 25 pounds of muscle since his Sophomore year. He draws a lot of comarisons to Phillip Rivers with his size and arm motion. I think any team will take that.

2.) Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska.
Suh put up unheard of numbers as a defensive tackle at Nebraska. He is a guy the Lions should be drooling over. Their is debate over him and McCoy, however I do not see it. Suh dominated any and all offensive lineman in his way in 2009 and should transition well to the NFL.

3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma.
Not a bad conselation prize. Especially because McCoy is the Bucs guy. Draws a lot of comparisons to future Hall of Fame Buc, Warren Sapp. The Bucs are going to go back to that Tampa 2 defense and McCoy is going to be the center piece of that defense.

4.) Washington Redskins: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State.
The Redskins made big splash by trading a 2nd round pick to get Donavan McNabb. Now they have to protect him. If you want to rate Okung as a prospect in comparisons to when they took Chris Samuels when he was drafted 3rd in 2000, it is not that close. Okung is the safest pick of the tackles in this draft, however he will not be a guy who goes All Pro. However the needs is so big in Washington that is almost seems as a no brainier because he is the best one on the board. Redskins could consider trading out because this is the only pick they have in the top 100. So maybe dropping down and getting some more picks later on.

5.) Kansas City Chiefs: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
If this goes down, Oklahoma could have 3 of the top 5 picks and the state of Oklahoma could have 4 of the top 5. Williams has upside to be a very good tackle Very good size at 6-4, 315 pounds. The Chiefs need a true left tackle because Brandon Allen is better suited for the right side of the line. Their is a chance KC could trade out because the draft is deep with offensive lineman if Williams caliber. They could also take Eric Berry who could be a super star saftey.

6.) Seattle Seahawks: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson.
Pete Carrol era is going to begin Thursday. He has 2 picks in the top 14. Spiller is definitely high on the Seahawks board and could translate very well to that offense. However, Carroll would ideally like to get Spiller at 14, but the toolsy running back is moving up on a lot draft boards, primarily Jacksonville, so they may not want to risk it and get their guy here. Their are a needs at defensive end, safety and offensive tackle. Wild Card pick could be Jimmy Clausen as the QB of the future.

7.) Cleveland Browns: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Mike Homgren sent Dereck Anderson and Brady Quinn out of town and has the 7th pick in the draft. Might seem like a no brainier if Clausen is there but not so fast. Old school Brown teams had great defenses, the AFC North has arguably the 2 best safteys in the NFL in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Berry can be a clone of them.

8.) Oakland Raider: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Al Davis is running this team into the ground. This will be his last first round pick until 2012. He does not have a real QB, or a real coach. It is just a mess there. They need help on the offensive line. But Davis loves the work out freaks as he took Heyward-Bay over Crabtree last year. He could take Derrick Morgan who is the top defensive end in the draft but Davis will love Pierre-Paul's upside and go this route.

9.) Buffalo Bills: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame.
This is a key pick in the draft. If the Bills go O-Line, then trade madness could happen to try and trade up. The Bills however do not have a franchise QB, and have not had one since Jim Kelly. They tried with JP Lausman and Trent Edwards, but they are not the answer.

10.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Earl Thomas, S, Texas.
The Jags have taken DE over the years. Not many have panned out. They still have a need there but they could have possibly filled part of the void by signing Aaron Kampman. Jacksonville is not pleased with Reggie Nelson so far in his career. Jacksonville has an array of needs. They have a desired pick. They really really like Tim Tebow. I can almost Garnette Jacksonville will trade down, possibly with San Fransisco.

11.) Denver Broncos: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech.
It will be a shock if Morgan falls here. But if he does, Denver will be given a tough decision. They have a surplus of picks, and needs at WR, QB, LB and OL. But, Dez Bryant has some issues, and that is why they traded Brandon Marshall. Morgan edges out Ronaldo McClain because he can take over a game and harrass guys like Phillip Rivers and Matt Cassell.

12.) Miami Dolphins: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama.
The Dolphins made a big splash by getting Brandon Marshall. If we look at this pick, Miami would love a safety but the top 2 are off the board. The top linebacker is still there. McClain is a brilliant linebacker. If you watch any of his games, he calls plays at the line the same way Peyton Manning does. Very smart guy, will be a team captain for years.

13.) San Fransisco 49ers: Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa.
Joe Haden the top CB in the draft will be there, but he has had very poor workouts, and Bulaga might be the best fit. He can play 3 or 4 OL positions. He is not a great athlete to be a LT but he is still very consistent. Joe Staley and Bulaga could form a nice duo to protect Alex Smith who showed signs of life last year.

14.) Seattle Seahawks: Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan.
Patrick Kerney retired and Darrell Tapp is no longer in town. Graham showed a lot in the Senior Bowl and combine. His upside is huge with size, speed and strength.

15.) New York Giants: Joe Haden, CB, Florida.
New York would love to get McClain but, unless they move up, maybe to where Jacksonville is picking, I do not see it happening. Their are needs all over the defense for New York, but Haden is the best CB on the board and I am one who always thinks if you have the opportunity to take a guy who is the best player at their position, then you take him.

16.) Tennessee Titans: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee.
The Titans lost Albert Haynesworth last year via free agency. Dan Williams has rose up on boards and now looks like a high end prospect. He is a hometown guy, like Hayensorth, coming from Tennessee, and could be a great fit.

17.) San Fransisco 49ers: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho.
If the 49ers can go into the draft and walk out with a top 5 tackle and the top guard, that could be the best draft of any team this year. The 49ers being able to solidify that line with the talented skill players (Gore, David, Crabtree) should give Alex Smith no excuse to take that next step and take the 49ers to the play offs.

18.) Pittsburgh Steelers: Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida.
Steelers are a mess. If you look they possibly will start the year without the 3 best players from their Super Bowl year (Rothlisberger will be suspended, Parker in in Washington and Holmes is in New York). With the news happening with Big Ben, the Steelers might want to trade up. It could be possible that the Steelers swap Rothlisberger for the 8th pick and they select Jimmy Clausen. What a deal that that would be. A 2 time Super Bowl champ at age 28 for a 21 year old kid who finished his college career with a 16-21 record at Norte Dame .

19.) Atlanta Falcons: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas.
Atlanta desperately needs a DE, but they are all pretty much gone here. Kindle is an all around athlete and solid player here. Other picks being considered could be on the O-line and wide reciever.

20.) Houston Texans: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama.
The Texans have never had franchise running back. Ryan Matthews could be a solid fit, but Houston lost Dunta Robinson and now needs to fill that hole especially being in the same division as the Colts.

21.) Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma.
The Bengals struggled the most scoring points the last 2 games of the year. They signed Antionio Bryant from Tampa and now will take Gresham to give Carson Palmer more targets along with Chad Ochocino.

22.) New England Patriots: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech.
With Dez Bryant still on the board you may be surprised that he does not go there. However, their have been reports that he could be a clone to Charles Rogers and Mike Williams which scares teams off. You have not seen Thomas play, this is why I think he is going to be special. He never got big stats at Tech, but because they ran the option offense and only threw the ball 5 to 10 times a game, Thomas never go big numbers. But he made some big time plays and showed a lot of potential. Its no secret the Pats want help on the WR with Welker out for more then half the year and Randy Moss in the last year of his contract.

23.) Green Bay Packers: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State.
If the Packers did struggle at some point last year it was their pass defense. Most notably Brett Favre torching the Pack as well as Kurt Warner in the Wild Card playoff round. Al Harris and Charles Woodson, both older veterans and some youth for the future is what Green Bay needs.

24.) Philadelphia Eagles: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers.
The Eagles struggled to keep Donavan McNabb off his back. Epsecially in the playoffs. Now they are turning to Kevin Kolb who will need all the protection he can get. With the loss of Brian Westbrook another great pick here would be Jahvid Best of California who is a very very similar type back.

25.) Baltimore Ravens: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State.
Bryant falling all the way to 25 sounds crazy but that is what may happen. He definitely has talent. But a team like Denver does not want the issues that he brings. Baltimore has 2 guys who will play in front of him to start, with Anquan Boldin among others, but Dez could develop into a special talent.

26.) Arizona Cardinals: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
The Cardinals lost Carlos Dansby, who won the Wild Card game for them against Green Bay. But more importantly they lost Kurt Warner and will not finally turn the team over to Matt Leinart. The defense will need to be improved.

27.) Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State.
The Cowboys really do not have too many needs, however Robinson has the same kind of upside as Antonio Cromartie did a few years back.

28.) San Diego Chargers: Jahvid Best, CB, California.
Ryan Williams does have the better body suited to be an every day back to replace LT. However, the Chargers are now a passing offense and they want their backs to be able to catch the ball. Williams can not do that to well, which means Best might be the pick.

29.) New York Jets: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State.
What do the Jets really needs. They have three stud WR, a Hall of Fame RB and a 2nd year up and comer, a solid to above average O line, the number 1 defense in the NFL, a great coach and a QB who will be 23 this year. This is a franchise that is going in the right direction. All they want is depth and Odrick will fit well in the Rex Ryan scheme.

30.) MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Taylor Mays, S, USC.
The Vikings picking at 30 may not be a lock. I could see them moving out to get more picks or moving up if Jimmy Clausen falls. Their are needs at left guard on offense but can find that later on. It seems like they are liking Tavaris Jackson again as the QB of the future, but I do not care as long as Brett Favre is coming back. The defense has some holes due to injury and age. I am not sure if and when EJ Henderson is coming back from that horrific leg injury. Cedric Griffin tore his ACL in the NFC Championship, meaning the rehab might go into the season. Pat Williams is approaching 40 years old and is probably playing his last season in 2010. Antione Winfield struggled last year when healthy but was not healthy much of last year with a broken foot. They are a very good defense even without these guys but can be great with them. I think a big hole was at safety and corner. Devin McCourty might be a good pick from Rutgers but Mays can be a guy who will tell opposing players to not come over the middle. He would replace Tyrelle Johnson. If they stay here they will go secondary, but I really think that the Vikings will trade out to a team who is looking at Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy.

31.) Indianapolis Colts: Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers.
The Colts lost some guys to free agency and injury. They could use a safety especially with the constant inures of Bob Sanders. But they will just take best player available here which is McCourty.

32.) New Orleans Saints: Jerry Huhges, OLB, TCU.
The defending Super Bowl champs will try and get younger at linebacker. The Vikings really exposed the middle of their defense in the NFC title game, and had to get a lucky array of turnovers to get into the Super Bowl so Hughes will be the pick here.

Twins Take Series From KC But End On Sour Note

2010-04-20T06:20:00.000-07:00

The Minnesota Twins have opened the 2010 season taking the first 4 series of the season from the LA Angels of Anaheim, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals. The Twins are 9-4 and have taken the first 4 series for the first time in franchise history. The Twins are second in the AL in runs scored and 5th in team ERA.

Even with the hot start there have been rumblings from a specific group that this team is still not good enough. The Twins have not knocked in the big run, yet. However that should not be a sign to point to negativity. Minnesota is 3 for 19 with runners in scoring position. Well with even with that the Twins are projected to score 860 runs this year. So when watch out for when the weather gets warm and Mauer, Morneau and Kubel start hitting home runs. We should be more excited about other pitchers dealing with our line up then worrying about our pitchers dealing with the rest of the AL.

Their is no reason to be negative though. I would rather go the route the Twins are going then pitching and defense. If we look at the teams that have decided to go the route of pitching and defense this year, we can see that they clearly suck at it. The Red Sox and White Sox have been getting blown out of the water, because they decided to bring guys like Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, Juan Pierre and Mark Teahen in, with anticipation that guys like Alex Rios and David Ortiz are going to produce. They have not. And efficiency wise the Twins have better defense then them anyways. What I am trying to say is, pitching and defense helps you in the playoffs. Offense is what gets you there. And once you get to the playoffs, the pitchers kick it into another gear that we never see. (ex Pavano and Blackburn last year)

So what happened this weekend. The Twins overwhelmed Zach Grienke in route to a 10-3 win. Scott Baker looked great again. Game 2, the Twins offense got rolling again, but Nick Blackburn struggled and Orlando Hudson had to mash a bomb to left field that hit the facing of the deck. I have yet to see a ball hit there and I have already ruled it the most impressive home run hit in Target Field to date. Game 3 was a mess. The Twins had multiple opportunities to blow the game open early. But Carl Pavano had a horrific 2nd inning giving up 6 earned runs. They were able to make a comeback and cut the lead to 7-5 but Jesse Crain gave up a bomb to Alberto Callapso that busted it open.

Twins Up:
Scott Baker: continues to pitch well at home. He went 7 strong innings giving up 2 runs and not walking a batter while striking out 6. He will make his next start against Cleveland.

Micheal Cuddyer: might be made for Target Field. He is hitting .375 with 2HR and 9RBI so far in the 6 game home stand.

Denard Span: got off to such a bad start on the road that he has hit .381/.552/.524 at in 6 games to just run his average up to .245. Span is getting on base now at record pace. When you can say you can get on base over half of the time in the past 6 games, that is what I call a table setter.

Twins Down:
Nick Blackburn: has been getting roughed up lately. The Twins have given up 13 home runs this year and 6 of them belong to Captain Blackbeard. He needs to really get the ball down in the zone. I am still jumping back and forth whether the $14 million dollars dealt to him will look like a mistake. Especially with the Twins deep farm system (Gibson, Gutierrez, Bromberg all a year away from the majors). Blackburn's ERA is over 6 right now.

Carl Pavano: came back down to earth Sunday. He gave up 7 runs and 11 hits in 3.1 innings which shot his ERA from 1.2 to 4.96. This is what we get from Pavano. Remember this guy had a season ERA over 5 last year and 4.6 with the Twins. Games like this will happen. He is the number 5 starter who just happens to pitch 3rd in the rotation. That will be made apparent as the season goes along.

Jesse Crain: is making me nervous. But I hate when people call him Crain Wreck. When he pitches with the lead he thrives. When he is pitching from behind, he has given up 6 runs in less then 2 innings. Needs to start limiting those base runners after giving up 5 hits and 2BB in his last 2 outings.

Up Next: The Twins host the Cleveland Indians (6-6) tonight for a 3 game set. The Indians have been hitting very well after sweeping the White Sox. I said at the begining of the year that if they were going to win they would have to rake. And so far they have with help from pitchers David Huff and Mitch Talbot (who?) who already have thrown back to back complete games. When looking at the pitching names the series favors the Twins but the three guys going for Cleveland have done very well to start 2010.

Tuesday at 8:10 ET: Justin Masterson vs Kevin Slowey
Wednesday at 8:10 ET: David Huff vs Fransisco Liriano
Thursday at 1:10 ET: Mitch Talbot vs Scott Baker

Side Note:
NFL Draft is Thursday Night. I have been to 2 NFL Drafts in my time and have to say it is a blast, especially because it is free to go as long as you stand in line in front of Radio City Music Hall from 2AM to 7AM. I do not like how they are trying to take it to prime time. It is already one of the most watched sporting events every year with out really having sports involved.

The Vikings have the 30th pick. The past 4 years I have loved the picks Minnesota has made. Chad Greeway, Adrian Peterson, trading for Jared Allen, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin are all Pro Bowl talents. This is a unique year. The Vikings should have won the Super Bowl because they dominated New Orleans but somehow had 6 turnovers and lost in OT. Vikings have a list of needs. I think Brett Favre is coming back, but I would welcome Jimmy Clausen if the Vikings wanted to trade up. If they traded down to to take Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow, I would not mind that either. However they have some work to do on defense. Most likley situation would be if they take either a corner of a safety. I personally love Taylor Mays. He reminds me a lot of the late Sean Taylor. But with injuries to EJ Henderson, Cedric Griffin that might tap into the season and the age of Pat Williams and Antione Winfield, the Vikes have some work to do.

Twins Roll To Take Series from Sox

2010-04-15T12:14:00.000-07:00

The Twins were able to win their first ever game and series in Target Field over the Boston Red Sox. Game 1 was started by Carl Pavano and he picked up his second win of the year going 6 great innings. Game 2 was the the first time the Twins played a home game with rain in over 29 years. Kevin Slowey was on the hill and struggled in a 6 to 3 loss. Game 3 was today on a beautiful afternoon. Fransisco Liriano looked as good as he has since late August 2008. Twins bats came alive to beat up Tim Wakefield as the Twins open up the first 10 games of the year at a 7-3 record. The line up is showing glimpses of their potential but are still 0 for the season with the bases loaded so far. Scary to think they can be much better because Span is still only hitting under .200 and Orlando Hudson has a 7 game hit streak going but is hitting .227. If these guys start to get on base for Mauer and Morneau we will start to see big things.

Twins Up:
Carl Pavano: Has had a great start to his season. He is mixing his pitches well and that 2 seem fastball he throws has been frustrating left handed hitters. On the year he is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. In 13 innings he has given up 10 hits with a 10/1 K/BB ratio.

Fransisco Liriano: In his second consecutive quality start, Liriano was fantastic. After battling through 4 base runners in the first 2 innings Liriano bounced back to retire 10 in a row and finish his day with 7 innings 4 hits 2BB and 8 strikeouts. His fastball was 92 to 94 all day and looked very composed on the mound. The Twins need to be excited from what the have seen so far from the lefty as his controll improved from his opening start against Chicago.

Twins Down:
Kevin Slowey: Slowey struggled in his first start against the Angels but looked worse against the Red Sox. He did not deal well with the elements as the mound became very muddy and he had to scrape his cleats repeatedly. Nonetheless Slowey only went 5 innings and gave up 3 earned runs. The strike zone was expanded for the game by an extra 5 inches by home plate umpire Mark Wegner and Slowey could still not find the strike zone as he walked 4 batters.

The bullpen was up last week but showed some struggles this series. Jesse Crain came in on Wednesday with the Twins trailing 3-2 and proceeded to load this bases and give up a bases clearing double to Jeremy Hermida. I was on the bandwagon that Gardenhire should of had a lefty in there but Duenseng was not available due to a stomach ailment and Mijares has not been great in general this year. Jose Mijares did not look too good Thursday, but was in the game on mop up duty. He loaded the bases, was very wild and got a lucky double play to end the inning. Twins recalled Ron Mahay and sent down Alex Burnett. With Mijares struggles continuing, and Brian Duenseng suffering from the flu, we will see more of Mahay in the future. He did strikeout 2 in a 123 inning.

Up Next: Twins will host the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have arguably the worst bullpen in the entire MLB. Their best starting pitchers thus fur have been of course Zach Grienke and former number 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar who is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in 12+ innings. Minnesota will see both of them this week. The first night game will ever be played at Target Field tomorrow night when the 2009 Cy Young winner opposes Scott Baker.

Friday: Zack Grienke vs Scott Baker
Saturday: Gil Meche vs Nick Blackburn
Sunday: Luck Hochevar vs Carl Pavano

Twins Fair Well on Road Before Opening Target Field

2010-04-12T10:39:00.000-07:00

The Minnesota Twins will open up brand spanking new Target Field later this afternoon against the Boston Red Sox. But before getting into that the Twins did finish up their 7 game road trip to open this season. After taking the final three games from the Angels the Twins took on the Chicago White Sox in a three game set. The first 2 went to the Twins, and Minnesota was beating the Sox at their own new game which was pitching and defense. The first game was an 11 inning war that ended with a JJ Hardy single drove in Joe Mauer. In game 2, Scott Baker pitched great going 7 strong innings and Jason Kubel hit a 2 run home run to give the Twins a 2 to 1 victory. Game 3 got off to a good start as the Twins scored early in the 1st and 3rd innings. Although Nick Blackburn pitched into the 8th innings he gave up 5 earned runs, and 3 HR. The game ended when Jim Thome mashed a hard hit ball of the wall in the 9th but JJ Hardy was unable to score from 1st base and the game ended.

Twins Up:
Twins bull pen: Their is no other way to put it. The Twins bullpen has been fantastic. In Chicago Matt Gurrier and Brian Duenseng both threw 2 big innings each in the 11 inning game. Jon Rauch recorded 2 more saves giving him a Major League Leading 4 on the season. He looked shaky in both outings but has not folded. At the beginning of the year I said Rauch would get at least 20 saves. So far so good. Also Jesse Crain has easily looked like the best guy out of the pen so far this year.

Scott Baker: After a disappointing first start on Opening Day, Scott Baker pitched great against the White Sox. He went 7 strong innings, only allowed 6 base runners and give up just 1 run. Baker is the key for Minnesota getting off to a good start after a dismal April the past few years.

Twins Down:
The combination of Fransisco Liriano and Drew Butera: Scanning quickly it was a positive that Liriano got a quality start (6 innings and 3ER) and kept the Twins in a game that they would eventually win in extra innings. But this duo was not functioning well at all (5BB and wild pitch). To me Liriano's stuff looked very good. His fastball was 92 to 95 with late movement in all 6 innings. His slider and change up were good but not great. They were not great because they were being thrown too often. In my opinion, Liriano's secondary offerings are not used to be thrown for strikes. They should be used to get strikeouts. As the game went along, Butera called a lot of first pitch off speed pitches that Liriano was not able to locate. Again it was Butera's major league debut and I also understand that a good amount signals come from the coaches, but at some point Liriano and Butera had to know that they were turning away from the fastball and shouldn't of.

Aaron Hicks: I am reaching down in the minors to my number 1 prospect has made me look rather unintelligent. Hicks has started the year off 1 for 14 with 8 strikeouts. Reports have said he has looked rather ugly doing it, but hopefully this is just an early season slump due to cool weather on Beloit.

Next Up: The long awaited opening Target Field has arrived. The Twins will take of AL East contender Boston Red Sox (3-3). After today's game both teams will get a day off Tuesday (much needed for Twins) and will finish off series Wednesday and Thursday which means Joe Mauer will likley catch all 3 games. Pitching Match ups will go as followed:
Today: John Lester vs Carl Pavano
Tuesday: Off
Wednesday: John Lackey vs Kevin Slowey
Thursday: Tim Wakefield vs Fransisco Liriano

Is the "Franchise" on his way back?

2010-04-10T06:13:00.000-07:00

Going into 2010 their were 3 games that got me the most excited. Obviously the first 2 were Opening Day and then the first regular season game played at Target Field. The third was the first start for Fransico Liriano. Last night Liriano made his 2010 debut and pitched quality 6 innings and 3 earned runs. Throwing 92 pitches Liriano only gave up 4 hits but walked 5 batters and had a wild pitch. Liriano's location issues may have been due to Drew Butera not calling enough first pitch fastballs. At some points the tandem seemed to turn away from it. What is more important that although Liriano struggled with his location, he still kept him team in position to win by delivering a quality start. Liriano had the best velocity we have seen from him since 2006 by running it up to 95 MPH.

Going into 2006 Liriano was one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball according to Baseball America. He joined the Twins as part of a trade that included All Star catcher Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser sending away catcher AJ Pierzynski. In 2006 Liriano overwhelmed the the Major Leagues as a rookie not seen since Dwight Gooden in 1984. He baffled American League hitters with a 94 to 96 MPH fastball and a slider that was untouchable. In 121 innings he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 10.7 K/9. Liriano was given the nickname "Franchise" by then Twins ace and 2006 Cy Young award winner Johan Santana. An elbow injury at the end of the season cut his campaign for rookie of the year short which caused him to miss the Twins playoff series against Oakland, and more importantly the 2007 season.

Liriano would work hard to try to come back in 2008. Liriano was called up at the beginning of 2008 for a spot start but did not have his pitches all together. He would spend the majority of 2008 trying to gain back his control and more importantly the confidence to let loose. To try and relieve stress on his arm, Liriano learned a third pitch which was a circle change up. It was a plus pitch as he did quite well in AAA Rochester through out the year. In 123 total minor league innings Liriano had a 3.42 ERA and struck out 131 batters. He earned a promotion at the end of the year back to Minnesota. Liriano dominated in August posting a 1.23 ERA in 6 starts and 36 innings (record 4-0). In total Liriano had thrown over 170 innings by September 1st and tired arm had begun to set in. He was solid but not great in September going 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in 29 innings. Optomism pointed to 2009 for Liriano has he was able to pitch a total of 199 innings in the minors and majors one year coming off Tommy John surgery.

After an shoulder stiffness plagued Scott Baker in spring training Liriano was picked to start Opening Day for the Twins. That was the high point. Liriano was not able to put any stretch together during the season to make his confidence grow. Physically he was just not able to locate his pitches. In addition to that he had lost some velocity in his fastball. A guy who was know to throw mid 90's in 2006 was barley cracking 90 throughout the season. He was also turning away from his slider and going to his change up in fear of another injury. At the end of the season Liriano was dropped from the rotation for Brian Duenseng. He pitched 136 innings in 2009 with a 5-13 record and a 5.80 ERA. Statistically he might have been the worst pitcher in the American League in 2009. His K/BB ratio was 122/65 and also gave up 21 home runs.

After trade rumors in the off season, reports came out that Liriano would participate in the Dominican Winter League World Series. Liriano began to be all over Twins news as he lead his team into the playoffs. In 7 playoff starts Liriano pitched 37 innings with a 0.49 ERA and a 47 to 5 K/BB ratio. Better yet Liriano had his stuff back. Game 9 of the DWL World Series was on ESPN 360. From what I watched he looked to be in good shape and was flaunting a 93-96 MPH fastball and was baffling hitters with the slider that was known as untouchable in 2006. In game 9 Liriano threw 5 innings gave up 1 hit and struck out 10 to win it for Leones del Escogido.

Hopes again were set high in spring for Liriano. As pitchers and catcher reported everything again was positive. He was set the with task that he would be competing with fellow left handers Brian Duenseng and Glen Perkins for the final spot in the rotation. He was throwing hard and had a new attitude that Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire loved. After Joe Nathan lost his season to Tommy John, rumors began to swirl that Liriano would be named the closer because he was showing such great stuff. In the end Liriano earned the last spot in the rotation. He pitched 20 innings and had a 2.70 ERA with 30Ks and only 5 walks. His stuff seemed to be back as he was showing a plus fastball with life (91-95) and the plus plus slider that gave him the name "Franchise".

Which brings us to last night. Liriano had good stuff. His fastball was 93 to 95 with a lot of late movement. His slider was really good and he threw some good change ups except the last one he threw to Alex Rios on a 1-2 count. Location is the next step in the process. He showed good command over spring which gives reason to believe that he can bounce back. His next start will be in Target Field against the Boston Red Sox, a very patient line up. Remember Liriano is still only 26 years old. He has the best stuff of any pitcher on the Twins staff. We have seen in the past when he is on that he can be an All Star. Of course their are questions about him because of how bad 2009 went. However, it is hard to over look how good he has been since last season ended. He wants to be a great starting pitcher. He can be a great starter. And if he does that takes the Twins from contender in the division to contender to the American League. If the Twins have a Fransisco Liriano that we saw in 2006 and late 2008, they have a left handed ace that can go up against guys like Jake Peavy, Justin Verlander and Zack Grienke inning for inning, pitch for pitch.

Twins Take 3 of 4 from Angels

2010-04-09T06:39:00.000-07:00

When the schedule first came out, we all knew we were going to know what the Twins were made of early on in the season, as their first 10 games were against teams that have made the playoffs in at least one of the last 2 years. The Twins were able to bounce back from opening day rough up to take three in a row from AL West Champ the LAA Angels most notably last night a 10-1 romping behind 3 home runs from Brendan Harris, Jim Thome and Delmon Young. Twins won their first series in LA since 2002. Through 4 games, the starting pitching had looked solid, but could improve. Scott Baker was very shaky in his first outing only going 4.2 innings and Kevin Slowey was hit pretty hard last night although he was able to control damage in the 5.1 innings he pitched and only gave up 1 run.

Twins Up:
Carl Pavno: Seemed to pick up right where he left off against the Yankees in the post season. Pavano went 7 strong innings giving up 1 run, and striking out 6 in route to his first win of the year. Pavano scattered 6 hits and did not walk a batter.

Jesse Crain: Crain pitched 2.1 innings in the 4 game set. He only gave up 1 hit and struck out 4. His fastball was 92-95 with last movement and his breaking pitches baffled batters last night as he struck out Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera, and Howie Kendrick to retire the side.

Delmon Young: Delmon did not have 2 home runs until June 29th in 2008 and June 20th in 2009. He got 2 this year on April 8th. Delmon also has 4 hits in 12 at bats. He has not taken a walk yet which leaves him with one of those rare occurrences of when a batting average is higher then his OBP. But he has driven in 6 runs already, scored 3 himself, stole a base and only struck out once.

JJ Hardy: Hardy may have found his stroke back. He cracked 2 home runs this series. In addition to going 5 for 16, Hardy was great with his glove at shortstop and has a cannon for an arm.

Alex Burnett: Burnett made his major league debut last night as a 22 year old in his hometown of Anaheim. His stuff looked good in his 1,2,3 innings throwing 90-92 with a good change up and potential for a plus breaking ball. Burnett made a case that he may be ready for some more high pressure situations.

Twins Down:
Orlando Hudson: Hudson hit .176 to start out year. He played a pretty good 2nd base although their were 2 instances where he could have made great plays but just misjudged flight of the ball. Hudson got hurt on a couple instances, when he was struck in the knee cap by a pitch in game 1 and then last night seemed to either got a stinger in his neck or possibly a concussion sliding into second base and hitting his head on Howie Kenrick's knee.

Scott Baker: Baker just never got going in his start on opening day. He threw 31 pitches and gave up 2 runs in the first inning. He gave up a long home run to a guy who is a .192 career hitter against righties (Jeff Mathis). Baker walked 3 and struck out 3 in his 4.2 innings of work and never seemed comfortable.

Denard Span: Lets just say he has looked ugly. Span who had a fantastic spring is only hitting .063. Ron Gardenhire had not helped the cause by taking the bat out of his hands on a few instances forcing him to lay down sac bunts.

Borderline:
John Rauch recorded his first 2 saves of the year. He gave up a run in the 9th when the Twins were up 4 to 1 to cut the lead to 2 but did not fold.
Jose Mijares got rocked on opening day giving up HR to Morales and Matsui. But bounced back in game 4 as his stuff looked nasty.

Up Next:
The Twins head to the South Side. Number 5 starter, Fransisco Liriano will make his long awaited return to the mound. A few months have felt longer then when he came back from Tommy John in 2008. Liriano will be opposed by John Danks of the White Sox. This game is a huge test for the 26 year old lefty (Liriano). He has dazzled in winter and spring ball. Now its time to put it all together for Minnesota.

Liriano is career 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA against Chicago
Danks is career 4-5 with 5.42 ERA against Twins

Other Notes: Joe Mauer will get tonight off after a long flight and 4 games caught. Orlando Hudson might get the day off as well. With a left on the mound in Danks, Brendan Harris might get start at 3rd and Nick Punto will start at 2nd. If that happens interesting to see who will hit second tonight.

About Last Night (Put one on the Board)

2010-04-07T05:59:00.000-07:00

Twins got their first win over the Angels last night 5 to 3.

Nick Blackburn had a quality start going 6 and 2/3 innings giving up 3 runs. He walked 4 and struck out another 4. Blackburn got off to a rocky start similar to Scott Baker on Monday, walking his first 2 batters but then go Torii Hunter to ground into a double play to the pitcher and then striking out Hideki Matsui. Blackburn was able to work through runners on all night allowing a total of 12 base runners.

Twins bullpen was a bright spot. Brian Duenseng came in the bottom of the 7th and got a pop out. Matt Gurrrier got 3 fly outs in the 8th. And the moment we all waited for, John Rauch got the save. He had a nice 1,2,3 inning with 2 strikeouts of Brandon Wood and Erik Aybar. He only faced the 8,9 and 1 hitters, but the first save was going to be the hardest and Rauch seemed to have no trouble.

Twins displayed their power at the plate. The M and M boys both cranked home runs, as well as new comer JJ Hardy. Michael Cuddyer went 3 for 4 but had some silly mistakes as he was picked off 2nd base. Instant replay indicated he was safe but he was called out because the throw got their so early. JJ Hardy also grounded into 2 double plays.

Seth Stohs and Travis Aune had a great podcast last night talking Twins minor league rosters. A few interesting moves, hold backs and promotions. The number by the players name is where they are ranked on my prospect list.

Rookie ball: the big three pitchers from the GCL, BJ Hermsen (21), Adrian Salcedo (10) and Blayne Weller will be held back in extended spring training. Based on performance 1 to all of them can make their way to Beloit this year. My number (20) Matt Bashore is reported to be healthy after arm stiffness from last season but will be held back as well.

Beloit: Aaron Hicks (1), Angel Morales (9) and James Berseford were all held back. Understandable because none of them really flourished in the league. But they all will move to Fort Myers at some point this year. Power arm Ben Tootle is expected to be the closer.

Fort Myers: Catcher Chris Hermann will skip 2 levels to be part of the catching platoon for the Miracle. He is a great athlete and can play 4 or 5 positions. Number (2) prospect Kyle Gibson will get the opening day call for the Miracle but will be put on the fast track. Shooter Hunt is also going to Fort Myers. Hunt has had control problems that are even hard to explain last year. But if he can show signs of improvement he could jump back into the conversation of prospect. I believe I heard that Paul Kelly was going to start the year in Fort Myers. Kelly always had prospect status as a good hitting short stop but has terrible knees and never stayed on the field. Still only 22 years old, Kelly still has a chance.

New Britain: This team is loaded with players from last years Miracle team that was one of the best in FSL. Opening Night starter Carlos Gutierrez (8) is throwing a 92 to 95 MPH sinker. Although he is starting now, Gutierrez could be the Twins closer of the future. David Bromberg (7) will be number 2 on the rotation. He has 3 strikout titles to his record and a FSL and Twins pitcher of the year. Deolis Guerra (19) is back in New Britain. Upside is still their, just waiting on performance. Tyler Robertson (14) has a high pitcher IQ but if he returns to his form of 2007 he could get a promotion. The outfield is loaded with tools. Ben Revere (5) Joe Benson (12) and Rene Tosoni (13) will form a speedy outfield and all have great bats. They could hit 1,2,3 in the order. Chris Parmelee (18) will play 1B and provide the power.

Rochester: is a veteran team. Danny Valencia (6) and Wilson Ramos (4) are the big names and will be in Minnesota as some point. Big things are expected of them. The back end of the bullpen seems like it is to be lights out. Anthony Slama (17), Rob Delany, Jose Lugo, Kyle Waldrop and eventually Alex Burnett (16) will all form a strong group. Burnett is already with the Twins due to an injury to Clay Condrey but may be back with Rochester in a week or 2. Again the Rochester team has a lot of veterans that may be granted their release at point during the season (Mike Maroth, Jaque Jones, Glen Perkins, and Jason Repko). This team could look very different in August or September.

Tonight Minnesota and LA will play the 3rd of 4 games to start off the season.
Carlo Pavano and Ervin Santana will make their first starts of the year. Both starters have near identical numbers against opposition.
Carl Pavano is 2-1 with a 5.13 ERA against Angels
Ervin Santana is 2-2 with a 5.13 ERA against Twins

Opening Day Thoughts

2010-04-06T07:12:00.000-07:00

Just a quick set of thoughts from Opening Day.

Denard Span and Joe Mauer went a combine 1 for 9 with 4 strikeouts. (they both got contract extensions this spring) frustrating but what can you do.

Opening Day Starter Scott Baker threw 31 pitches in the first inning and gave up 2 runs. He then gave up a home run to a guy who is a career .192 hitter of rightys. At the beginning of the year I said Baker was not as bad as he was last year but not as good as he was in 2008. What can you do.

When Delmon Young took a pitch on the inside half of the plate I was shocked that the one pitch Delmon has taken in his life was one he could crank. 2 pitches later Jered Weaver threw a fastball in the same spot and Delmon jacked it for a 2 run home run. In 4 at bats he got 2 hits and also stole a base. I am optimistic but in those 4 at bats he saw a total of 9 pitches.

Jesse Crain got 5 outs to keep the team in the game. He was throwing a fastball that was low to mid 90's paired with a good slider. My issues was that from what I saw you knew when he was going to throw his curveball.

Orlando Hudson was hit in the knee by a pitch and my stomach was in knots when he fell to the ground. Luckily he got up, chatted it up and played great defense all night. Interesting sequence when he hit a double over friend Torii Hunter's head and then proceeded to talk about it to Hunter, when he was standing on 2nd, Jered Weaver took offense to that and made it clear to Hunter how he felt. Of course no one can really be mad at Torii Hunter and Orlando Hudson because they are just to cool of guys.

The Twins left 14 men on base, including 2 situations where Delmon Young and Justin Morneau had the bases loaded with 2 outs. Again baseball statistics say base runners lead to runs. The odds of the Twins going 0 for the season with runners in scoring positions close and late is less then Jose Mijares weighting 250 pounds by September.

Speaking of Mijares, he left 2 meatball, breaking balls up in the zone for Matsui and Morales. Those two pitches were crushed. I know its the first game, but its the second year he has showed up to camp out of shape and late, and he has had "vision problems" during the spring. Not saying they are related to not giving up batting practice to the Angels, but what I am saying is it is something to pay attention to.

Tonight, Nick Blackburn will take the hill for Minnesota against Joe Saunders.
Blackburn is career 0-3 with a 5.72 ERA against the Angels
Saunders is career 3-1 with 4.10 ERA against Twins
Again its a new season, but these numbers were similar to last nights starters Scott Baker and Jered Weaver and we saw how that played out.

Keys to winning for Twins are always, throw strikes, don't walk anybody and keep the ball down in the strike zone.

2010 Season Predictions and Twins Predictions

2010-04-04T08:37:00.001-07:00

Happy Easter Twins Territory. And Happy Opening Night. We are less the 36 hours from first pitch for Twins-Angels so this is what is up. It is time to make predictions because that is what we do!

AL East: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Oriels, Toronto Blue Jays
AL West: LA Angels, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics
AL Central: Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners

AL MVP: Derek Jeter (writers feel bad that he still does not have one)
AL Cy Young: John Lester Red Sox
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz Rangers (as a starting pitcher)
Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire Twins
Comeback Player of the Year: Fausto Carmona Indians and Fransisco Liriano Twins

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, Washington Nationals, New York Mets
NL Central: St Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West: Colorado Rockies, LA Dodgers, San Fransisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves, LA Dodgers, Florida Marlins, San Fransisco Giants

NL MVP: Ryan Braun Brewers
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay Phillies (over under for Halladay wins will be set at 22)
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward Braves (edges out Stephen Strasburg Nationals)
NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox Braves (go out into the sunset)
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Manny Ramirez Dodgers (also go out into the sunset lol)

ALDS
Twins beat Red Sox 3-2
Yankees beat Angels 3-1
NLDS
Cardinals beat Braves 3-1
Phillies beat Rockies 3-2
ALCS
Yankees beat Twins 4-2, MVP CC Sabathia
NLCS
Phillies beat Cardinals 4-3, MVP Chase Utley
World Series
Phillies beat Yankees 4-2, MVP Roy Halladay

Other Twins predictions
90+ wins will be enough to win AL Central
93+ wins will be enough to not have to play New York in ALDS
Twins have just as good of team as the Red Sox or the Angels
Joe Mauer will not have a decrease in power this year 25+ home runs is a lock.
Denard Span will steal 30 bases
Delmon Young will play at least 140 games and set career highs in HR and steals
John Rauch will have at least 20 saves.
Pat Neshek will have 0 saves.
The Twins Closer of the future is not on the opening day roster
The Twins closer of the future in not on the Twins AAA team
the Twins closer of the future is on the AA team.
Brett Favre will announce he will not play for the Twins but return to the Vikings for 1 more year
Jim Thome will have at least 1 walk off home run this year
Fransisco Liriano will have an ERA under 4.00 and will make 30 starts
Twins will make a hard run at Heath Bell with trying to use one of two packages
package 1 will include Ben Revere or
package 2 will include Angel Morales
Wilson Ramos will be called up in September and will make the playoff roster
Twins will have 3 starters pitch 200 innings
Their will be 0 snow outs at Target Field until October
If Danny Valencia is called up, Alexi Casilla might be DFA
Twins minor league player of the year will be Wilson Ramos
Twins minor league pitcher of the year will be Kyle Gibson
Twins MVP will be Denard Span

If are their are any other prediction let loose.

#1 Prospect Aaron Hicks

2010-04-04T07:32:00.001-07:00

Center Field
Drafted 1st round, 14th overall in 2008, Long Beach California
Levels Played in 2009: A Beloit
Opening Day Age: 20

In a system that has a world of talent, Aaron Hicks has the most tools. As a high school star center fielder, he was also a starting pitcher that can run his fastball up to 97 miles per hour. In addition to his talents on the baseball diamond, Hicks was also a highly recruited golfer. Going into the 2008 draft most teams were split on where they wanted Aaron Hicks to play. Whether that be pitcher or the outfield, Hicks definitely has a potential to be a major league baseball player. The Twins selected him at 14 and decided to keep him in the outfield. In addition to his power arm, Hicks had what some thought was the most athleticism of any high school player in the draft not to mention the ability to switch hit.

After being drafted in 2008, Hicks was sent to the Rookie Gulf Coast League and quickly made a name for himself. He played in 45 games and in addition to playing a great center field hicks hit .318/.409/.491. Hicks showed amazing plate discipline for an 18 year old walking 28 times compared to 32 strikeouts. Hicks demonstrated raw power from both sides of the plate hitting 4 home runs, 4 triples and 10 doubles. Hicks rookie year campaign earned his a GCL All Star award as well as Baseball America rookie all star vote.

The Twins decided to start a 19 year old Hicks in extended spring training in 2009. It was expected that he would go back to rookie ball, but he was surprisingly sent to Beloit. Although Hicks did not hit for great average, he put some of his raw tools on display. During the season a Baseball Prospectus writer and a scout attended a Beloit game and only needed 20 minutes to see Hicks hit a towering home run and make a web gem play in center field to know that Hicks was the real deal. Again he showed great plate discipline walking 40 times to 55 strikeouts in 67 games. After only playing those 57 games and only hitting .251/.353/.382 Baseball America still thought that Hicks was the number 1 prospect in the Midwest League.

Going into 2010, Hicks will play over 100 games for the first time in his career. He will most likley begin the year back in Beloit with his outfield partner Angel Morales. If he plays well he will definitely earn 1, possibly 2 promotions throughout the course of the 2010 season.

Aaron Hicks has put on a little muscle since being drafted at a 6 feet 2, 170 pound high school kid. He will eventually be a guy who can hit for average from both sides of the plate. He has raw power and if it develops fully he will have the ability to hit anywhere in a major league lineup. His defense is already fantastic paired with excellent athletic ability to chase down fly balls as well as the best throwing arm in the system. Hicks raw talent is still in the process of being turned into production. When it does we are looking at a guy who is not only the top prospect in the system, but one of the top guys in all of baseball.

ETA: Late 2011 call up, early 2012
Projection: 5 tool spectacle. Gold Glove defense. Hit for average and raw power. 25+ stolen bases.
MLB Comparison: Carlos Beltran

Ranking the AL Central (Farm Systems)

2010-04-03T09:05:00.001-07:00

1) Cleveland Indians
After huge trades the past 2 years, bringing guys who will set the foundation of the future. They have a great system headed by Carlos Santana but is also 15 to 20 players deep with value. Carlos Santana was brought in the Casey Blake deal and is the best guy in the system. Micheal Brantley was part of the Sabathia deal and has a ton of potential in the OF. Nick Hagadone was acquired in the Victor Martinez trade and could be a front line starter from the left side. The Cliff Lee deal brought in Carlos Carrasco as well as Jason Knapp who could be above average to plus starters. Other guys worth noting are 3B of the future Lonnie Chisenhall and power hitting outfielder Nick Weglarz. Finally, 2009 first rounder Alex White could be a quick jump to majors as a closer or a starter. Cleveland has a bright future.

Who will make 2010 impact?
Carlos Santana will be called up at some point this year. Some speculate that the only reason why he was not going to break camp with the team was to avoid some extra arbitration dollars. But he will hit for average and power this year and will allow fans to cope with the loss of Victor Martinez.

2) Minnesota Twins
The Twins have spent some money over seas as well as the draft the past year. They brought in 3 plus prospects who are all 16 years old (Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco). The Twins are loaded with OF prospects most notably Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, Angel Morales and Joe Benson. Pitching has some guys to look at now and in the future with Kyle Gibson, David Bromberg, Carlos Gutierrez and Adrian Salcedo. The guy who might have the most potential is catcher Wilson Ramos who now blocked by Joe Mauer my be a star in the league for someone else.

Who will make 2010 impact?
Danny Valencia is the obvious choice. At 25 he has done all their is to do at the minor league level. He should do well in Minnesota, especially because he will be hitting 9th and will have little pressure to live up to (thanks Nick Punto).

3) Kansas City Royals
The Royals have had some great drafts. 2009 might be the best bringing his high ceiling catcher Will Myers who might end up being Bryce Harper before Harper gets the chance. Former 1st rounders Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have bright futures with their bats but both struggled in 2009. A team that never had pitching now has three guys who will have impact at MLB level in coming years (Mike Motgomrey, Aaron Crow and Tim Melville). The Royals have had an unfortunate situation where top 10 LHP prospect Danny Duffy just picked up and left the team for personal reasons. Duffy is 21 and participated in the futures game in 2009.

Who will make 2010 impact?
Aaron Crow is a 2 time first round pick, going 9th in 2008 to the Nationals and 12 in 2009 with Kansas City. Crow has a year of independent league ball under his belt so their is reason to believe that the right hander is on the fast track to the majors.

4) Detroit Tigers
Detroit traded a big load of players to bring in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Former top prospect Rick Porcello is a 21 year old MLB pitcher. But Austin Jackson and Scott Sizmore are going to be everyday rookies this year with high upside. Daniel Shlereth has great stuff for a back end bullpen guy. Top prospects though are the righty, lefty combo of Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby; a couple power pitchers who can project to be front of a rotation arms.

Who will make impact in 2010?
Austin Jackson is now the full time center fielder. At some point he will be looked at the bat lead off guy but for now he is going to be valued for his defense and athletic ability. If he puts it together he could be a Curtis Granderson clone.

5) Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are another aggressive team that loves to trade all their players to bring in MLB ready talent. Ken Williams gave up 5 guys to get Jake Peavy. The system is now rather weak. Top prospect Jared Mitchell is out for year with torn achilles. Tyler Flowers is expected to take over the catcher role in 2011. The best pitching prospect left is Daniel Hudson who sped to the majors last year and should compete for the 5 spot this year. John Danks younger brother Jordan has some high upside in the outfield and should start year in AAA.

Who will make 2010 impact?
Daniel Hudson flew through 5 levels in 2009 and was able to finish with a 3.38 ERA in 19 major league innings. Chicago might hold him back in 2010 and let him get his feet wet in AAA but when he is called up he could put the icing on the cake for what could be the best rotation in baseball.

Top Prospects in AL Central
1) Carlos Santana, Catcher, Cleveland ETA 2010
2) Aaron Hicks, Outfield, Minnesota ETA 2012
3) Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit ETA 2012
4) Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Cleveland ETA 2010
5) Mike Motgomrey LHP, Kansas City ETA 2011
6) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota ETA 2011
7) Aaron Crow, RHP Kansas City ETA 2010
8) Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit ETA 2011
9) Miguel Sano, SS Minnesota ETA 2013
10)Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota ETA 2010
11)Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit ETA 2010
12)Daniel Hudson, RHP, Chicago ETA 2010
13)Micheal Brantley, OF, Cleveland ETA 2010
14)Ben Revere, OF, Minnesota ETA 2011
15)Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland ETA 2011

#2 Prospect Kyle Gibson

2010-04-02T08:10:00.000-07:00

Starting RHP
Drafted 1st round (22nd overall) 2009, University of Missouri
Levels Played in 2009: Not available
Opening Day Age: 22

Kyle Gibson was third in line of number 1 starters taken from Mizzou,(Max Scherzer and Aaron Crow in the previous years.) Gibson may now have the overpowering fastball as Scherzer or Crow but he has front line mentality and is a strike thrower. He goes right after hitters and takes control over situations. Going into the 2009 draft Gibson was seen as the second best college pitcher (Stephen Strasburg was 1) and 4th overall prospect among draft prospects. An undefined arm injury hindered him down the stretch and most scouts thought that be big right hander would need Tommy John surgery. Luckily their was no damage in the elbow however Gibson had a stress fracture in his forearm. The problem was corrected in the off season and the Twins feel they go a steal at pick 22.

Gibson was still in his rehab stage after being drafted, so he did not pitch for a Twins organization in 2009. However his numbers at Missouri are something to look at. His freshman year, he was used primarily as a reliever. As a sophomore, he finished the year with a 9-4 record in 86 innings as a starter. He also had 96 strikeouts and a 3.84 ERA. In 2009, Gibson was the number 1 starter for the Tigers and dominated the Big 12. He finished 11-3 with a 3.21 ERA in 106 innings. He also showed impeccable control with 131 strikeouts and only 19 walks.

Gibson has also played for Team USA in the World Cup. He threw 17 innings and allowed on 2 earned runs. He struck out 25 batters to only 4 basses on balls. He knows what it takes to succeed. Going into his junior year he put on 30 pounds to be able to take on the work load of the front line pitcher at Missouri.

Gibson may not have the stuff of a Justin Verlander, but it is still very good. What scouts were seeing at the end of 2009 was an injured pitcher throwing threw pain and still getting by. Even though his fastball was topping out at 86, he was still pretty effective. When healthy Kyle Gibson works with a low 90 to 92 MPH 2 seem fastball that has a ton of movement and sink, a 4 seem fastball that he can run 93-94 MPH, a plus, plus slider that Baseball America ranks as the best in the system as well as a developing change up that could be a plus pitch. What the Twins love most about Gibson is his incredible control. In 2009 his K/9 rate was 11.1 and his BB/9 was 1.6.

In a short term since being with the Twins, Gibson has already shown signs that he will be put on the fast track. He showed in instructional league during the winter that he was fully healthy and gained most of his velocity back. In spring training he was overwhelming hitters with the incredible moment on his pitches. In a inter squad game, Jason Kubel went up to Ron Gardenhire and said he no longer wanted to hit against Gibson because he was getting "carved up".

Gibson has a very projectable frame, he is 6 feet 6 and 210 pounds. His mechanics have drawn mixed reviews. Some scouts believe that he has good mechanics and others believe that he does not put enough leg power behind his pitches which may have caused the arm injury. He fits the mold of a Twins pitchers. He pounds the strike zone, does not walk hitters and keeps the ball in the ballpark. Kyle Gibson will begin the year in A+ Fort Myers, but could be on the fast track. His time in the minors could resemble former top draft picks Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza. I expect him to compete for the 5th spot in the rotation in 2011 if the Twins decide to not bring back Carl Pavano. If he excels at the rate he has in the past we are talking about a guy who could start opening day in 2012 or 2013.

ETA: 2011
Projection: Not a true ace in terms of stuff, but could be the number 1 starter in Minnesota by the time he is 25 years old.
MLB Comparison: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Scott Baker, John Lackey.

Ranking the AL Central (Bullpen)

2010-04-02T08:05:00.001-07:00

1) Chicago White Sox
The Sox have three good guys in the back end. Bobby Jenks has lost a ton of weight and quit drinking. Might be able to pull out a few more 2 inning saves. Matt Thorton is their big lefty with the power breaking pitches. If JJ Putz can be healthy, he can close. Being the 8th inning guy throwing mid to upper 90's will help Chicago.

2) Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have power power arms all across the board. Their new closer Jose Valverde is an upgrade from Fernando Rodney. If Joel Zumaya if healthy (unlikely) can still throw over 100 MPH. Ryan Perry is another power arm. Phil Coke is their new lefty. Bobby Seay is a huge loss for them. I still like the Tigers pen overall.

3) Minnesota Twins
How much does Joe Nathan mean to the Twins. If he were here the Twins would have the best bullpen in the division no question. Pat Nasty Neshek will bounce back from 2 years of recovery. Jesse Crain's second half of 2009 is what he is really capable of. Jose Mijares has a ton of talent from left side but does he have the mental aspect to get out of Gardenhire's dog house. My pick for who should close is John Rauch. He has done it before and is the best internal option. Matt Gurrier was great last year but is not as good as his stats indicate in 2009.

4) Cleveland Indians
Kerry Wood is out the first 2 months. It hurts the Tribe more then just in the bullpen. It makes him less valuable in a deadline trade. Chris Perez, Jensen Lewis and Rafeal Perez all have a lot of talent but got roughed up and were set back in 2009. Location issues are the main component to the Indians success. Joe Smith and Tony Sipp might both be guys to take big steps forward in 2010.

5) Kansas City Royals
The best reliever in the division is Joakim Soria. But getting to him is rather difficult. Again I say that the Royals screwed up trading Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs. Kyle Farsnworth can throw upper 90's but it goes straight. Robinson Tejada is very solid and should be Soria's setup man if he does not start. Juan Cruz was great in 2007 and 2008 but got shelled in 2009. He should be able to get back to form.

Top Relievers in Division

1) Joakim Soria (CL)KC
2) Bobby Jenks (CL)CHW
3) Jose Valverde (CL) DET
4) Kerry Wood (CL)CLE
5) JJ Putz CHW
6) Pat Neskek MIN
7) Matt Thorton CHW
8) Jose Mijares MIN
9) Matt Gurrier MIN
10)Ryan Perry DET

Ranking the AL Central (Defense)

2010-04-01T09:05:00.000-07:00

1) Minnesota Twins
They still play the game the right way. Ron Gardenhire is one of the few managers in baseball that still makes his team take in field everyday. The Twins added 2 great defensive guys in JJ Hardy and 4 time Gold Glover Orlando Hudson up the middle. Third base will be solid with the Punto/Harris platoon. Denard Span is a better CF then people give him credit for. Delmon Young has gained back some speed after losing 30 pounds. And oh yeah. Joe Mauer is the best all around catcher in the game.

Player to Watch: Jason Kubel might see some more of the outfield this year with the departure of Carlos Gomez. He has never been able to move well in the past, but he has made it a point that he does not want to be a full time DH.

2)Detroit Tigers
The infield is very solid even with the loss of Placido Polanco. Brandon Inge is a great 3rd baseman and Adam Everett has always had a great glove (except in Minnesota). Scott Sizemore has a big challenge infront of him and Miguel Cabrera was still above average at 1st base saving 3 runs in 2009. Maglio Ordonez can cover the ground he once could. Johnny Damon can cover ground but will he be able to get the ball back to the infield in Comerca Park. Austin Jackson is arguably the best athlete on the team and should be able to bail his outfield mates out a lot of jams. Gerald Laird is usually in there to play defense because his .225 batting average is not worth keeping.

Player to Watch: Austin Jackson is a fantastic athlete. He will cover a lot of ground and make all the same plays Curtis Granderson used to.

3) Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have jumped on the approach of pitching and playing defense. Juan Pierre, and Alex Rios will cover a lot of ground in the outfield. Mark Teahen's natural position is 3rd. Not many guys can call a better game then AJ Pierzynski. Gordon Beckham's natural position is shortstop. After playing 2009 at 3rd, he will play 2010 at 2nd.

Player to Watch: Juan Peirre is going to hit lead off but more importantly he is going to move Carlos Quinton over to RF out of the way from fly balls. Peirre improves the Sox defense instantly.

4) Cleveland Indians
The Tribe has some great athletes at the major league level. Grady Sizmore is just fun to watch when healthy. Johnny Peralta is a natural short stop but plays a pretty good 3rd base. I am a huge Asdrubal Cabrera fan. If the Indians decide to go with Michael Brantley instead of Matt Laporta in left, they will be above average in the outfield. Opening Day catcher Lou Marson is a good game caller behind the plate and has solid throwing arm. If and when Carlos Santana is called up, he will be able to gun down a lot of base stealers.

Player to Watch: Grady Sizeore if healthy is gold glove caliber. He has had shoulder injuries the past couple years. If he can play everyday he has 2 plus defensive tools.

5) Kansas City Royals
I like the Royals outfield. Rick Ankiel, David DeJesus and Scott Posednick are all veterans who go all out. I hate the Royals infield. Yuni Betancourt is 11 runs worse the an average short stop. Alex Gordon is projection that will never pan out. Chris Getz does have a better glove then Alberto Callapso but hit bat should not be in over Callapso. Jason Kendall began to lose some of his defensive prowless in 2009 but can still cal a decent game. It is hard to hide Billy Butler at first base. He really should be a DH.

Player to Watch: Rick Ankeil is has made some great catches in his career. He is a very good athlete and still has a cannon in what was a former pitching arm.

All Defense Team in the AL Central

Catcher: Joe Mauer MIN
First Base: Justin Morneau MIN
Second Base: Orlando Hudson: MIN
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera CLE
Third Base: Brandon Inge DET
Three Outfielders: Grady Sizemore CLE, Denard Span MIN, Austin Jackson DET

#3 Prospect Miguel Angel Sano

2010-04-01T07:30:00.000-07:00

Shortstop, 3rd Base
Signed as International Free Agent in 2009, Dominican Republic
Levels Played in 2009: Not Available
Opening Day Age: 16 (Turns 17 on May 11th)

The Minnesota Twins had a fantastic off season. They made some great signings with Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson, they traded for all start short stop JJ Hardy, they extended Nick Blackburn and Denard Span and they were able to give the 4th largest contract in MLB history to all world catcher Joe Mauer. But the move that might be overlooked for the next couple years was the $3.15 million dollars dished out to a 16 year old boy in the Dominican Republic. The signing of Miguel Angel Sano will pay dividends off for the Twins for years to come.

Sano was looked at as the best international prospect to ever come out. He was given the largest signing bonus for a international position player ($3.15m). Only Michael Ynoa received a larger bonus overall in 2008 from the Oakland Athletics. The Twins were in what was a 3 team race to get Sano last year. The other suitors for Sano were the Baltimore Oriels and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sano was said to be looking for a bonus somewhere in the $3.5 million dollar range. Early on, although Minnesota said they were really interested it seemed unlikely that the Twins would be willing to dish out that kind of money to a kid would probably be a sophomore in high school if he lives in the states.

The process was prolonged when MLB had to run a background check on Sano to prove he was really 16. For months it seemed like the Pirates were the front runner to get Sano as they kept in contact with him and his family on a weekly basis. Surprisingly, Sano went behind the Pirates back and chose Minnesota out of the blue. The $3.15 million dollar signing bonus was the second largest given out in Twins history only to Joe Mauer's number 1 overall draft pick bonus in 2001. That just puts in perspective how good the Twins think this kid can be. After that the Twins requested that a physical be taken, a bone graphs to validate Sano's age. Everything panned out. He was given a work visa and is now currently in Twins spring training camp.

Sano is a special talent. At 16 he is huge standing at 6 foot 3 and weighing a lean 200 pounds. He has never trained a day in his life and already holds great power. A scout said that Sano has thunder in his forearms. He has a very smooth swing from the right side and surprising plate discipline for again at 16 year old. Sano's determination to be great is already prevalent. He claims he wants to get to the major leagues in 2 years. By that time he would probably be 19. The Twins may move Sano slow early on. Because the Twins have not developed too many of their own international guys of this caliber it is somewhat of a unique situation. The closest scenario was Wilson Ramos who is going into his 6th season with the organization.

Sano has a very bright future. He is expected to begin his career in the rookie GCL sometime this summer rather then going back to the Dominican to play in the DSL academy. Sano in a very short stint in spring training has already looked impressive. At his size and age he will probably grow out of his current position short stop. Expect Sano to play 3rd in the next couple years. Sano will push to get to the majors as fast as possible. I fully expect him to make his debut before his 21st birthday.

ETA: 2013
Projection: All Star, MVP, Hall of Fame. Am I getting ahead of myself?
MLB Comparison: Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria

Ranking the AL Central (Starting Rotation)

2010-03-31T09:46:00.001-07:00

1)Chicago White Sox
Before Chicago had a great collection of young up and comers and veterans. Add a true ace and former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy to the mix and you have one of the 5 best rotations in MLB. Peavy showed a glimpse of what he is capable dominating the Tigers twice to close out 2009. Mark Buerhle threw a perfect game last year and is one of the most under rated left handers in the game. Jake Peavy said that Gavid Floyd has potential to be a special pitcher. If John Danks can master the strike zone he can look as good as he did in 2008 Game 163. Toss up for the 5th spot between the veteran Freddy Garcia and rookie Daniel Hudson. Ozzie might go with the experience to start the season.

Player to Watch: Jake Peavy was a Cy Young 2 years ago. He still has ace stuff that can go head to head with any pitcher in all of baseball.

2) Detroit Tigers
Detroit is filled with young POWER arms. Average fastball for the projected starting 5 could be over 93 MPH. The Tigers inked up ace Justin Verlander for 5 more years and was contending for the Cy Young in 2009. His huge strikeout numbers shall continue. 21 year old Rick Porcello stepped up in game 163 in 2009, showing he does have strikeout pitches and will have the leash loosened this year as he steps into that number 2 role. Mad Max Scherzer was part of the Edwin Jackson trade but has very very electric stuff. The 4 spot will be given to Jeremy Bonderman. He has shown more velocity and health this off season so hopes are high as of now. And Dontrelle Willis is trying to overcome a load of issues. He may not be their for long as Armando Galarraga wants to be back in the starting role.

Player to Watch: Rick Porcello will have more weight on his shoulders then he did last year. He proved he can get outs with his plus sinker. Now he is going to have to show he can dominate with question marks in the 4 and 5 holes of the rotation.

3) Minnesota Twins
The strike throwing crop of guys the Twins put together every year has kept them beyond competitive. Opening Day starter Scott Baker was not as bad as he was in 2009 but not as good as he was in 2008. Expect his ERA to still be in high 3's. Nick Blackburn had identical years 2008 and 2009 and that earned him a 4 year deal. He should lead the team in innings again. Carl Pavano is the veteran who came up big down the stretch. He will not be great but his high BABIP in 2009 shows that his ERA should be in the low 4's not over 5 like it was. Kevin Slowey now has 2 screws in his wrist but still has arguably the best control of any pitcher in baseball. If he repeats what he did in 2008 then it just adds to the Twins depth. Fransisco Liriano has been named to the 5th spot but after dominating winter ball and showing flashes of brilliance in spring training; the Liriano of old may be back.

Player to Watch: Fransisco Liriano may never be able to repeat 2006. But from what we have seen so far this spring (20 innings, 2.70 ERA, 30K and 5BB), if he is something in between 2006 and 2008, that is not a number 5 guy. That is a top of the rotation starter.

4) Kansas City Royals
The best pitcher in the game may not be enough. Zack Grienke put it all together last year and won the Cy Young on the worst team in the AL. Gil Meche is still a solid number 2 guy. Luke Hochevar, Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies, Ruben Tejada and even Kyle Farnsworth are all fighting for the last three spots. And yes, I said Kyle Farnsworth. All of the three will do little this year and just keep the spots warm for the evenual 2011 and 2012 rotation guys, Mike Motgomrey and Aaron Crow. Here is an idea that the Royals should have embraced 2 years ago. Keep Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez, covert one of them into a closer and move Jokaim Soria to the rotation. He has 4 plus pitches and could have been great along side Grienke.

Player to Watch: Former number 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar has never been solid. But he had some starts in 2009 that still make people think he can be a full time starter.

5) Cleveland Indians
After trading Cy Young winners CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee and extending mysteries Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, you can see why Cleveland is where they are. Optimism points to Westbrook and Carmona who have had really good springs and possibly returning to form. Carmona can be great when he is on. Justin Masterson was one of the centerpieces in the Victor Martinez trade. The big bodied sinker baller may end up being better suited for the bullpen and eventually the Indians closer. Their are 3 guys fighting for 2 spots with David Huff, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Talbot. Huff is a decent guy and Carrasco has been really good in the minors. But they both have a lot of work to do to be effective in the majors.

Player to Watch: The reason why Cleveland extended Fausto Carmona was because they knew they could not keep CC Sabathia. Carmona in 2007 was fantastic. Extending him then looked genius at the time as he is still under team control for possibly 4 more years. He is having a dominant spring with a 0.45 ERA in 20 innings and only 2 walks. If he keeps it up his sinker is one of the best in the game.

Top 10 Pitchers in Division
1) Zach Grienke KC
2) Justin Verlander DET
3) Jake Peavy DET
4) Mark Buehrle CHW
5) Scott Baker MIN
6) Rick Porcello DET
7) Max Scherzer DET
8) Jake Westbrook CLE
9) Kevin Slowey MIN
10)Gavin Floyd CHW

Prospect #4 Wilson Ramos

2010-03-31T06:46:00.000-07:00

Catcher
Signed as International Free Agent in 2004, Venezuela
Levels Played in 2009: AA New Britain
Opening Day Age: 22

Wilson Ramos is a premium prospect. As one of those type of players that was plucked from South America at the age of 16, his development has been slow. But it has developed into a high caliber major league catcher. Ramos has all the tools to be successful and do even more.

The past three years, Wilson Ramos has moved quickly through low A ball all the way to AA and gave Drew Butera a run to make the major league roster this spring. Hampered by injuries, Ramos only played 54 games in AA New Britain. And playing only 54 games, some scouts still have Ramos rated as high as number 2 in the organization and top 40 in all of Major League Baseball. Ramos hit .317/.341/.454 in New Britain. At the age of 20 in 2008 he hit 13 home runs and drove in 78 in 126 games in a very tough Florida State League. Remember we are talking about a catcher here.

To get games in, Ramos headed back home to participate in the Venezuelan and Caribbean World Series this winter. Ramos raked up the league hitting .332/.397/.582. In 54 games he hit 12 home runs and drove in 54. To put in perspective if you translate to a full season we are talking about a 30+ home run guy.

Speaking of catching, Ramos is a plus defender. He threw out 42% of base runners in 2009. From behind the plate, he can save anywhere from 4 to 9 runs per season. He has some kinks to work out, when it comes to calling games. In spring training Ron Gardenhire pointed out that Ramos likes to call too many breaking balls. It happened on 2 occasions with Fransisco Liriano and Joe Nathan calling to many sliders to get strikeouts. Gardenhire told Ramos that this is strike throwing club. It is more important to locate a fastball and put the ball in play then go for the strikeout.

Offensivley Ramos is special. He has light tower power and again we are talking about a catcher here. He only had 30 at bats this spring but he made the most of them hitting .400 with and OPS of 1.133. He hit 2 monster home runs including one of former Twin Johan Santana. In the long run he will be able to hit for great power, and hit .280-.300 yearly. The only issue with his bat is his walk rate. In 5 years at the minors Ramos only has a league average OBP of .338. His strikeout to walk rate is more then 2 to 1. A lot of Twins scouts have gone out and said that this is not to much of a concern because the rest of his game is that good, but at some point getting on base is more important then making hard contact.

Ramos will begin the year in AAA Rochester after being sent down this morning. He will not be there for long as he is going into his 3rd year on the 40 man roster. I expect him to be a September call up and challenge to make the playoff roster as Mauer's backup and a huge right handed hitter of the bench.

In the long run it has been spoken of that Ramos was going to be insurance for Joe Mauer. I am not sure if everyone has heard but Joe did sign a contract extension that will keep him in a Twins uniform for the next 9 years (2018). So unless Wilson plans on changing positions, their is no room for him on the Twins. Which means......trade chip! I personally don't think the Twins should trade him this year unless a unique situation comes up. And when I say unique, I mean a front line starting pitcher who is better then all 5 of the guys the Twins currently have. I think Ramos is too good to be traded for a closer, especially with the crop of outfielders the Twins can use for a trade like that. Again this is a good situation to have. The Twins have a great team and one of the best farms systems they have had in the decade. Ramos will get his at bats in Rochester and do very well. I also want to state that Minnesota should not sit on Ramos for too long. The last team that had a catcher surplus was Texas with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. The Rangers did not trade any of them, they all lost some value and now are stuck.

ETA: September 2010
Projection: Power hitting catcher (25-30HR) with very good defense.
MLB Comparison: Behind the plate he will resemble any of the Molina brothers (Yadier, Jose, and Benjie). His bat will be Geovanny Soto.

Prospect #5 Ben Revere

2010-03-30T08:39:00.001-07:00

Center Field, Left Field, Right Field
Drafted 1st round, 2007 (28th overall) Lexington, Kentucky
Levels Played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers
Opening Day Age: 21 (Turns 22 on May 3rd)

Ben Revere is the Percy Harvin of the Twins organization. Every time he plays, something dynamic and exciting is bound to happen. Ben Revere was a questionable pick by the Twins in 2007. The Gatorade player of the year in Kentucky was projected to go somewhere in the 3rd or 4th round, but the Twins surprised the baseball world by selecting the speedy outfielder at the end of round 1, one pick after Tigers selected pitcher Rick Porcello. To put in perspective of the 2 picks, Porcello signed for a then record bonus for Detroit ($3.5 million), the Twins got Revere for a well below slot value of $750,000 (second lowest in MLB for the decade). It makes me wonder if Porcello where to have dropped to Minnesota at 28, would they have still taken Revere?

When Revere was drafted, he was looked at by scouts by a prototypical lead off hitter who would steal a ton of bases. In a short career Revere has been much more then that. He was seen to have a below average bat, and was pull happy. In 3 years Revere has hit .337, including a .379/.433/.497 stint in the Midwest League that earned him the league MVP as a 20 year old. Revere has been an All Star at all 3 levels, GCL, Midwest League, Florida State League that is in addition to his 2 Twins organizational player of the year awards. He shows his bat can be MLB ready sooner rather then later. He has stolen 110 bases in his 3 short years. He stole 21 bags in 50 games at rookie ball, 44 steals in 83 games in the Midwest League, and 45 steals in 121 games in the Florida State League. The final stat that jumps out is his K to BB ratio. As of yet Revere has not been over powered. In 2007 he struck out 20 times to 13 walks. 2008 he struck out 31 times to 27 walks, and last year he struck out 34 times to 40 walks. His patience is better then scouts give him credit for.

Revere is undersized. He stands 5 feet 9, 175 pounds. Just to put in perspective he is the same size as Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox (2008 AL MVP). Revere has 3 plus, plus tools. He can hit for very good average, he can cover a ton of ground in the outfield and he is lightning quick on the base paths. His other 2 tools come out to well below average.

Revere has no power to speak of as of yet. He can leg out doubles and triples however in 254 minor league games he has only 3 home runs. Not to say that this is a bad thing. He is batting lead off. Most teams, including the Twins could care less how many home runs their lead off guys hit. The whole object of a lead off hitter is to get on base and disrupt the pitcher for the rest of the order. The plus side to that is some scouts say that Revere does have some power and could possibly develop into a 10 to 12 HR guy in the future. I personally think that is a stretch but if he does it makes him a very special player. His other below average tool is his throwing arm. When drafted, Revere had a very bad arm. He has worked on that over the past 2 off seasons and may be up to average by now. Their were thoughts saying that Revere should be the Twins right fielder in 2011 and trade Michael Cuddyer. I simply just do not agree with that. Right field is a position to hide a guy who can not cover a lot of ground, but has a very strong arm. Revere is the complete opposite of that. He needs to be in center long term so that his speed can be displayed in all parts of the game.

Moving forward, Revere is a very liked player among the Twins staff and fans. He was kept in big league camp up until last week. Ron Gardenhire expressed greatly how much he enjoyed having Revere around. Revere is not currently on the 40 man roster and will begin the year in AA New Britain. But do not be surprised if some strings are pulled and he is up in September. Unlike other organizations, Minnesota does not reach deep into the system for players but it has happened on 3 occasions with Brad Radke, Joe Mauer and Jose Mijares. Revere's bat and speed definitely have value at the Major League level and because the Twins do not have Carlos Gomez any more, Revere might be a guy who could be put on a playoff roster to back up Denard Span or to be a pinch runner for Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel.

Of course long term their are questions with Revere. Denard Span is now locked up for the next 5 years, Micheal Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are not a free agents until after 2011 and Delmon Young is still only 24 years old. Their are also a lot of left handed hitters at the top of the order with Span, Mauer, Morneau and Kubel. May be difficult to start off a game with 4 or 5 lefties in a row. From the looks of it Revere may be blocked. Their are also rumors of him being a trade chip to bring in a Joe Nathan replacement. For the time being it is too early to discuss any of this. Revere still does not turn 22 for another month. Let the kid play and worry about the rest later.

ETA: Do not be surprised if it's in September. Long term though he will be up in 2011.
Projection: Great lead off hitter. Hit well over .300 with 50+ steals and 100+ runs scored.
MLB Comparison: The Kirby Puckett comps are like 1 in 10,000. He is also a lot better then Juan Pierre. His offensive ability is similar to Chone Figgins. He defense is that of Kenny Loften (with less throwing arm). If he develops some power like some scouts believe (8-12 HR) he could be Jacoby Ellsbury.

Ranking the AL Central (Lineup)

2010-03-29T16:45:00.000-07:00

1.) Minnesota Twins
On paper the Twins have the best line up they have ever had. In addition to the 2 MVP award winners hitting 3-4 (Mauer and Morneau), the Twins have a great collection of hitters. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer can mash with the best of them after combining for 60 home runs in 2009. Denard Span is already one of the best lead off hitter in the division and he has potential to only get better. Orlando Hudson has experience and switch hitting ability will be able to get on base and move runners along for the M&M boys. The wild cards are hitting 7 and 8. If Delmon Young and JJ Hardy are right, the Twins could not only be the best in the division, but one of the best in the American League.

Player to Watch: Danny Valencia might be called up mid season. The only thing he would be asked to do is turn over the lineup batting 9th. Valencia has solid power and can be very valuable for an already dynamic line up.

2.) Cleveland Indians
I may be making a stretch, but if Cleveland is going to show any signs of life this year, they will have to mash. They have moved their best player Grady Sizemore, from lead off to the 2 hole. Personally I think he should be batting 3rd. Asdrubal Cabrera now hitting lead off is one of the most under rated players in all of baseball. Shin Soo Choo is an all star and Johnny Peralta can be great when hes right. Big question mark are injuries. Right now history has gone against what could be their 4, 5, 6 guys in Travis Hafner, Russel Braynon and Matt LaPorta. These three have potential to combine for 75 to 80 home runs, but again I am being very optimistic.

Player to Watch: Carlos Santana is one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. His bat is major league ready; Cleveland is just waiting to put all his catching tools together. He should be called up sometime in May and his switch hitting ability resembles former Indians star Victor Martinez to a tee.

3.) Detroit Tigers
The Tigers really did not lose as much as people believe. They still have one of the 5 best players in all of baseball in Miguel Cabrera who has reported in better shape and has quit drinking. This may be the year where he lives up to PECOTA's projections of 40 home runs and 140 RBI. After trades and free agency, Detroit lost Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco but they will be replacing those bats with Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson at the top of the order. Jackson has had a great spring and Damon is a lot more consistent at the plate then Granderson. Question marks will still be is how long can Adam Everett survive not hitting and will Brandon Inge produce the same way he did in the first half of 2009? Also how will Carlos Guillen react to being a permanent DH this year and Scott Sizemore do being an everyday player.

Player to Watch: Their was a lot of feuding going along with the Tigers and Maglio Ordonez on whether he would hit his incentives that paid him $18 million dollars. Maglio did hit that mark and now that it is in the past; he could get back to the level he played in 2007 where he was MVP caliber.

4.) Chicago White Sox
The South Siders may be taking the Twins old approach to hitting this year. They have replaced some of their base cloggers like Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye with guys like Juan Pierre and Alex Rios. Gordon Beckham may be as good as it gets this year at 2nd base. If Konerko and Carlos Quinton are healthy they can provide the power. However the White Sox do have more question marks then guarantees. How much longer can Alexi Ramirez last with out walking. Adruw Jones looks to be on the downward tilt of his career. He tried to bounce back from the collapse he was experiencing the last 2 years but its a long shot he returns to a productive form. Juan Pierre moving to the AL scares me. Mark Teahen was never able to be a full time player on the Royals. How can you expect him to just be good. And how much longer will it be before someone really tries to kill AJ Pierzynski.

Player to Watch: Gordon Beckham may be no surprise but moving him to 2B makes his bat that much more valuable. Let the Chase Utley comparisons begin.

5.)Kansas City Royals
The Royals last year traded really good pitchers for 1 year of really bad bats. They turned Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez into Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp and now they have none of the 4 players going into 2010. Just validating why the Royals suck. Outside of Billy Butler, their is not one keeper among this group. The next guy is Alberto Callapso, but because of his sketchy defense, he is in a position battle with Chris Getz. It may be time to give up on Alex Gordon after experiencing another injury this spring. Yuni Betancourt may be the only player in baseball that nobody wants. Jose Guillen does not want to be there. Posednick, Ankiel, and DeJesus are all out there for their defense. Ankiel would be lucky to repeat what he did in 2008 by hitting 25 home runs. Safe to say that last place should be locked up for Kansas City.

Player to Watch: 2012 may be the day to look forward to as a Royals fan. If former top draft picks, (3B) Mike Moustakas, (1B) Eric Hosmer and (C) Will Myers all pan out they could have a nice young lineup. But again, that is in 2012.

10 Best Players in AL Central
1) Joe Mauer MIN
2) Miguel Cabrera DET
3) Grady Sizemore CLE
4) Justin Morneau MIN
5) Billy Butler KC
6) Gordon Beckham CHW
7) Denard Span MIN
8) Johnny Damon DET
9) Shin Soo Choo CLE
10) Jason Kubel MIN

Prospect #6 Danny Valencia

2010-03-29T10:55:00.000-07:00

3rd Base
Drafted 2006, 19th round University of Miami
Levels Played in 2009: AA New Britain, AAA Rochester
Opening Day Age: 25

When evaluating an organization's player development, you have to look further then what a team does in the first round. When looking at the Twins major league club, you should expect guys like Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer to be good baseball players (1st rounders). But it is what the team does after that is where a really good major league franchise can be built from within. Danny Valencia is an excellent example of this. A guy who was selected late in the 2006 draft and has played very well at every level, now on the brink of making his major league debut.

Of course third base has been a hole for the Twins since Corey Koskie left 6 years ago. Valencia has been a player, Twins fans have kept an eye for 3 years now. In 5 levels Valencia has hit .299/.354/.480. 2009, Valencia got off to a good start in New Britain playing in 57 games and had a .373 OBP. He hit 14 doubles and 7 home runs which earned a promotion in AAA. What seems to happen to Valencia is as he has been promoted each year, he gets a little swing happy. His isolated discipline was 0.055 in Rochester. With each promotion to a new team, Valencia will hit the ball hard, have a little success and forget what got him there. For him to be successful in the future, consistency at the plate and in the field is going to be necessary.

Danny Valencia does not possess one plus tool. However, he does not do anything poorly either. He has good patience at the plate and possesses some above average power. His swing will generate a lot of doubles and possibly 20+ home runs. His defense is average. He does not have better lateral movement then the current Twins platoon of Nick Punto and Brendan Harris, but he does have a better arm then both of them. However it is the potential with the bat that will get him to play every day in Minnesota. Twins fans need to remember, although Valencia is already 25, he still has some parts of his game to work on.

If and when he gets to the majors there will be little pressure put on him. In this lineup he is going to be hitting 9th. He is playing with 2 very good defensive infielders in JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson. Maturity and humility will be keys for him to get to Minnesota sooner rather then later. A Baseball America scout referred to him as brash and cocky. That will not float with Ron Gardenhire. Luckily the Twins have a great clubhouse filled with guys who should keep Valencia in the right mind.

ETA: Sometime around the All Star Break this year.
Projection: Everyday 3rd baseman, who can hit .270-.290 with some pretty good power. Defense will be average at best.
MLB Comparison: Garrett Atkins and Aaron Boone.

Prospect #7 David Bromberg

2010-03-29T07:59:00.000-07:00

Starting RHP
Drafted : 32nd Round 2005 from Santa Anna College, California
Levels Played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers
Opening Day Age: 22

I still do not know whether to think that David Bromberg is an over rated or under rated prospect. The big right hander has definitely had enough success at the professional level to think that he should be raising a few more eyebrows then just the ones in Minnesota but that has been the case so far.

Why is David Bromberg under rated? Well as you can see above David Bromberg was selected as a draft and follow with the 975th pick overall! And in addition to that he was inked up for just $40,000 dollars. It is already a win-win deal for the Twins because they have already gotten every penny out of Bromberg in his short career. In 4 years at 4 levels Bromberg has been great. He has held 3 league strikeout titles in the Appalachian League, Midwest League and Florida State League. He was an All Star in those three leagues as well. He was named pitcher of the year in the Appalachian League as a 19 year old and also in the Florida State League as a 21 year old. In 2009 the Twins named him the organization's Minor League pitcher of the year. In 4 years Bromberg has been a horse pitching a total of 412 innings with a 3.34 ERA. Bromberg has a very respectable career BAA of .237 as well as 437 strikeouts (9.55 K/9). From looking at that, what is their not to like.

Why is David Bromberg over rated? Scouts are definitely smarter then we give them credit for. Bromberg has never appeared on any top 100 prospect list to my knowledge. With all of Bromberg's success he still has shown some struggles. Bromberg does have an issue to not be able to repeat his delivery which gives him high walk totals at times. His command is shaky at times which gives him the following walk totals over the past 4 years; 2006 (3.9 BB/9) 2007 (4.96 BB/9) 2008 (3.24 BB/9) 2009 (3.70 BB/9). Although Bromberg has been the number 1 starter at every level he has been at, most scouts still consider him a back of the rotation guy. This is due to he does not have 1 true plus pitch.

I personally think a little more highly of David Bromberg then others do. The best part of it is that he can improve. Right now Bromberg is 6 feet 5 and 241 pounds. He throws 2 different fastballs, a 2 seamer that is 90 to 92 MPH with good movement and a 4 seam that he can run 94 to 95. He also has an at times plus curve ball. But because he sometimes has trouble repeating his delivery is appears to slurve at times. He also has a show me change up to keep batters off pace. Bromberg is a big kid, but not a great athlete. Moving forward he will have to get in better shape to repeat his delivery and last for 200 innings. He is close to that now, after back to back seasons of 150+ innings. Bromberg will begin 2010 as either the number 1 or 2 starter for AA New Britain. With another great year he could possibly compete for the opening day rotation in 2011.

ETA: I personally think he and Kyle Gibson will compete for the 5 spot in 2011.
Projection: Bulldog in the middle of the rotation.
MLB Comparison: Kevin Millwood

Prospect #8 Carlos Gutierrez

2010-03-27T07:43:00.001-07:00

Starting and Reliever RHP
Drafted 2008, 1st round (27th overall), University of Miami
Levels Played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers and AA New Britain
Opening Day Age: 23

Carlos Gutierrez was the second of 2 first round picks for the Twins in 2008 (Aaron Hicks). At the University of Miami he was a closer after Tommy John surgery ended his bid as a starter Freshman Year. The Twins selected Gutierrez not only for his sign-ability but for also his incredible ground ball rate. After signing Gutierrez was quickly sent to Fort Myers to work out of the bullpen and did quite well. In 26 innings pitched he had a 2.10 ERA.

Gutierrez began the 2009 season as a member of team Puerto Rico for the World Baseball Classic. He worked 1 scoreless inning of relief before reporting to the Twins for spring training. As the season began the Twins decided to move forward with their project and converting the tall righty back to being a starter. The Twins felt that his big body and plus sinker would be good enough to for a starters role (ex. Nick Blackburn). The season started out great for Gutierrez as he over powered hitters with his fastball sinker combination. He maintained a ground ball rate over 70% the entire year. In 55 innings pitched he had a .192 BAA, 1.32 ERA and only 1 home run given up. At the midway point of the season Baseball America ranked him as the 14th best prospect to come out of the 2008 draft. If their were 2 things to complain about it was his walk total. His sinker had so much movement that he walked 22 batters compared to 33 strikeouts in those 55 innings. The other stat to recogonize was that although he had a low ERA Gutierrez gave up a lot of unearned runs. 20 runs given up. Only 8 were earned.

Either way Gutierrez was still having a great year and did earn his promotion to AA New Britain. In a career filled with short outings, fatigue began to catch up to Carlos. He started to get knocked around, and was not able to locate his fastball. In AA he finished with a 6.19 ERA and gave up 6 home runs in 52 innings. Towards the end of the season the Twins recognized the fatigue and moved him back to the bullpen. In total Gutierrez pitched 107 innings with a very respectable 3.70 ERA. Low points were his low K numbers 65 and his high walk total 46.

Moving forward the Twins still have options with Gutierrez. It still seems likely that Minnesota will continue with the experiment of moving him to a starter. If he does not show stamina at the end of the year the Twins may just entertain the idea of making his the closer of the future. It is not that Gutierrez does not have stuff because he does. Gutierrez works with a power fastball in the 92 to 94 MPH range in addition to his power sinker. Baseball America says he has the best fastball in the system. As a reliever he could be able to gain more velocity. When Joe Mauer began his rehab stint in Fort Myers last year he mentioned that Gutierrez had the best sinker he has ever caught. At 6 foot 3 and 205 pounds he has the body to be either a starter or reliever. He will start the 2010 season in the AA rotation but may be kept on a short leash and moved back to the bullpen if their are struggles. Either way Gutierrez has a bright future ahead of him.

ETA: 2011
Projection: Either back of rotation starter with worm killing ground ball rates. Or the Twins closer of the future.
MLB Comparison: Fausto Carmona pre-location issues. Derrick Lowe, Chien-Meng Wang.

Prospect #9 Angel Morales

2010-03-26T12:06:00.000-07:00

Center Field and Right Field
Drafted 3rd Round, 2007, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy High School
Levels Played in 2009: A Beloit
Opening Day Age: 20

The Twins have grown accustom to acquiring high upside, toolsy outfielders over the years and Angel Morales is no exception to that. Morales burst on the scene in 2008 when he demonstrated his huge raw power potential hitting 15 home runs and slugging over .623 in the Appalachian League. Only 18 at the time Morales was seen as a steal in the 3rd round after finishing the year batting .301/.413/.623. The only down side to Morales' game was his swing and miss rate which would come back to him in 2009.

Morales would debut in full season ball in 2009 as a 19 year old. His raw swing and poor plate discipline came back to haunt him in the first half of the season as he was only hitting .215 come June. Morales was able to bounce back in the second half in a big way by hitting over .350 the final two months of the season to finish his season averages at .266/.329/.455. When looking at it quickly it is not entirely terrible for a 19 year old in his first season playing over 100 games. However, there is no getting around his strikeout rate. In 207 career games at 3 levels Angel Morales has struck out 220 times in comparison to just 68 walks. It is obvious that there is a hole in his swing and it will need to be corrected if he is going to continue to develop.

Morales has a lot of raw power generated from a relatively small frame. 6 feet 1, 185 pounds. As a 5 tool talent, Morales does everything average to above average. His power and defensive arm rank as his best 2 tools indicating there could be a permanent move to right field down the line. However, the Twins are starting to make it apparent they want all their outfielders to be experienced with all three positions so they do not have to learn on the job at the major league level. Denard Span had to do this in 2009 and it may have held him back from being even better then he was.

Morales does have a lot of talent. However in this day and age if there was one thing that can hold a player back from being a major leaguer it is striking out too much. Morales needs to work hard for the next 2 to 3 years to correct that in order to be able to be a Twins some day. He should begin the year in A+ Fort Myers as a 20 year old where the average age is over 22. It will be a great challenge for Morales to go against the better pitchers, bigger parks and the damp Florida air.

ETA: 2013
Projection: Morales is still very raw in all aspects of the game. But he can still be a plus defensive right fielder with 25 to 30 home runs and maybe 15-20 steals a season.
MLB Comparison: Right handed Curtis Granderson or Chris Young of the Diamondbacks.

Prospect #10 Adrian Salcedo

2010-03-25T07:24:00.000-07:00

Starting RHP
Signed as International Free Agent 2007, Dominican Republic
Levels Played in 2009: Rookie Gulf Coast League
Opening Day Age: 18 (turns 19 on April 24th)

Adrian Salcedo is what I like to call a mystery. Their are no public scouting video or even photos of him to date. However, Salcedo has not disappointed in his short stint with the Twins organization. After spending his age 17 in the Dominican Academy, he was sent to the Twins GCL for 2009. Salcedo was part of the best rotation in the league teaming with fellow teenagers BJ Hermsen and Blayne Weller.

He was always know for great control and he continued to show that in 62 innings only walking 3! In Addition to that he struck out 58 with a 1.46 ERA. Salcedo is as projectable as projectable gets. He already has above average to plus stuf, he stands 6 feet 4 and a thin 175 pounds and has very fluid mechanics and excellent control of the strike zone for a kid his age.

Last year Salcedo was armed with a low 90 to 92 MPH fastball with a power breaking pitch. Some scouts have not been able to decide whether his mid 80's spike curve ball is a slider. Either way it is already a plus pitch and can develop into a plus plus. In Twins camp this season, scouts have been able to get a glimpse of the young hurler for the first time. It is reported that his mechanics are top notch and he has added some velocity too. He is now sitting around 93 to 94. His fastball has good sink which allows him to have a ground ball to fly ball ratio of more then 2 to 1.

Salcedo already has a world of talent. If he continues to impress in camp he could contend to be in full season ball already as a 19 year old. I expect him to possibly be held back in extended spring training and possibly pitch at rookie ball and then be promoted to Beloit if he continues to over power lower level hitters. I read where a scout said that from what he saw this spring, Adrian Salcedo is a more impressive pitcher then Braves teenage pitching prospect Julio Teheran who has been ranked as high as 41 on some MLB top prospect lists. Salcedo is a guy to keep an eye on this year and could be the top pitching prospect in the system as soon as next year.

ETA: Late 2012 (he could be put on fast track as he gets to full season ball)
Projection: The off season improvements in velocity in addition to great mechanics indicate that Salcedo can be a top of the rotation starter.
MLB Comparison: He is to young and I have never seen him pitch. But just guessing according to his body type could resemble Jair Jurrjens.

Prospect #11 Max Kepler

2010-03-24T12:22:00.000-07:00

Center Field
Signed as International Free Agent from Germany (2009)
Levels Played in 2009: Not Available
Opening Day Age: 17

With the new revenues generated from Target Field, the Twins not only have been able to spend more money of major league roster but they also have been able to be a major player in the international markets. Max Kepler is a prime example of this. Still only 17, Kepler has future star written all over him. He was given the highest signing bonus ever ($800,000) for a player acquired out of Europe.

Kepler is a super athlete. His parents were both ballet dancers, which gives him his grace when manning the outfield. When Kepler signed with the Twins his parents quickly moved from Germany to Fort Myers, Florida and enrolled him in a local high school as a junior. The feeling was the development process was going to be slow considering that high school hours run into playing professional baseball. That quickly changed when it was discovered that Kepler received his GED in the off season.

Kepler is a physical specimen and a work out machine. When he signed is was a 6 foot 3 and a lean 175 pounds. Now, entering camp he is now over 200 pounds. Kepler is a 5 tool shed. He already has line drive power, incredible speed, and shows great athleticism when playing defense. Although not playing a professional game yet, it is possible that Kepler might develop into a better prospect down the road then Aaron Hicks.

Kepler is going to begin 2010 season in extended spring training and will head the the Gulf Coast League with what could be a potentially loaded lineup as he will be joining fellow 2009 signees Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco as well as Dominican League standout Wander Guillen. Kepler's development will be closely watched as he could be ready for full season ball sooner rather then later posing the question if he might make his major league debut before his 21st birthday.

ETA: 2014-2015
Projection: All star caliber CF with 30/30 potential. Will definitely be a fan favorite.
MLB Comparison: I read a comparison by Phil Rogers that said Mickey Mantle. I could not help but smile but its a little drastic. However, I will say he definitely fits the mold of a Matt Kemp.

Prospect #12 Joe Benson

2010-03-23T08:19:00.001-07:00

Left Field, Center Field, Right Field
Drafted 2006, 2nd Round (64th overall) Joliet, Illinois
Levels Played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers
Opening Day Age: 22

Going into this season Joe Benson should be a sleeper prospect to breakout. It may be questioned that how can a top 12 prospect still be considered a sleeper. Well Joe Benson only tapped into the high level potential he has in 2009. He was ranked as high as number 2 on Baseball America in 2007 behind Nick Blackburn. After two years of injuries and set backs, Benson finally showed his potential that made him a second round pick.

Benson played only 80 games at Fort Myers in 2009 after suffering a broken hand when he lost a fight with a concrete wall. He hit .285/.414/.403. Benson still has very raw power, but his size and strength should be able to start lifting the ball. The issue with him is still learning pitch recognition. Although he had 46 walks in 2009 through 80 games, he still struck out 74 times. To improve this it is all a matter of staying healthy. Benson has suffered some bad injuries included a broken vertebrate in 2008.

Joe Benson's potential is an exciting 5 tool player. He is one of the most athletic guys in the Twins system. He is a very fast base runner and covers a lot of ground in all three outfield positions. At 6 feet 2 and 210 pounds he is a special kid. For a guy who got on base over 41% of the time there is still a lot of room for improvement and that is a scary thing. He could eventually become a guy who literally can hit anywhere in the order. He had a good instructional league and is seeing time in big league camp, which could hint he could be sent to AA New Britain after only 80 games last year is Fort Myers. Either way Benson just needs to play a full season to further develop his potential 5 tool set.

ETA: September call up 2011, Challenge for opening day outfielder in 2012.
Projection: 5 tool player. Great defense, good OBP, solid batting average, home runs could be anywhere from 10 to 25 and an easy 25+ stolen bases.
MLB Comparison: Dexter Fowler and Alex Rios

Prospect #13 Rene Tosoni

2010-03-22T10:06:00.000-07:00

Right Field and Center Field
Drafted 2005, 36th round Chipola College, British Columbia
Levels Played in 2009: AA New Britain
Opening Day Age: 23

Rene Tosoni is one of those prospects that have already outperformed their draft status and now are close enough to make an impact at the major league level. Tosoni has been able to play through some of the issues that have taken away from his career. In 2006, he could not come to the States because of visa issues. In 2007 he played well in rookie ball and was promoted to Beloit but suffered an injury that cut his season short at 2 games. The Twins decided to start moving him along quickly in 2008 by letting him go straight to Fort Myers where he played pretty well (.300/.408/.414). The Twins believed that 42 games was enough for Tosoni to be ready for AA in 2009.

Tosoni was what of the Twins minor league top performers in 2009. He began do develop some power hitting 15 home runs while driving in 71 runs. This was in addition to 25 doubles. Tosoni's bat was recognized by being and Eastern League All Star, the MVP of the Futures Game and an invitation to the Arizona Fall League. .

Tosoni is not a big guy. He stands 6 feet tall and weighs a shade under 200 pounds. It might be safe to say that he does not have much more power to develop. As a right fielder, Tosoni does not have what some of the other outfielders have in the Twins system and that is a 4th and 5th tool. He is not the athlete of a Ben Revere or an Aaron Hicks. However, what he does have is success as higher levels.

Tosoni will begin the year in AAA Rochester as their right fielder. He should be one the first guy to look to call up in the minors if their any injuries to the Twins outfielders minus Denard Span. Tosoni has the ability to play all outfield positions but their are many who think that if Span were to ever to go down, that Ben Revere will be pulled from wherever he is.

ETA: 2009 or 2010
Projection: Everyday right or left fielder. Brings solid average, high OBP and average power (15-20 home runs)
MLB Comparison: Solid Comparison: Melkey Cabrera

Joe Mauer is staying!!!!

2010-03-21T15:39:00.000-07:00

Joe Mauer has inked a 8 year 184 million dollar deal that will keep him with the Twins through the 2018 season (age 34). The 2009 AL MVP is expected to make $23 million dollars per year which is half a million more then Mark Texiera.

Great day to be a Twins fan especially in the wake of Joe Nathan announcing this morning that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. The news came after the Twins beat up on the Tampa Bay Rays 12 to 3. The Twins showed potential of what their lineup can do this season. Mauer went 2 for 4 today upping his spring batting average to .471.

Prospect #14 Tyler Robertson

2010-03-21T08:20:00.001-07:00

Starting LHP
Drafted: 3rd round, 2006 Fair Oaks, California
Levels Played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers
Opening Day Age: 22

Tyler Robertson quickly made a name for himself in 2007 by dominating the Midwest League as a 19 year old. In 102 innings he had a 2.29 ERA and 123 strikeouts (10.8K/9 innings). The only pitcher to have a better strikeout rate in the Midwest league in 2007 was another 19 year old lefty, Clayton Kershaw. Their were high hopes for Tyler Robertson in 2008. He pitched well however a mid season arm injury cut his campaign short 83 innings. Most say the injury was caused by Robertson's corky mechanics that seem painful to watch. Robertson's motion has a lot of moving parts, and a big arm whip action from a 3/4 arm action nearly passing for side arm delivery. Although, not what you are supposed to teach to any pithcer, it does create a lot of deception which allows him to get his outs.

2009 might not have gone the way Robertson wanted. He was sent back to A+ ball. Although successful he was not as dominant as he once showed in 2007. He did pitch a career high 143 innings but only struck out 103 and his BAA went up from .226 to .247 in 2008 to .259 in 2009.

The reason why Robertson was so successful previously in his career was because he normally worked with a fastball in the 90-92 range. In 2009 he dropped into the mid 80's. Baseball America had a great report on him, saying some of his lost velocity may have been due to lack of long toss programs used throughout the season. It has been said that the Twins minor leaguers are to increase their long toss programs throughout the season to maybe get more stretched out and gain a little more velocity. Their is optimism that it will be able to work out for Roberson considering he is 6 feet 5 and over 220 pounds. In addition to his hidden fastball, Robertson has 3 above average to plus pitches starting with some call the best curve-ball in the system, and plus slider and a change up which is average to above average. Scouts say that if Robertson can better his fastball it will make is change up that much better just with velocity separation.

If Robertson is able to regain some of his lost velocity and make sure to stay healthy with his violent delivery, he could be making his major league debut sometime next year. The Twins really only have 2 solid left handed starters in the minors in addition to the 3 with major league experience (Liriano, Perkins, Duenseng). Robertson will begin 2010 in AA with a deep rotation. It is expected that Robertson will team up with David Bromberg, Deolis Guerra, Mike McCardell and Carlos Gutierrez.

ETA: Mid to late 2011
Projection: Middle of the rotation lefty with 4 pitches.
MLB Comparison: Nobody has mechanics resembling Robertson. But he has secondary pitches similar to Erik Bedard. Hopefully he can remain more healthy.

Joe Nathan: What Does the Future Hold?

2010-03-21T07:28:00.000-07:00

This morning The Twins and All Star closer Joe Nathan announced that Saturday's throw session did not go well and he will opt to have Tommy John surgery in the next week or two. This is sad news for Twins fans but expected. Up until yesterday I was about 80% sure that he was going to need to go this route. It was more of the fan side of me thinking he would be able to pitch through the pain. But that was not the case. Finally, moving forward their is a spot open now on the team. And one of the current guys in the pen looks to be getting a big promotion the the 9th inning barring a trade. I think there are good (+) and bad (-) things about that and I will run through them.

1. (-) With Papelbon and Rivera, Joe Nathan is one of the top 3 closers in baseball and his value of 47 saves in 2009 will be missed.

2. (+) Open spot may allow Anthony Slama break camp with the team. He has been a pleasure to have striking out 8 in 4 scoreless spring innings.

3. (-) If Pat Neskek is not ready to go, and a trade is not made, Glen Perkins might also break camp with the Twins.

4. (+) The Twins have some very talented long term closer options who are close to the majors. Carlos Gutierrez looks like he is going to take over that role in AA. Alex Burnett should be a late reliever in AAA. And 2009 draftees Billy Bullock and Ben Tootle are on a fast track to the majors with electric stuff.

5. (-) Matt Gurrier, Jesse Crain, and John Rauch are all ready to be free agents after the season. If anyone of the three take over the roll and are successful they might want to go on the open market and be a full time closer if Nathan returns next year.

6. (+) Type A compensation might be possible if Guerrier or Rauch have a great year in a walk year. And the Twins can collect a first round draft pick.

7. (+/-) If the Twins internal options do not work out then they might have to go out and make a deal. It is said that Heath Bell has a substantial price tag. But if it does not include any of Hicks, Gibson or Sano; then the Twins should negotiate.

8. (+/-) If Twins get Heath Bell and Nathan comes back next year, their could be an issue in 2011. They will both be free agents in 2012 with Nathan having a club option.

Leave comments if you think any of these scenarios are wrong or if their are any I left out.

Prospect #15 Billy Bullock

2010-03-19T09:32:00.000-07:00

Relief RHP
Drafted 2nd round, 2009 University of Florida
Levels Played in 2009: Elizabethton Twins Appalachian League, A Beloit
Opening Day Age: 22

The third of three consecutive relievers on this list has a world of talent. The Twins had a very successful draft in 2009. They were able to re-tool their farm system by selecting 4 college arms with their first 4 picks. Billy Bullock was the third one taken but he might have the most upside. ESPN's Keith Law said he was the best college closer in the 2009 draft. Bullock is a big power reliever, with a hard fastball and sharp breaking ball. U of Florida tried for a couple years to make him into a front line starter but he could never put it all together. He was bit wild, never had a third pitch and seemed to get over tired.

The Gators coach was a former minor league Twins pitching coach, Kevin O'Sullivan. He decided to turn Bullock into a closer and it panned out very well. In his Junior year he pitched a total of 47.2 innings, with a 2.64 ERA, 50 strikeouts, and 11 saves.

His transition to professional ball went quite smoothly as he dominated rookie ball throwing 7 more innings giving up 1 run, striking out 10 and only allowing 4 base runners. The Twins quickly decided that Bullock was ready for full season ball and was moved up to Beloit for the end of the season. Bullock stepped in right away as the Snappers closer and racked up 8 saves in 26 innings. He had a 2.73 ERA and struck out 35 batters (12.1 K/9). He some command issues with 12 walks, but his stuff was so good that he was able to overwhelm Midwest League hitters.

Billy Bullock arguably has the best fastball in the system. He works with an explosive fastball that ranges 94 to 97 MPH. He has been able to run it up to as high as 98 on the gun. He pairs that with a power slider to form a perfect combination for a dominant closer. Bullock stands at 6 feet 6 and weighs 225 pounds. He will have to fine tune his command issues because he is known for giving up a few walks and home runs. But his stuff is defintiely legit and he is in the place to be to learn some control. Bullock will most likely begin the year in Fort Myers. Depending on what the Twins do with former first rounder Carlos Gutierrez, he could get an early promotion to New Britain.

ETA: Late 2011, early 2012
Projection: He has closer stuff. He has closer makeup. He can be a closer.
MLB Comparison: Best case scenario he could be Jonathan Broxton.
Worse case maybe Grant Balfour.

Prospect #16 Alex Burnett

2010-03-19T08:50:00.000-07:00

Relief RHP
Drafted 12 round in 2005, Huntington, California
Levels Played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers and AA New Britain
Opening Day Age: 22

Alex Burnett was originally drafted by the Twins as a starter. He made his major league debut at age 17 and held his own in rookie ball for 2 years. 2007 and 2008, Burett demonstrated he was a bulldog pitcher, throwing a combined 299 innings in Beloit and Fort Myers. Alex Burnett was a solid starter pitcher, generally working with a fastball 91 MPH and a couple good secondary pitches.

2009 the Twins decided to make a move transitioning Burnett from a number 4 or 5 type starter to a power reliever. And it worked great. Burnett arguably had the best year of any Twins releiver at any level other then Joe Nathan in 2009. In two levels 78 innings, he gave up 50 hits, and ERA of 1.85 and 78 strikeouts. When Anthony Slama was promoted to Rochester, Burnett took over as the full time closer in New Britain. Burnett's success at the age of 21 earned him a invitation to the Arizona Fall League where he did not disappoint. He pitched 10 innings with a 3.38 ERA and struck out 11. He did struggle a bit with command with 10 walks but made up for it for how he handled left handers. Who went 1 for 18 against him.

Burnett worked with a low 90's fastball as a starter. As a reliever he hits 94-95 MPH consistently on the gun. He throws that with a straight change up, sluvry breaking ball and a big curve. The last 3 pitchers are said to need a little bit improvement but they do not need much fine tuning. Alex Burnett was rewarded for his work in 2009 by being put on the 40 man roster. MILB.com labels Burnett being on AAA Rochester Red Wings for this season. If this is the case he will defintiely be a September call up this year. And if their are struggles with anyone in the pen, expect him to be one of the first ones called up with Anthony Slama and Rob Delany.

ETA: Mid to late 2010
Projection: Big league reliever with 3 above average to plus pitches. Only 22 now, will definitely get an opportunity to be closer in his career.
Major League Comparison: Their are a ton of guys to compare Burnett to. You could say Heath Bell all the way to Tom "Flash" Gordon.

News, Notes and Thoughts 3/19

2010-03-19T08:06:00.000-07:00

Good morning Twins Territory. There are a couple things I want to go over before the weekend.

To start, Joe Nathan will play catch either Saturday or Sunday. This will probably be the end of his season because I do not see how he can be superman and strengthen the muscles around his elbow in just a week and a half. There was a report in USA today that Nathan had a 90% tear in his UCL which could not be more false. If he had that big of a tear he would not be able to pick up a spoon with out being in pain. The truth is it is in the range of 25% to 35% tear. That is why he think he will be able to throw. I just want to go out and say I have no problem with Joe Nathan giving this a chance. He has been one of the 3 best closers in all of baseball with Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera since he arrived in Minnesota. He has earned the right to play catch. Two weeks does not make a difference in the Twins plans. They are obviously preparing for the worst since they got the news. But I am not confident it will go well so I am hopeful the Twins make a move to be the closer. I am not ready for Matt Guerrier or John Rauch to be that guy.

Jack Steal of http://www.fanaticjacktalkstwins.blogspot.com/ was told by a source that the Twins had interest in acquiring LHP George Sherrill from the Dodgers for a package that would include Alexi Casilla and Glen Perkins. It that is the case I hope the Twins get it done. If there is something I learned from last year, it is you can never have too much pitching. And if that means we go into the season with 3 closer, (Sherrill, Nathan and Bell) I do not care. That will just make the Twins look so that better. Hah!

Speaking of Heath Bell there is another report coming from USA Today this morning that the Twins have been extensively scouting a trade with San Diego for All Star closer Heath Bell. I just want to put it out there that I really like Heath Bell. I do not care that he is 32 years old. He was ready to be the closer for 2 or 3 years waiting behind Trevor Hoffman. Finally when he got the chance he was great. He posted 42 saves and an ERA 2.71. He K/9 ratio is 10.2. He is durable after throwing 69.2 innings in 2009. Speaking of a pitcher this good, you would have to expect to give up a good prospect in return. And they should. I have already said before that there are only 3, maybe 4 untouchables in the Twins system. Those being Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson. The only wild card that I am iffy about is catcher Wilson Ramos due to Mauer really pissing me off as of late.

You might question why I have not said Ben Revere. That is because I would trade Ben Revere to San Diego for Heath Bell. ESPECIALLY if they took Glen Perkins too. If any team in the majors is dumb enough to take Glen off our hands we have to reward them. You have to give up stuff to get stuff and Ben Revere who is 18 months or 2 years away from the majors is defintiely worth an All Star closer to give the Twins a chance to win a playoff series.

I will be posting 2 prospects today because I will not be around Saturday.

Be sure to check out DW the Greats Blog http://twin-keys.blogspot.com/

And our Podcast that is Saturday Mornings 10 AM Central, 11 AM Eastern. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/dwthegreat

Prospect #17 Anthony Slama

2010-03-18T09:17:00.001-07:00

Relief RHP
Draft: 2006, 39th round
Levels played in 2009: AA New Britain and AAA Rochester
Opening Day Age: 26

It might be safe to say that Anthony Slama has been the best relief pitcher in the entire minor leagues since he debuted in 2007. Over the past 3 years, Slama has pitched in 5 levels with the following stat line.

140 appearances, 184 innings
1.86 ERA
68 Saves
.183 BAA
271 strikeouts. 13.2 K/9 and a 3.66 K/BB ratio

For lack of a better word he is dominant. In 2009 he was finally promoted to New Britain and then earned a mid season promotion to Rochester. Anthony Slama has been the closer right out of the gate at each level he has pitched. The question is if he has major league closer stuff. When looking at the stat line it is surprising to know that Slama works generally with a fastball that is 89 to 92 MPH. He also has a slider/change up pitch that mows down right handers. If there is something Slama does struggle with it is getting lefties out who his .292 off him in 2009.

Slama hides the ball extremely well against right handed hitters. His delivery allows his fastball to be sneaky fast and his slider look like a fall off the table pitch. He is able to keep the ball down in the zone to avoid the long ball. He has only allowed 5 home runs in his professional career, although all 5 of those came in his stint in New Britain.

With the injury to Joe Nathan their is a spot open in the bullpen. Also it has been made pretty clear that the Twins want to move Pat Neskek along rather slowly. Slama is still currently in big league camp and has impressed the coaching staff. He pitched 3 innings and has not given up a hit and has struck out 6. I would not be surprised if he broke camp with the Twins. But if he is sent back to Rochester it might now be for long. He definitely has the stuff to be a great situational righty out of the pen. And personally I can not wait for the nick name possibilities for him. My first one is Anthony Slama-Jama. And the other is Antony Slamas the door shut on the opposition.

ETA: He either breaks camp with Twins or is up in May or June
Projection: A late inning reliever who might get a shot to be a closer at some point in his career.
MLB Comparison: Not the same motion at all, but Slama has a delivery that is still hard to pick up and he gets strikeouts the same way Pat Neskek has in the past.

Prospect # 18 Chris Parmelee

2010-03-17T10:04:00.000-07:00

First Base, Right Field, Designated Hitter
Drafted 2006, 1st round (20th overall) Chino Hills, California
Levels Played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers
Opening Day Age: 22

The first position player on this prospect list is Chris Parmelee. Parmelee was considered the most polished high school bat in the 2006 draft. It has been somewhat of a slow process in his development but he took big steps forward in 2009, ranking as one of the top sluggers in the Florida State League. In a very pitcher heavy league, Parmelee ranked third in home runs (16), second in RBI (73) and first in walks (65). After struggling in more then 200 games in Beloit, Parmelee made some changes in shortening his swing which helped his contact rate a little bit more. Although Parmelee only hit .258 in 2009, it was a career high for him in full season ball.

Chris Parmelee was an all star in the Florida State League. He was the league's home run derby champion, he was rated as the 17th best prospect overall in the league by Baseball America and he was also invited to the Arizona Fall League. Overall it was a step in the right direction.

Parmelee was drafted for his bat. At the time Minnesota was a team notoriously known for not having many power hitters in their lineup. For this instance the Twins seemed to step away from drafting college pitchers and toolsy high school position players to draft a potential middle of the lineup guy who could either play RF or 1B. So far the Twins have tried hard to keep Parmelee in the outfield but his 230 pound frame has made it difficult for him to do so. It is a shame because Parmelee has a plus arm. It the long run he will most likely end up a first baseman. Which is not a bad thing either. At this point in my opinion, I think it is time that the Twins just plant Parmelee at first base so he can continue to develop his bat.

It is expected Chris will be added to the 40 man roster after the 2010 season. Parmelee will be promoted in 2010 to AA New Britain. Finally stepping away from the Florida big parks, Parmelee has a chance to hit 20 plus home runs. If he does that and ups his average to the .270 mark he will be a player to keep an eye on for the future.

Just to put in perspective. Parmelee hit .258/.359/.441 in 2009. If he were to get more contact raising his average 10-15 points it makes him a more feared hitter, which means he will draw more walks and his OBP could hover around .385 to .400 and then we go from talking about a guy who barley cracks .800 OPS to a guy who will flirt with .875 to .900. It is a lot to ask but he raised his average in 2007 and 2008 from the low .230s to the high .250s in 2009. If he even makes half the improvements he did last year we could start talking about a exciting prospect again.

ETA: September call up in 2011 or Early 2012
Projection: Middle of the order power 1B. Lots of walks. Lots of strikeouts.
MLB Comparison: Bat will resemble Jack Cust or Chris Davis. If he hits the 90th percentiles (which is a stretch) then he could be Mark Reynolds, Carlos Pena or Adam Dunn.

Prospect #19 Deolis Guerra

2010-03-16T10:53:00.000-07:00

Starting RHP
Acquired 2008 the Johan Santana trade from New York Mets.
Levels played in 2009: A+ Fort Myers and AA New Britain.
Opening Day Age: 20, (turns 21 on April 17th)

It is very hard for me to write about Deolis Guerra. I do not know whether to portray him negatively and call him a bust or still be optimistic and say he does not turn 21 for another month. The fact is both cases are true so I will try and explain both parts of the Guerra argument. Deolis Guerra was supposed to be the hidden gem of the Johan Santana trade 2 years ago. He was the reason why Minnesota did not go after Mike Pelfrey or Fernado Martinez. At the time he was an 18 years old and just finished up a full season in A+ Florida State League. In addition he represented the Mets in the Futures Game. Guerra was so highly coveted because he was 6 feet 5, and flashed a fastball that sat in the low 90's, touching 95. To go along with that he had a devastating change up that is still considered the best in the Twins system the past three years.

So what happened? Did the Twins play around with his mechanics? Was he really even that good with the Mets? I still do not know. All I know is that Guerra has had a rough 2 years in the Twins organization, 2008 being the worst. Although he won 11 games, Guerra had an ERA of 5.47 in 130 innings and a dreadful K/BB of 71 to 71. Guerra was 19 at the time and took major steps back and was expected to repeat the Florida State League for a third time in 2009. The low to mid 90's fastball was barley cracking 90. He was just a mess. The only positive thing Baseball Prospectus could say about the young righty was that he was still quite tall.

Although still nothing great Guerra had huge improvements with his location in 2009. And finally got a change of scenery with a promotion to New Britain. He increased his innings from 130 to 149. He cut his walks from 71 to 42. He raised his strikeouts from 71 to 106. In the FSL he lowered his ERA from 5.47 to 4.69. These numbers are not great but the improvements are. Guerra's BABIP in 2009 was well over .300. Basically meaning he had poor defense behind him or there were a lot of lucky drops. Baseball Prospectus has a new stat known as SIERA which adjusts a pitchers ERA according to league average defense, park size among other things. It calculates that Guerra's ERA could have been somewhere between 3.96 and 4.41. Something to build upon.

Guerra definitely had some outings where he got rocked. But he definitely had some outings where he looked like an ace. Whether that be when he threw 7 innings of no hit ball or the 7 innings, 12 strikeout performance, Guerra has shown that he is not a complete dud yet. In 2009 his fastball sat comfortably 88-91. His change up is still a plus, plus pitch. He is still very durable by increasing his innings substantially for the past 2 years. He is still 21 years old in AA where the average age of pitchers is 24. He is on the 40 man roster. The Twins still have confidence that he will be a major league pitcher someday. I still think he has the makeup to do that too. Maybe not the ace in the hole we all once thought. But definitely a middle of the rotation type guy.

ETA: 2011 if he breaks out. He will be 22. 2012 if he stays at this pace.
Projection: A middle of the rotation type starter. With maybe one breakout All Star campaign.
MLB Comparison: Freddy Garcia from 1999 to 2005 might be something to look at.

News, Notes and Thoughts 3/16

2010-03-16T08:26:00.000-07:00

Few topics I want to briefly cover today before the Twins face Baltimore at noon. First being Joe Nathan, second is the two prospects still in big league camp, third is Frasisco Liriano and finally how can you not have a blog post with out mentioning Joe Mauer.

To start. Their was a twitter post by a very respected writer today Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus speaking about the injury to Joe Nathan. Just to quote the tweet "@injuryexpert: Told that Joe Nathan has an incomplete tear of his UCL -- "25%, maybe a bit more, not in the worst location." #twins". If this is the case for Nathan it could mean either false hope or a chance that he will be able to pitch in 2010. I am still on the bandwagon that he will no pitch this year, but if he does you have to expect he would at least still begin the year on the DL to build up the muscles around the elbow and when he does come back he will be on a strict pitch count. No closing on back to back nights, and he will probably not exceed 60% to 65% of the 70 innings he threw in 2009.

Topic 2 revolves around 2 of the Twins prospects who have made it through first round of demotions and still remain with the big club. Those being catcher, Wilson Ramos and center fielder, Ben Revere. Both have shown why they are so highly regarded among the Twins system and why they will be in the majors sooner rather then later. But the ideas floating around to bring them to Minnesota out of camp are nuts. I understand the logic, people want to have the best 25 players possible on the roster. However in a modern MLB with arbitration and trading that simply is just not possible. Remember Wilson Ramos only played 60 games in AA New Britain last year and Revere was only in A+ Fort Myers. These "kids" still have a good amount to learn about the game and they NEED to play every day. Not be backups to Joe Mauer and Denard Span.

Topic 3 is Fransisco Liriano. Liriano had a mixed outing yesterday against the Florida Marlins. He went 3 innings, gave up 4 hits and 3 runs including a mammoth shot to number 3 prospect in all of baseball Mike Stanton. He also did not walk a batter and struck out 6 making some of the Marlins look silly. So far this spring the Twins are doing the right thing getting Liriano stretched out and keeping him in competition for the rotation because that is where he belongs. The rumor or Fransisco Liriano being the closer is just a fabrication the media created because they want to build up a stir. From what I have heard Liriano and the closer role has not been mentioned directly as a solution for the Twins, rather just an idea to was thrown around. I am sure it was the same way every relief pitcher is the system's name has been thrown around as well. The fact is no one knows who the Twins closer will be. Fransisco Liriano is a starter and he will be a starter. 2006 and 2008 are 2 prime reasons why he should be a starter. There is not one good reason someone can give me for him to close other then he has electric stuff. He has worked very hard for the past 5 months to get back into the starting rotation and help this team win a championship. Let him do it. So far this spring he has thrown a total of 7 innings. He has a respectable 3.86 ERA with 1 walk and 12 strikeouts.

Final topic no surprise is Joe Mauer Contract Distraction as Jack Steal puts it. There is more reason to believe that a deal is closer then we think. Mauer's eventual contract will be unique in the sense that it is the second time a team will try to give close to $200 million dollars to a player without having one of the top payrolls in baseball. The Texas Rangers tried this and failed miserably so Bill Smith and management are being very careful in how they allocate their costs to make sure that the team remains competitive for the future. A good sign of this is the contract extensions to Nick Blackburn and Denard Span. Both of these players are now locked up for the next 4 and 5 years respectfully with club options. Standard forecast models are used to predict what a principles situation will be like in the future. The best way to help get a true forecast model is to limit the variables possible in the formula. Bill Smith wants to know exactly what the year by year allocation of money to his team will be able to fully commit $20 million dollars per year to Joe Mauer. And locking up guys like Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Scott Baker and Nick Blacburn who are all big names on this team help Bill Smith get a better understanding of how his model will read and if it will be feasible.

Prospect #20 Matt Bashore

2010-03-15T09:24:00.001-07:00

Starting LHP
Drafted: Supplemental 1st Rd 2009 (46th overall), Indiana University
Levels Played in 2009: Elizabethton Twins, Rookie Appalachian League
Opening Day Age: 22

Going into the 2009 college season, Matt Bashore was seen as one of the more polished college lefties among the 2009 MLB draft class. Bashore just finished up a Sophmore campaign where he went 7-3 with a 3.59 ERA and struck out 86 batters in 82.2 innings. Bashore's breakout season earned him First Team all Big Ten honors and projections to go mid to late first round in the draft.

2009 did not go as planned. Although Bashore was a horse for the Hoosiers he finished with a 7-5 record and a 4.08 ERA. Bashore struck out 108 batters which was one back of the single season record at Indiana. Heading into the draft, Bashore's regression in ERA and allowed teammate Eric Arnett to jump ahead of him on draft boards. Arnett was the 26th pick by the Brewers when he came out of nowhere in 2009 showing off a mid 90's fastball to go along with his 6'6", 220 pound build.

The reason why Bashore was so highly regarded was because he flashed a low to mid 90's fastball from the left side as a sophomore. In 2009 he took a major step back, usually working in the high 80's ti low 90's. It was not until late in the 2009 season where his fastball began to show life again. Bashore is not a big kid, standing 6 feet 2 at around 200 pounds resembling another Big Ten pitching star in the Twins system (Glen Perkins).

After signing for slot money, Bashore pitched just 2 inning in the Appalachian League before being shut down with arm troubles. There has been no news yet whether Bashore will be ready to pitch in 2010. Their is reason to believe that surgery could be the best long term solution for him to prolong his professional career and make him the most effective pitcher possible. If he comes into camp healthy, signs point to him being held back in extended spring training to build his arm strength back up and then send him to low A Beloit. If everything works out Matt Bashore could be the best left hander in the entire Twins system and could move fast. If not he could miss all of 2010 trying to recover from TJ.

ETA: Late 2012 to early 2013
Projection: A solid #3 type left handed pitcher with solid to above average stuff.
MLB Comparisons: Best Case Scenario- John Danks
Worst Case Scenario- Glen Perkins

Prospect #21 B.J. Hermsen

2010-03-14T16:27:00.000-07:00

Starting RHP
Drafted: 2008 6th Round, Manchester, Iowa
Levels Played in 2009: Rookie GCL Twins
Opening Day Age: 20

The Twins organization is beyond known for coveting strike throwing machines over power arm projects. B.J. Hermsen falls right in line with the type of pitcher the Twins love. What makes Hermsen unique is his physical stature and surprising athletic ability. Hermsen stands at 6 foot 6 and weighs over 230 pounds. The big right hander passed on a full scholarship to play quarterback for Oregon State to pursue a career in major league baseball. A $650,000 signing bonus had a little to do with that.

Hermsen was sent to GCL Twins in 2009 where he showed that he was more of a pitcher then a thrower. Hermsen's ability to repeat a smooth and easy delivery at his size makes the Twins very excited about his projection. After staying back in extended spring training, Hermsen through 53 innings for the GCL Twins and dominated. He was 6-2 with a 1.35 ERA and a 42 to 4 K/BB ratio.

Those numbers and that size can speak volumes but their are some question marks. When you hear a 6 foot 6 pitcher dominating the way he does, you would assume that he is a Roy Halladay type power pitcher. However that is not the case with Hermsen. He usually has a fastball in the range of 87-89 consistently and topping out 90-91. When pitching he is more focused on pounding the bottom of the strike zone and working quickly to get outs as fast as possible. Which is a great thing to know for a young pitcher. He also has a slider and a change up but uses then to induce early contact rather then getting swings and misses.

BJ Hermsen definitely has a bright future. I expect him to put an extra 2 or 3 MPH on his fastball as he gets more and more comfortable with his delivery over the years and should be a true innings eater. The is a question whether he will return to extended spring training and then off to Elizabethtown or put right in full season ball. His body is definitely ready for lots of innings now, but the Twins are known for moving their high school pitchers along rather slowly. I expect him to be held back a little in camp and then off to Beloit similar to what they did with Tyler Robertson. He will probably have a total inning count around 100.

ETA: 2013
Projection: Number 3 of 4 type starter who gets quick outs and goes deep into games.
MLB Comparison: Brad Penny, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey

Twins extend Denard Span

2010-03-13T09:58:00.000-08:00

Saturday morning, the Minnesota Twins announced that they have extended CF Denard Span to a 5 year deal with a 6 year club option. This deal will buy up all of Denard's arbitration years for about $16.5 million dollars and first year of free agency for possibly $9 million dollars.

The way the deal breaks down goes like this:

2010: $750,000

2011: $1 million

2012: $3 million

2013: $4.75 million

2014: $6.5 million

2015: Club option for $9 million ($500,000 buyout)

Span has established himself as one of the better lead off hitters and center fielders in the American League. After being drafted 20th overall in 2002, Span has had the 2 best years of his career in 2008 and 2009 at the major league level. He just turned 26 in February and will be under contract as he enters his prime. In 2009 Span was great with a .311/.392/.411 line along with 23 stolen bases and an AL leading 10 triples.

Since the approval to break ground on Target Field, the Twins have been able to lock up now 6 of their core players including 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and this morning Denard Span. Of the six names 5 of these guys were drafted by the Twins and 4 of them in the first three rounds.

Again he Twins are showing over and over throughout this off season that they are committed to winning by locking up internal stars (Blackburn and Span), making trades (Hardy), free agent signings (Condrey, Thome and Hudson) and the eventual resigning of all world catcher Joe Mauer.

Saturday Morning 3/13 10 AM Central

2010-03-13T07:33:00.000-08:00

Want to here some Twins talk before the first televised game of the year? Listen to my radio show from 10AM-11AM this morning. CoHosted by myself and DW The Great of Twin-Keys.blogspot.com. Guests will include Jeffery Schwenn of http://twinszealot.blogspot.com/, TJ DeSantis, who produces The Show with Seth Stohs , Fanatic Jack of http://fanaticjacktalkstwins.blogspot.com/ and Andrew Kneeland of http://www.twinstarget.com/

Call-in Number: 1(646) 727-1345
Link: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/dwthegreat/2010/03/13/countdown-to-opening-day

I was also on Fanatic Jack's podcast last night. If you are interested you can check it out here: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jack-steal/2010/03/13/24-days

The first Twins game that is televised is today. Tune at 12 Noon on FSNorth.

Outlook on 2010 Season

2010-03-12T14:55:00.000-08:00

The Twins are looking to build upon their 2009 campaign which ended with a win in game 163 to clinch the American League Central Division. A beat up and inexperienced team was no match for the eventual World Series Champion New York Yankees even though their were 2 games where Minnesota should have won (game 2 and 3).

Right as the off season began, Bill Smith got right back to work trading super toolsy center fielder Carlos Gomez for former All Star shortstop JJ Hardy. During the off season Minnesota made other moves such as picking up Michael Cuddyer's 2011 option, signing reliever; Clay Condrey, future Hall of Famer; Jim Thome and Gold Glover' Orlando Hudson. All that remains was an extension for defending American League MVP; Joe Mauer.

As the Twins arrived in Fort Myers for spring training all seemed to be going smoothly. The team was getting along. Justin Morneau, Kevin Slowey and Pat Neshek all seemed to recovered well from their off season surgeries and rehabs, and potential stars Delmon Young and Fransisco Liriano came into camp in the best shape of their lives and were both ready to take the next step towards stardom.

Then came last Saturday's spring game. After 20 pitches All Star closer Joe Nathan had to exit the game after experiencing what was called soreness and stiffness in his pitching elbow. All indications were that the move was strictly precautionary. On Sunday, Nathan was then sent back to Minneapolis to have CT scans in MRI's done on the elbow. Again, strictly precautionary. Tuesday, those precautionary, trips and scans indicated that arguably the best pitcher on the Twins staff has a significant tear in his UCL and could miss not only the 2010 season but the rest of his career. The season that looked so promising, started to go down the tubes. What was the curse of Minnesota sports which struck again in January when the Tracy Porter picked off Brett Favre to cap off a fumble fest in the NFC Championship seemed to strike one of the nicest most impressive guys the Twins had.

However, this is not the end! Although this is a hit to the season this is still too good of a team to be eliminated for title contention already and here is why.

Reason 1: They are going to slug. This is the best Twins lineup I have ever seen. CHONE projects them to average around 5.80 runs per game. In 2009 the Twins were 4th in the American League in runs scored behind the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox (who lost Jason Bay). When you look top to bottom the only hole in the line up is coming from the 9 hole where the first couple months is expected to be platooned by Nick Punto and Brendan Harris. The best part of this is the only thing these guys have to do is mainaing a .330+ OBP to be able to turn over the line up where Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young and Hardy can do their damage. And if Danny Valencia can play well in AAA and take that over to the big team in June or July, that is a scary thought.

Reason 2: They actually have a bench. When the Twins when on their stretch run in September they relied on everyday players to be Carlos Gomez in CF, Jose Morales at DH, Nick Punto at 2B, Matt Tolbert at 3B, and Micheal Cuddyer at 1B. After trades and signings, we now know Gomez will never make a crucial mistake in a Twins unifrom. Jose Morales will only see playing time if Joe Mauer needs a day off or if it is the 19th innings of an exhausting division game. Matt Tolbert will have to impress in spring to even make the 25 man roster. Nick Punto will go back to his super utility role by the time June rolls around. And Michael Cuddyer will park back in RF with the return of 2006 MVP Justin Morenau. Oh yeah and did I mention that Minnesota has a future Hall of Famer Jim Thome now as their big bat off the bench. Look out Bobby Jenks.

Reason 3: The rotation will and has to improve. After a very successful 2008, the young 5some of Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Perkins and Blackburn fell apart in 2009, with Nick Blackburn being the only one to not land on the DL. Causing the team to have to trade for Carl Pavano (which was a great deal) and rely on young guys like Brian Duenseng and Jeff Manship. In 2010 Scott Baker will start opening day and may not be as good as he was in 2008 with a 3.45 ERA but definitely not as bad as he was in 2009 with a 4.27 ERA. The new $14 million dollar man Nick Blackburn should take on the number 2 role with his bulldog mentality and ability to eat inning. 2008 and 2009 were identical for Captain Blackbeard and there is reason to believe he can continue on in the future. The number 3 spot will be taken on by Carl Pavano which should be able to take steps forward in 2010. He had a BABIP right around .330 with an ERA of over 5.00. Basically meaning he either had terrible defense behind him or lucky spots balls would drop. In 2010 Pavano will have a strong defense up the middle lead by Mauer, Hudson, Hardy and Span. His ERA should be somewhere in the low 4.00's, maybe high 3's if he has a great year. The 4 spot will be taken by Kevin Slowey. Unfortunately this is the guy I am most worried about in 2010. He is coming off major wrist surgery that left 2 screws permanently left in his wrist. Now Kevin is not a stuff guy by any means. He works with a 2 seam fastball that is about 87-90 MPH. Slowey gets by with painting the black and not walking ANYBODY. With a guy who has such a good feel for the plate it is interesting to see how he reacts to his wrists feeling different for the fist time in his life. So far this spring he has seemed to prove me wrong by not giving up a run. The wild card on every one's lists in Fransisco Liriano. Liriano right now is the favorite for the 5th spot in the rotation barring any retardation by Twins management to move him to the closers role. Since the end of 2009, everything done by the former phenom has been positive. He had an incredible showing in the Dominican Winter League finishing off as the game 9 winner with a line of 5 innings, 1 hit, 0BB and 10K. Radar guns although sometimes skewed had his fastball ranging from 93 to 96 and his slider 86-90. I admit I was pumped when I was watching this on ESPN 360. Liriano showed up in camp excited and mind clear for the season. Manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Andreson said the ball is exploding out of his hand and his slider has looked as good as when they first saw it in 2006. Liriano's first 2 spring starts have showed a lot. In 2 games he has a total of 4 innings, 2 hits, 1BB and 6K. His fastball has been clocked as high as 93 but is expected to get higher as spring goes along when he starts to put more and more effort into his outings. Liriano is literally an ace in the hole. If he can do what we all think he can if gives the Twins a face to their pitching staff that can match up to the likes of Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and Jake Peavy.

Reason 4: Deep Bullpen. Joe Nathan is gone. Possibly forever and he was only a handful of saves from setting the all time Twins mark. It is a sad and unfortunate situation for Nathan and the Twins but it is not the end. Out of a possible 1548 innings in a 162 game season Joe Nathan usually pitches anywhere from 65 to 70 innings. That is right around 5% of the time. To say that 5% of a teams season can decide whether they make the playoffs is ludicrous. The Twins have a very deep bullpen. And they have at least 3 arms in the minor leagues who can be willing to take new open spot (Rob Delany, Anthony Slama, Alex Burnett.) As for who the closer will be I have no clue. I expect the player to not be named until the end of March. The obvious favorite for it it Matt Guerrier. Next in line would probably be John Rauch. Both are worthy options. My wild card for it is Jesse Crain. Crain's first half of the season was atrocious (ERA=8.15). It was so bad that Crain pitched nearly double the innings in the second half and could only lower his ERA to 4.70 for the season. However his post All Star break numbers were really great. He regained his mid 90's fastball which made his breaking pitches look a lot better. Crain threw 17 innings in the first half to get his ERA over 8 but threw 34 more innings after the break with a 2.91 ERA with 30K, 0HR and a .217 BAA.

All in all the season is definitely still going to be a positive. The loss of Joe Nathan is big however the Twins have a top 10 minor league organization a surplus of outfielders and pitchers at all levels. It could be enough to lure over a Jason Frasor or Heath Bell at the right price. My pick for the division crown will still go to Minnesota, however it will be a little closer race now with Nathan gone. Chicago and Detroit both have good teams and will make the season competitive.