Monday, May 24, 2010

Twins Trade Options?

FOX Sports just came out with a list of 10 players that need to be traded. Considering that the Twins have a very deep team and deep farm system I was very interested to see if it was possible for Minnesota to make a run at any of these guys.

Guys of a 0% chance of trade

Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers, age 25
Brewers are going to do everything to keep Prince. He wants more money then Joe Mauer and Mark Texiera got. Twins don't have a place for him anyway with Morneau and Kubel. But it would be really cool to go into a game with Mauer, Morneau and Fielder hitting 3,4,5 to scare the hell out of New York pitching. But again, NO CHANCE.

Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals, age 26
I am going to shoot this down right away. Not for the Twins. They would love to get Soria. But their is no way the Royals would trade this guy in the division. The Royals still believe they will be competitive with in 2 years. Especially with prospects like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Motgomrey a year or less away.

Heath Bell, San Diego Padres, Age 32
At the beginning of the year I was all about Health Bell. However I did not expect the Padres to play this well. And their pitching is good enough to keep it up all year which means Bell or even Adrian Gonzalez are not going anywhere.

Kevin Millwood, Baltimore Oriels, Age 35
Twins have an over the hill guy going for one last run in Carl Pavano. Millwood is a nice player but is not the type of guy the Twins need to get over the top.

Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox, Age 36
Lowell has no place on Boston anymore. He still has the bat but the range is pretty much gone at 3rd base. The Twins really need some defense to come out of that 3rd base hole and Lowell can not provide it.

Small chance but will never work.

Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros, age 32.
Oswalt recently said that he wanted out of Houston. For a guy who has been the ace of a mediocre team for the past 10 years and has only been to the post season twice, I can understand his frustration. Just to be quick, I do not think it work out for the Twins. The 2 biggest trade chips the Twins would move would not work in Houston. Wilson Ramos is a great prospect but the Astros have Jason Castro close and ready. Twins could use Ben Revere but Astros already have Michael Bourn, a speedy gold glove outfielder. To be honest I am not too high on Oswalt anyway. He is having a great year this season but before that has regressed every season since 2006. I also do not think he will cut it in the AL. See "Sheets, Ben". Finally, money. Twins are pushing their budget to record highs and Oswalt has over $30 million dollars left on his deal through 2012. If and that is a big if a deal were to be worked out it would work one of two ways. Twins take a large portion of the remaining contract and give less prospects. Or Astros pay a lot of the money left on the deal and Twins dish out higher echelon prospects.

Chances of a Trade for Roy Oswalt: Less then 5%

Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks, age 29
Dan Haren would be a dream for the Twins. He has had success in the AL with the A's in the past. Arizona has said on a number of occasions that Haren is not for sale. But after a second consecutive season of disappointment in Arizona, the DBacks may want to consider what they can get for the still 29 year old. He is still under contract through 2012 at a little over $11 million per season. What would the Twins have to give up. Because Arizona would be trading their ace, they would probably want a pitcher in return. First name that comes to mind is Kyle Gibson. This I would say no to. Gibson has potential to be Haren and for 6 years at rookie and arbitration money. Other names out there are Wilson Ramos, Carlos Gutierrez, and Adrian Salcedo.

Chance of a Trade for Haren: Less then 10%
Best Deal for Twins: Wilson Ramos, David Bromberg, Adrian Sacledo
Best Deal for DBacks: Kyle Gibson, Adrian Salcedo, Anthony Slama

These packages sound like a lot but remember Haren is a proven ace pitcher and Arizona does not want to get rid of their guy. They can ask for whatever they want. A guy like this requires 3 top 10 guys in return.

Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners, age 31
Cliff Lee is in the final year of his deal and will in fact enter free agency. A guy who won the Cy Young in 2008 and then took a team within 2 wins of a World Championship in 2009 will get big money. Lee could get something in the range of 5 years at $90+ million, better then AJ Burnett, John Lackey and Josh Beckett. Twins could go after Lee now and RENT him for 2010 season. It would only take one top player. Similar trade to this would be what Oakland and St. Louis did last year with Matt Holliday for top prospect Brett Wallace. Mariners need a catcher and a power bat. Wilson Ramos provides both of those things. Cliff Lee would leave in free agency but would get 2 first round picks in return after Lee scores big in free agency.

Possibility of Trade : Now Less then 20% but that can grow as season goes along.
Best Trade Scenario: Wilson Ramos straight for Cliff Lee

Reaching for the Stars:
David Wright, New York Mets, age 27
This was the biggest fish in the list I saw for Fox Sports. With good 3B hard to come by Wright might be one of the 4 best in all of baseball. He is definitely on a down year and his numbers have shot down since the move to Citi Field. I still think the Mets would be crazy to trade Wright but the return they could get for him would but huge. In 2006 Wright signed a 6 year $55 million dollar deal that will be up in 2013. This is the face of the franchise. The Mets fan base would never forgive Omar Minaya for doing this and the odds of it happening are minuscule. What the Twins would have to give up would be huge. Mets need pitching and outfield help. They also have a 3B they could move to take Wright's spot until super prosepct Wilmer Flores is ready 2 or 3 years down the road.

Possibilty of trade: Less the 1%

Trade scenarios:
Package 1: Aaron Hicks, David Bromberg, Wilson Ramos, Danny Valencia
Package 2: Kyle Gibson, Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos, Danny Valencia

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